Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

BJP is trying to break into the OBC and EBC vote base of the "grand alliance" by promising that the next BJP CM in Bihar will NOT be from a upper caste.  I guess BJP if figuring that it has the upper caste vote base locked up.  Of course INC is explicitly trying to go after the upper caste vote base.  We will see how this plays out.  My hunch is the BJP gamble will work an the upper caste at this stage is so anti-Lalu that they will still go with NDA.

Pretty classic BJP tactic. Modi, of course, is also OBC.

In theory Modi belongs to Teli caste where in Bihar he would count as EBC which was carved out of OBC.  In theory EBC vote should be the deciding factor in this election. EBCs are not politically active leaders so this large voting bloc could go either way.  Traditionally they vote with the landlord they work for but that clientelist relationship is breaking down in a lot of places.

Think you're simplifying this a bit. Depends where the EBC would live, of course. Plenty of places where they would vote for CPI at some point, for example.

Yes, my statement is only in the context of Bihar.  EBC is really a designation that only exists in Bihar anyway, outside Bihar Teli caste would just be OBC.

[jaichind]

In the first round of seats to go to polls there are 583 candidates for 49 seats.  Out of the 583 candidates  130 have serious criminal cases against them including related to murder.  Using rule of thumb that candidates facing serious criminal charges are twice as likely as those that do not, 18 out of the 49 winners should be one of these candidates facing these serious criminal cases.

[jaichind]

Zee news poll has NDA at 147 seats 53.8% of the vote and "Grand Alliance" at 64 seats with 40.2% of the vote.  6 seats will go to others and the rest are neck-to-neck.  Again the crosstabs are problematic at it has the NDA only losing the Muslim vote 35.9 vs 57.9 and only losing the Yadav vote only 43.7 vs 50.2.  If these crosstabes hold true then I am pretty sure that NDA will win close to 200 seats and not 147 plus some tossups.  The seat share does not jive with vote share in this poll. 

[jaichind]

Lokniti-CSDS poll has NDA ahead 42-38 in terms of vote share. 




It is neck-to-neck in rural seats but NDA clearly ahead in urban seats. 



Looking at the breakdown on "giving Nitish Kumar another chance" shows that it is the EBC and Mahadalit which will be decisive on who will win.  It also seems that Lalu Yadav is a major drag on the "Grand Alliance."

[jaichind]

New IndiaTV-C-Voter opinion poll survey has similar results as the previous survey.   NDA 119 seats with 43% of the vote, "Grand Alliance" (JD(U)-RJD-INC) 116 seats with 41% of the vote, Others 5 seats.  So still neck-to-neck.

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN & Axis poll has Grand Alliance ahead with 46% of the vote and 137 seats while NDA has 38% of the vote and 95 seats.





Grand alliance wil win the Muslim vote 72-10, Yadav vote 67-21 but lose the Upper Caste vote 14-73

The poll seems to indicate that BJP will win 82 seats with 29% of the vote, LJP 2 seats with 4%, HAM 8 seats with 3% of the vote, and RLSP 3 seats with 2% of the vote.  For the Grand Alliance the poll expect JD(U) to win 69 seats with 26% of the vote, RJD 48 seats with 15% of the vote and INC 20 seats with 5% of the vote.  In other words it expects BJP to do well against RJD but JD(U) will crush the BJP allies.  INC result is a surprise and could signal that despite everything the INC strategy of going after the Upper Caste vote is working in localized areas.

[jaichind]

A CNN-IBN average of all polls BEFORE the very positive poll for Grand Alliance just now yields NDA at 43% with 118 seats and Grand Alliance at 42% and 112 seats.

Usually in these elections one front pulls a head in the end and will lead to a stamped affect so the margin of victory will end up being larger than 1%.  It is just hard to tell now which front that is.

[jaichind]

On funny story about Lalu Yadav's sons who are contesting for the first time this election which the BJP is harping about.  It seems that the official age of Lalu's older son Tej Pratap as per the ECI is 25 while the official age of Lalu's younger son Tejaswi is 26.  RJD claims the records are wrong while BJP is crying fraud. 



Tej Pratap



Tejaswi Yadav

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) -- The incumbent JDU and its partners seen leading with 122 seats in a survey by India Today-Cicero before polling begins in the state on Oct. 12.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP seen trailing with 111 seats
Other parties est. to win 10 seats: India Today-Cicero survey

The vote share for this poll is Grand Alliance 41% NDA 39% and does represent a slight improvement for Grand Alliance from Sept.


 

[jaichind]

Happier times.  Earlier this year, Lalu Yadav's daughter was married to the grandnephew of SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav who himself is a SP MP.   PM Modi was also in attendance along with the new couple as well as Lalu, Lalu's wife who herself is a former Bihar CM, and Mulayam who is the leader of SP and former UP CM.

Now Lalu and Modi are fighting to the death in the Bihar elections.  Lalu also had a falling out with SP with his own son-in-law now campaigning against his own father-in-law on behalf of the SP led front.

[jaichind]

Times of India poll has NDA ahead in terms of vote share 42-38.  It did not project seat count.   It does have Nitish Kumar having a higher approval rate than Modi.

[jaichind]

ABP News-Nielsen survey has NDA at 128 seats and Grand Alliance at 122 seats with others at 3 seats.

[jaichind]

SHS who is running in 150 seats claim that in Maharashtra SHS has never indulged in any kind of anti-migrant (Bihari) movement or atrocities on migrants.  This is clearly a false statement given the track record of SHS in Maharashtra.

[jaichind]

Elections will be in 5 phases.  The phases are

Oct 12th   49 seats
Oct 16th   32 seats
Oct 28th   50 seats
Nov  1st    55 seats
Nov  5th    57 seats

One of the reasons for breaking elections up into phases so security forces can shift to the right areas to ensure that bandits and Maoist rebels does not disrupt the voting.

[jaichind]

Around 33% of phase II candidates face serious criminal charges as opposed to around 23% in Phase I, although that ratio goes up to around 70% for BJP, JD(U) and RJD candidates.  The rule of thumb is that candidates with criminal background have a 2 to 2.5 times higher chance to win than a non-criminal candidate.  One of the reasons why is parties that have a realistic chance of winning tend to nominate criminal background candidates as they often can deliver local muscle power that can be added to the local party based to deliver victory.

[jaichind]

AIMIM which had wanted to contest in 24 seats eventually scaled it back down to 6.  It also seems to have made a deal with Grand Alliance to back Grand Alliance in the rest of Bihar.  Its main goal is to make an impact in UP next year so it did not want to be seen being the reason that the anti-BJP Grand Alliance is defeated in Bihar.  This turn of events could help consolidate Muslim vote behind Grand Alliance.


New AIMIM ad

[jaichind]

JD(U) suspended minister Awadhesh Kushwaha after a video emerged with him taking a bribe for work on behalf of certain interests in a future JD(U) led government.  He will not be renominated by the JD(U)

Awadhesh Kushwaha


Video link
https://youtu.be/JEK7kPaMu9A?t=75

One thing that is funny about the video is the picture of Gandhi in the background of this minister's home.  It makes it look like that Gandhi is witnessing this bribe as well in addition to the hidden camera.

[jaichind]

57% turnout in phase I of Bihar elections.  In 2010 it was 51% turnout in the same areas and in 2014 LS election turnout was 55% in the same area.  So the turnout is more like 2014 LS election than 2010.  In theory that should be good for NDA although the high turnout could also just reflect the highly competitive nature of the election.

[jaichind]

Phase I voting areas



As noted before, turnout was at 57% and it seems to be concentrated in rural areas as well as women voters (women turnout was 4% higher than men turnout) as ECI tracks turnout by gender.  In theory high turnout should help NDA, but rural areas and women voters are where Grand Alliance are stronger so the trend so far seems to be a wash between the two sides.

[jaichind]

Phase II voting is tomorrow.  They will cover

[jaichind]

After phase I, both Grand Alliances and NDA claimed victory.  But it seems that internal sources from NDA shows that NDA is nervous based on feedback that phase I did not work in their favor, espcially from the BJP allies.  Right after phase I was over Modi has canceled several rallies as well as BJP pulling some billboards with Modi on it and replaced with billboard with various local BJP leaders.  The word is that fearing defeat the BJP wanted to try to separate Modi from the Bihar election. 

[jaichind]

It seems that the political chatter gives grand alliance an edge over NDA after first two rounds the bookies still has NDA winning by 7% and 50 seats over Grand Alliance.  Of course the bookies were wrong about Delhi ealier this year and lost a bundle.

[jaichind]

Third phase coming up in a week  In this round 68% RJD, 62% BJP and 56% JD(U) candidates face criminal charges.  



It seems that even within the NDA camp there is chatter that admits the first two phases did not go well.  The NDA was hoping that the OBC vote bank of JD(U) and RJD splinters due to internal rivalries but various statements by the RSS indicating that they back scrapping reservations for OBC and Dalits seems to have consolidated OBC vote behind Grand Alliance.  Also the NDA hope was that the Dalit vote breaks for NDA but it seems the rural Dalits of phase 1 and phase 2 broke for Grand Alliance.  Phase 5 is heavy with Muslims which NDA concedes will go for Grand Alliance since AIMIM does not seem to have much impact.  So it will be up the more urban Phase 3 and Phase 4 for the NDA to try to catch-up.  The NDA is hoping that at least urban Dalits would break for NDA which seems reasonable except now there is an incident in BJP ruled Harayana where two Dalit children were murdered when the Dalit house was set on fire from a upper caste men who had a conflict with this Dalit famliy which was related to Dalit-Upper Caste rivalries in that village.  This incident is getting national attention in the media. This could not have come at a worse time for NDA as social composition of their election alliance was a Upper Caste-Dalit combination.  Urban Dalits will hear about this news and might react in the way they vote.  

[jaichind]

http://m.timesofindia.com/elections/bihar-elections-2015/news/Bihar-polls-Grand-Alliance-displaces-NDA-in-satta-race-punters-give-Nitish-Lalu-127-129-seats-NDA-110/articleshow/49604867.cms

NDA recovered some ground after third phase. Before the first two phases the bookies had NDA at around 150 seats.   After the first two rounds thw bookies had NDA at around 90 seats.  Now the bookies has NDA at around 110 seats which means NDA is still behind but not by that much. 

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of 2014 election results on a booth by booth basis to formulate factors are for NDA and factors which are for Grand Alliance.