Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

Vote share for Left Front (CPI-CPI(ML)-CPM-SUCI-RSP-FBL) is around 3.4%  Vote share for Third Front (SP-NCP-JKAM-SJP-SSP-NPP) is around 3.1%.  BSP is at around 2.0%.  Independents got 9.4% of the vote which is surprising to me.

[jaichind]

The winner of the election is Lalu Yadav, who was key to this stunning comeback.  RJD won more votes and seats than JD(U) even though it was considered to have a tougher set of seats to run in. 

[jaichind]

HAM most likely will only win 1 seats, that of Jitan Ram Manjhi.  Manjhi ran in two seats and won in one of them.  Rest of HAM bit the dust.

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN had planned to release an exit poll in its post election program.  It has commissioned  Axis APM to conduct this exit poll.  But when the results of this exit poll, the results were so out of line with every other exit poll CNN-IBN decided to not present it on its TV program.  The  Axis APM poll had

Grand Alliance 176 NDA 62 with the INC itself getting 27 seats out of the 40 it was contesting.   It also had Grand Alliance with 48% of the vote versus NDA 36%.   CNN-IBN asked for the raw data from Axis APM and was rejected.   This poll is the mirror image of the Today's Chanakya.

Axis APM now looks like genius.  

BTW, my projection

It seems that looking at all the firm that did a pre-poll survey AND an exit poll, the exit poll is always more pro-Grand Alliance that the pre-poll survey.  It seems to me that the momentum is on the side of the Grand Alliance and most likely most exit polls are underestimating such a momentum.    Today's Chanakya who was the most accurate in 2014 LS calls for a NDA landslide just like Axis APM who was the most accurate in the Delhi 2015 Assembly elections calls for a Grand Alliance landslide.  I will just consider both canceling each other out.  If I had to guess I will call for a signification Grand Alliance victory.  Something like

Grand Alliance     145       45%
NDA                      80       40%

Was pretty good and pretty much beat every other project other than Axis APM.  And even in vote share I managed to beat Axis APM.

[jaichind]

Grand Alliance       177
NDA                        60
Others                      6  (4 independents, 2 CPI(ML)(L))

[jaichind]

It is interesting that the NDA vote share in Bihar will be around 35% which pretty much matches NDA vote share in 2014  Jharkhand Assembly when NDA (BJP+AJSU) won 35.5% of the vote and won a majority of seats.  The difference is the anti-NDA bloc managed to fuse in Bihar whereas in  Jharkhand the anti-NDA vote was split 3 ways between JMM, (JVM+AITC) and (INC+RJD+JD(U)).  Same for Haryana  2014 Assembly election where BJP won 33.3% of the vote and won a majority due to the split of the non-NDA vote between INC and (INLD+SAD).

[jaichind]

Looks like the NDA is settling into the 35% front.  It wins around 35% of the vote in places where it is relevant no matter what and weather it wins or loses is a function of how well the anti-NDA vote is consolidated.  Very similar to INC in the 1950s-1980s where it as the 42% party.

[jaichind]

SHS whose relationship with BJP has been spiraling downward in Maharashtra to the point where a break in the alliance most likely is coming soon could not contain is glee at these results.  SHS showered praise on the Grand Alliance and ecstatically celebrated the defeat of the NDA.  The idea here is that with BJP and Modi weakened then SHS can get even more aggressive with the BJP in Maharashtra to demand its pound of flesh.

[jaichind]

Grand Alliance       177  (80 RJD, 71 JD(U), 26 INC)
NDA                        60  (53 BJP, 4 LJP 2 RLSP, 1 HAM)
Others                      6  (4 independents, 2 CPI(ML)(L))

[jaichind]

Grand Alliance       178  (80 RJD, 71 JD(U), 27 INC)
NDA                        59  (53 BJP, 3 LJP 2 RLSP, 1 HAM)
Others                      6  (4 independents, 2 CPI(ML)(L))

[jaichind]

INC actually did very well as it will most likely win 27 out of 41 seats.  Most of the 41 seats it contesting it had to take on the NDA in areas with Upper Caste strength.  INC managed to win a lot of these seats with Upper Caste candidates which pulled in some Upper Caste votes plus OBC/Muslim consolidation against NDA.

[jaichind]

One of the reasons why CNN-IBN refused to air Axis APM exit poll was that  Axis APM projected INC to win 27 seats which CNN-IBN found to be totally impossible.  But INC is now on target to win exactly 27 seats as an egg in the face of CNN-IBN.

[jaichind]

Grand Alliance       178  (80 RJD, 71 JD(U), 27 INC)
NDA                        58  (53 BJP, 2 LJP 2 RLSP, 1 HAM)
Others                      7  (4 independents, 3 CPI(ML)(L))

Vote share seems to be

Grand Alliance     41.9%
NDA                    34.1%   

[jaichind]

NDTV getting it wrong in the early phases of the vote count.





As did India Today





At the same time CNN-IBN was much closer to the mark





and then

[jaichind]

Premature celebrations at BJP headquarters when various TV channels projected NDA victory.

[jaichind]

It seems other than issues with various news stringers at the vote count, another reason why the the initial trends were wrong has to do with postal votes.  Postal votes are counted first and it seems in retrospect the postal votes when very heavy in favor of NDA.  That they were counted first gave a false impression that NDA was ahead when in fact it was not. 

[jaichind]

This is the first gain for the InC in Bihar since 1985, from what I can find.

I'm guessing the BJP have been hurt from all these cow stories?

Correct on first count.  First net gain in terms of seats for INC in Bihar since 1985. 
I think what did BJP in was a lack of Hindu consolidation in fact of clear OBC Muslim consolidation.   BJP's allies did very poorly.  They were suppose to bring in the OBC and Dalit votes and they clearly failed.   

[jaichind]

All seats called
                            
                           Contested          Won          Vote Share
Grand Alliance           243             178              41.9%
   RJD                        101               80              18.4%  
   JD(U)                     101               71              16.8%
   INC                          41               27                6.7%

NDA                          243             58               34.1%
   BJP                        157              53               24.4%
   LJP                          42               2                  4.8%
   RLSP                       23               2                  2.6%
   HAM                        21               1                  2.3%

Left Front                                      3                 3.5%
   CPI(ML)(L)              98                3                 1.5%
   CPI                         98                0                 1.4%
   CPM                        43                0                 0.6%

Third Front                                    0                  2.9%
   SP                         135               0                  1.0%
   JAP                        109               0                  1.4%
   NCP                        41                0                  0.5%

BSP                          228               0                  2.1%
SHS                            73               0                  0.6%
Independent                                  4                  9.4%

Note some of these numbers are too low since they are not normalized by the 2.5% NOTA vote.

[jaichind]

Lalu and Nitish celebrates at Lalu's home.

[jaichind]

NDTV came out with a election result chart based on candidates with criminal background.  It seems Grand Alliance and NDA nominated about the same number of candidates with criminal background.  Those with criminal background won at the same rate as the alliance they belong to won at.

Alliance        Candidates   Winners   Strike Rate
Grand Alliance    142              99            69.72
NDA                   139              37            26.62
Others               754                6              0.80

[jaichind]

As to why all the surveys and exit polls were way off  Axis APM, there are several theories. 

Famous political analyst Yorendra Yadav (who used to be part of famous 2015 AAP Delhi Assembly landslide against BJP until he was expelled) insisted the day before counting of votes that his reading of exit polls told him that Grand Alliance was headed to a comfortable victory with a seat count somewhat over 130 seats (which was the most pro-Grand Alliance exit poll other than  Axis APM.)  Yadav's argument was that exit polls in Bihar tend to under estimate support for the "OBC party", which is Grand Alliance in this case, by 2%-4%.  So if exit polls has Grand Alliance and NDA neck-to-neck then Grand Alliance should win by a conformable margin.     

I made a similar projection of a Grand Alliance victory of 140 seats but more based on the momentum these exit polls and survey had for Grand Alliance relative to similar surveys before the voting started.  My rule of thumb is that if you see such momentum in multiple surveys then most likely is is underestimated.   So if exit polls had the two sides neck-to-neck then it must be a solid victory for Grand Alliance.

It seems what took place was both these factors at the same time which pushed the Grand Alliance to an even large victory than the 140-150 seat variety. 

[jaichind]

NDTV will take a while to get over this reporting disaster.

Yep.  Their exit polls were off and the report on counting was a disaster.  I also think CNN-IBN did well by being the main English language outlet that first called the election for Grand Alliance and had in the end more accurate trends.  Somehow they must have used a different set of news stringers then that was used by NDTV.  What could have made CNN-IBN coverage perfect is if they actually went through with showing the shocking and eventually dead on exit poll of Axis APM instead of burying it.

[jaichind]

So who were all these new BJP supporters voting for last time?

Since BJP contested 102 seats in 2010 and contested 157 seats this time, BJP's greater vote share is partially explained by the BJP Upper Caste vote base now can get to vote for BJP in more seats.  BJP also gained in the Youth vote, the Dalit vote, and the EBC vote.  The latter two are more about the BJP is now THE anti-RJD party (Yadav and Muslim) so it will pick up the vote of the social base that is opposed to the RJD social base.

[jaichind]

It is also instructive to see how the each party fared against each other as that might give us an idea on how the Grand Alliance won.

INC vs BJP                  INC wins 19-9
INC vs BJP allies          INC wins  8-3

JD(U) vs BJP               JD(U) wins 29-25
JD(U)U vs BJP allies    JD(U) wins 42-2

RJD vs BJP                 RJD wins 54-19
RJD vs BJP allies         RJD wins 26-0

INC which tended to run Upper Caste candidates in an attempt to retake some of the Upper Caste vote against BJP seems successful as the JD(U) and RJD seems to be able to transfer their OBC vote to INC against the "Upper Caste" BJP.  Given how weak BJP allies (LJP RLSP HAM) performed, INC did not do as well in a relative sense against BJP allies since BJP allies tend to project an image of OBC/Dalit social base.

JD(U) ran as an ally of BJP in 2010 and because of the incumbent affect did not end up running against BJP as much.  Where it did, BJP did fairly well relative to the overall results.  This seems to be because in 2010 JD(U) was THE anti-RJD (Yadav) party and now that anti-RJD vote will go to BJP.  RJD and INC seems less effective at transferring their base to JD(U) these districts.  JD(U) destroyed the BJP allies since they (LJP HAM RLSP) have done business with RJD in the past so it is hard to project themselves as THE anti-RJD party and at the same time the BJP base did not transfer over completely over to them.

RJD did very well against BJP.  In 2010 the BJP got the anti-RJD vote anyway so its not going gain more this time as being THE anti-RJD party.  But the RJD was able to get some transfer of support from JD(U) and as a result soundly defeated BJP.  RJD ran a campaign of anti-BJP polarization to consolidate the anti-Upper Caste vote.  It seems to have worked.   In RJD versus BJP allies the social bases of the two sides seems to overlap and RJD won since the Grand Alliance coalition is just bigger than NDA.   

Overall this election is an election of negatives.  It became how effective the NDA candidate is at being THE anti-RJD party and how effective the Grand Alliance candidate is at either co-opting the BJP Upper Caste base OR being the anti-Upper Caste candidate by pulling in the Dalit and EBC vote.

[jaichind]

Once we accepted that the social bases of RJD JD(U) and INC did seems to meld well this election, from a pure vote share point of view NDA did not do that badly relative to they impressive performance of LS 2014. 

The key thing to realize is that in LS elections the vote for independents are a lot smaller than in Assembly elections.  The main reason is since the district sizes for an LS election district is much larger than in an Assembly election from a game theory point of view, it is a lot more likely for an independent candidate (often a rebel from one of the larger parties) to have a chance of winning ergo a lot more of them contest and drive up the vote share for independents.  The best way to deal with this is to normalize the vote share of election blocs to the non-independent vote. 

In LS 2014, NDA (BJP+LJP+RLSP) won 39.5% of the vote when independents won 4.3% of the vote.  This means NDA won 41.3% of the non-independent vote in LS 2014.  Likewise, UPA (RJD+INC+INC) and Third Front (JD(U)+CPI) won 30.2% and 17.2% of the vote respectively in LS 2014.  We now must take into account that in 2015 Assembly election NCP and CPI did not contest as part of Grand Alliance.  A good way to measure NCP and CPI natural support rate is to look at 2010 Assembly election results where NCP and CPI both ran by itself and won 1.8% and 1.7% of the vote respectively.  So the Grand Alliance parties in 2014 LS won (30.2%+17.2%-1.8%-1.7%) = 44% of the vote or 46% of the non-independent vote.

In 2015 Assembly election NDA (BJP+LJP+RLSP+HAM) won roughly 35.1% of the vote once we normalize for NOTA.  Independents won around 9.6% of the vote.  So NDA won around 38.8% of the non-independent vote.  Grand Alliance won around 43% of the vote which translates to around 47.6% of the non-independent vote.

So from 2014 LS to 2015 Assembly the NDA went down by 2.5% and Grand Alliance went up by 1.6% of the vote.  We do have HAM defecting from JD(U) to NDA which might mean around 1%-2% of the vote.  Once we take that into account the NDA lost around 3.5%-4.5% of the vote from the Modi peak.  While this is significant this is much higher than anything NDA has accomplished before SAP/JD(U) joined NDA back in the 1990s.  BJP has clearly established itself a a significant power in Bihar.  This is bad news for INC as the chances of the INC recovering its Upper Caste based is fairly low and unless there is another reshuffle of the political deck INC will continue to a second rate political party in Bihar as a junior ally of JD(U) and/or RJD.