Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

Latest Reforma poll

PRI         32%
PAN        22%
PRD        14%
MORENA   8%
PVEM        7%

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-31/green-is-good-as-mexican-ruling-party-seeks-allies-to-keep-power

Bloomberg article about the key role of PVEM will play in keeping the PRI majority in the upcoming election.

[jaichind]

BGC-Excelsior poll.  Not sure how good of a pollster BGC-Excelsior is.

http://www.prensa-latina.cu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&idioma=1&id=3685341&Itemid=1

PRI               36
PAN              22
PRD              15
PVEM             8
Morena          7
MC                3
PANAL           3

[jaichind]

A poll in DF

http://www.kioscomayor.com/vernoticias.php?artid=65412&relacion=&tipo=principal1&cat=51



It seems to be

PRD-PT-PANAL     32%
PAN                     17%
PRI-PVEM             21%
Morena                18%

Election night will be interesting how things break down in DF.

[jaichind]

Mitofsky poll

http://www.revistapuntodevista.com.mx/2015/04/18/pri-encabeza-preferencias-electorales-con-33-mitofsky/62606/



Seems to be

PRI-PVEM                             39.8%
PAN                                      23.5%
PRD-PT                                 17.8%
Morena                                 11.2%

PANAL with 3.5% seems to be allied with different major parties in different places and races.   MC at 2.5% which puts them in danger of losing party status.

[jaichind]

Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.   

[jaichind]

Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.  

Michoacan left is Cardenista, not Lopezobradorista.

Yeah.  But Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas is also gone from the PRD.  You would figure that some of the Left vote would leave PRD to Morena if anything just out of revenge.  But at least in this poll the PRD vote share is holding firm.

[jaichind]

Why did the Greens ally themselves with the PRI? The PRI seems much too technocratic for them, and their social conservatism puts them closer to the PAN, at least if it is true that the Mexican Greens have an uncharacteristic streak of social conservatism.

I think after 2000.  In 2000 PVEM was with PAN but somehow they had a falling out with PAN after 2002 and after that they have been with PRI for the 2003 election and onward. 

[jaichind]

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/asi-la-preferencia-nacional.html

Financiero poll still has PRI-PVEM way ahead. 

PRI-PVEM        40
PAN                 24
PRD-PT            13
Modera            10
MC                    4
PANAL              3

[jaichind]

I don't get that at all. A fractured left and unpopular PRI should make this a better year for PAN. They might even lose in Nuevo León, which literally doesn't make sense.

I think the reason PRI is ahead despite all this is the same reason why LDP is always ahead in Japan.  They are supported "because there is no one else."  That is literally the largest reason why people in Japan say they vote LDP, "because there is no one else." 

[jaichind]

I have a question about the 8% rule: Will this rule allow for overhang seats like in Germany.  It is relevant this year in my view.  Say in a, not the most likely but distinctly possible situation where PAN support drops some more (especially in areas of PAN strength) while PRD-PT and Morena (splitting the PRD-PT vote in areas of traditional PRD strength) support goes up to where we get something like PRI-PVEM 40%, PAN 22%, PRD-PT 15%, Morena 13% MC 4% PANAL 3% in the vote.  I can see in this case the power of FPTP would potentially propel PRI-PVEM to win something like 250-260 out of the 300 FPTP seats due to the split of the anti-PRI-PVEM vote and lack of tactical voting.  But the 8% rule would dictate that PRI-PVEM would be restricted to 48% of the 500 seats or 240 seats which is less than the 260 seats that PRI-PVEM won already in the constituency seats.  What will happen then ?  Will they just

1) Hand all 200 PR seats to the various non-PRI-PVEM parties and call it day with PEI-PVEM having a 260 seat out of 500 seats majority.
or
2) Create more PR seats on the fly and hand them out so the PRI-PVEM will still only have 48% of the seats which mean would size of the legislature would be greater than 500.

I am not saying this is likely but for sure possible especially when in 2015 PRI-PVEM is not that strong in term of support but the anti-PRI-PVEM votes are split into 3 large blocs with the biggest one (PAN) having a very large gap between itself and PRI-PVEM.

But just to show you what I am talking about.  In 2012 it was

                   vote share    Constituency seats
PRI-PVEM      38.4%              176
PAN              27.2%                52
PRD-PT-MC    28.4%               72

If the gap between PRI-PVEM and the runner up grows from around 11% in 2012 to something like 18% in 2015 like in my scenario I can see PAN PRD and Morena only winning strongholds and nothing else in terms of  constituency seats.

[jaichind]

Big news today. EBRARD IS OUT.

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has ruled that Marcelo Ebrard was simultaneously trying to get PRD and MC nomination, which is banned by law. Hence, he cannot be a candidate this year. I am afraid, it may be the end of MC.

In other news, yesterday´s gobernatorial debates in Michoacan and Nuevo Leon. Reforma gives broadly high grades to 3 out of 4 major contestants in NL (including the Independent, the PANista and the MC guy) and trashes the performance of the PRIista Pavlovich.

This feels like a bum rap.  The process of candidate selection was over in PRD before the process selection began for MC.  So how can Ebrard be simultaneously trying to get PRD and MC nomination.  Of course it depends on what the rules define as simultaneously. 

It seems that MC does poll at 3%-4% so could survive but I guess tactical voting will erode this.  If this is the end of MC, I assume most of that support will flow to Morena in the next election since MC really got started by AMLO anyway.

[jaichind]

I looked over the candidate list for the legislative elections and found some interesting things, especially with respect to alliances.

I found that Morena is running in all 300 seats even though in most of them they have no chance anyway and will hurt PRD.  I guess their angle is to maximize vote share.  Same for MC and PANAL where getting past 3% is needed to survive.  I have no idea why MC or PANAL did not try to form an alliance with one of the major parties like PRD for MC and any of the 3 large parties for PANAL. Perhaps they tried and got rebuffed. 

The interesting part are the alliances, namely the PRI-PVEM alliance and the PRD-PT alliance. 

1) In 2012 PRI and PVEM formed alliances in 199 out of the 300 district seats.  This time it is 250 out of 300.  Looking at the 50 seats where PRI and PVEM failed to form an alliance is intersting as some of it makes sense and some are very illogical. 

a) There is no alliance in AGUASCALIENTES just like 2012.  But this makes no sense as PRI and PAN are evenly matched in AGUASCALIENTES with PRD far behind and getting PVEM into an alliance instead of splitting the vote would make sense.  It must be ego or PRI in AGUASCALIENTES must feel that PAN has declined since 2012.
b) There is no alliance in 11 out of 27 DF seats.  In 2012 PRI-PVEM formed alliances in all 27 seats even as they were crushed by PRD-PT-MC.  This year PRD-PT-MC are split into PRD-PT,  MC, and Morena so this is a great chance for PRI-PVEM to make gains.  But there is no room for error.  PAN in DF is almost as strong as PRI-PVEM and the PRD base in DF in 2012 was so huge that even if it split down the middle it is not clear that even an united PRI-PVEM could make gains.  Hard to understand this especially when in 2012 PRI and PVEM were capable of forming an alliance.
c) No PRI PVEM alliance in MORELOS.  There was such an alliance in 2012 even as that was not good enough to beat PRD-PT-MC.  So this is like DF with the difference that PAN is somewhat weaker here and the PRD lead over PRI-PVEM not that large.  So PRI might have taken the gamble that the split of PRD-PT-MC into PRD-PT, MC and Morena would be enough for it to win on its own without PVEM.  So this outcome has some logic behind it.
d) No PRI PVEM alliance in NAYARIT.  There was no such alliance in 2012 either and did not stop PRI from sweeping the state with large leads over PAN and PRD-PT-MC.  So this year will likely be a repeat so lack of alliance is logical.
e) No PRI PVEM alliance in OAXACA.  There was no PRI PVEM alliance in 2012 either which hurt the PRI-PVEM cause PVEM seems to be relatively strong.  PRD-PT-MC swept the state in 2012.  The lack of an PRI PVEM alliance could be part of the calculation that PRD-PT-MC has split PRD-PT, MC, and Morena.  Since the gap between PRI and the Left is not that great this could be a logical gamble.  I have no idea if the PRD split here is down the middle or is Morena a dud here.
f) No PRI PVEM alliance in TABASCO.  There was such an alliance in 2012 which did not stop PRD-PT-MC from sweeping the state.  PAN is very weak here so PRI PVEM not linking up might be a gamble by PRI that the split of the Left is enough for it to win on its own.  Of course here PRD-PT has an alliance and the PRD-PT-MC lead in 2012 is very significant and much bigger than OAXACA.  So in relative terms not having an alliance here makes less logical sense.   
g) No PRI PVEM alliance in TAMAULIPAS.  This is a battleground state between PAN and PRI with PAN having an upper hand in 2012 even as there was no PRI PVEM alliance in 2012.  The lack of an alliance here unless there is evidence that PAN is much weaker than in 2012.
h) No PRI PVEM alliance in TLAXCALA.  There was no alliance in 2012 either as PRI ended up somewhat weaker than PRD-PT-MC.   Here the PRD-PT-MC alliance of 2012 completely fell apart as PRD, PT, MC and Morena are all running separately.  So perhaps PRI is making a calculated gamble that the split of the Left means that PRI can win 8 way race (PAN, PRI, PANAL, MC, PT, PRD, PVEM, Morena).

So overall, other than AGUASCALIENTES  and TAMAULIPAS, the lack of PRI-PVEM alliances seem to be places of 2012 PRD-PT-MC strength where PRI seems to making the bet that the split of the Left makes such an alliance not necessary.
 
2) In 2012 PRD-PT-MC had alliances in all 300 seats.  As noted before, MC is going on its own.  As for PRD-PT, they seems to have alliances in 100 out of 300 seats.   It is interesting to see which states these 100 seats belong.

a)  PRD-PT alliance in BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.  Here PAN, PRI-PVEM, and PRD-PT seems to be equally matched so keeping the alliance here makes sense as there will be some possible ROI.
b)  PRD-PT alliance in DF.  This obviously make sense.  PRD was and still is very strong in DF even with the defection of MC and Morena.  So getting an alliance to try to keep as many of the PRD seats in DF from 2012 make sense.
c) PRD-PT alliance in 2 of the 4 seats in DURANGO.  Here PRI-PVEM has the edge with PAN running second. The 2 seats happens to be the 2 where PRD-PT-MC was relatively strong in 2012 and could have a shot in one of them.
d) PRD-PT alliance in GUERRERO.  Makes sense as this is an old PRD stronghold so trying to keep as many of the seats that PRD won in 2012 as possible would be logical especially with the disastrous situation of the Student kidnapping disaster under the PRD administration as well as the Morena split.
e) PRD-PT alliance in MICHOACAN.  This is a 3 way state between PRI-PVEM, PAN, and PRD-PT.  So keeping the alliance to try to retain some seats would make sense, especially when PAN will most likely gain ground this time.
f) PRD-PT alliance in MORELOS.  Old PRD stronghold so same logic applies.
g)PRD-PT alliance in NAYARIT.  Here PRI-PVEM dominate so not clear how an alliance would make a difference one way or another.
h) PRD-PT alliance in NUEVO LEON.  This is a PRI-PVEM vs PAN battleground state where PRD-PT-MC is weak.  So not clear what an alliance would accomplish here.
i) PRD-PT alliance in OAXACA.  A battleground state between PRD-PT-MC and PRI although I think PAN is gaining ground here.  Trying to take advantage of the PRI PVEM split here makes sense to retrain as many of the 2012 seats here as possible.
j) PRD-PT alliance in SAN LUIS POTOSI.  This is a PRI-PVEM vs PAN battleground state so not clear what an alliance would accomplish one way or another.
k) PRD-PT alliance in TABASCO.  A PRD stronghold where PRI is the main competitor.  Makes sense as keeping 2012 seats would be realistic goal by keeping the alliance.
l) PRD-PT alliance in VERACRUZ in 2 out of  21 seats.   Mostly a PRI-PVEM vs PAN battleground but having pockets of PRD strength. One of the 2 seats PRD-PT-MC managed to win in 2012.
m) PRD-PT alliance in ZACATECAS.  Not clear this does anything as this is dominated by PRI-PVEM so there is no chance of PRD-PT winning a seat anyway.

There is logic to the PRD-PT alliance patterns.  The goal is to maximize total vote share and win FPTP seats where possible.  So the rational thing to do is to ally in places where an alliance will yield seats and not have alliances in places where PRD-PT have no chance anyway so running separately might maximize total vote.  Under this logic, having alliances in NAYARIT, NUEVO LEON,  SAN LUIS POTOSI, and ZACATECAS does not make any sense but the others does make sense.   Also no PRD-PT alliances in MÉXICO  state does not make sense as they are areas of PRD-PT strength and running separately would potentially throw away those seats.   Same is true for QUINTANA ROO and TLAXCALA where no PRD-PT alliances there means throwing away seats to PRI.

[jaichind]

It seems that MC does poll at 3%-4% so could survive but I guess tactical voting will erode this.  If this is the end of MC, I assume most of that support will flow to Morena in the next election since MC really got started by AMLO anyway.

MC was not started by AMLO -  English wiki is wrong here. It is a personal vehicle of one Dante Delgado. AMLO always had to trade for that line: they were happy to adopt him, but at a cost. This time they traded with Ebrard.

Without Ebrard they will not get as many votes.

Ebrard's legal problem, according to the tribunal, was "legal sumultaneity". MC may have decided later - but the process was already going during the PRD decision. Whatever.

Ah. Thanks for clearing that up.

[jaichind]

Based on what I read online the state of the governor races are the following:

Baja California Sur (current PAN)   -> PAN hold
Campeche (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Colima (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Guerrero (Current PRD) -> leaning PRI
Michoacán (Current PRI) -> 3 way tie between PRI PAN PRD
Nuevo León (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Querétaro (Current PRI) -> neck and neck between PRI and PAN
San Luis Potosí (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Sonora (Current PAN) -> leaning PAN

[jaichind]

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/universitarios-votan-por-pan-los-de-menor-escolaridad-por-el-pri.html

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/personas-con-menor-escolaridad-prefieren-al-pri-pvem.html

Parametría has a poll which also has demographic breakdown of support among different parties.  They seem to have

PRI        34%
PAN       24%
PRD       13%
Morena  10%
PVEM      8%

What is interesting is how strong PRI is among those with no education and low income.   PRD and Morena which are supposed Leftist pro-poor parties are stronger relatively among those with higher income.    PRI has a nice scam going.  They run a disastrous education system which in turn produces a population with greater number those with lower education who in turn vote PRI at greater levels.

[jaichind]

Though PRI did create a disastrous education system, they were out of power for 12 years. And, in fact, they did try to do something about it when they came back. Not that they have any clue what to do. Not that anybody does, at this point.

Yes, but most of the voting population were educated when PRI was in charge.  Of course the PAN did nothing about the teacher's unions either and in fact took help from Gordillo in 2006 to win.  I wonder how PANAL will do this year.  The polls seem to indicate they will survive the 3% threshold which implies that power of the teacher's unions as a political force is still significant despite Gordillo being locked up.

One other interesting part about this poll is that PRI under-performs among the youth which is not a surprise.  What is a surprise is that this is made up by large youth support for PVEM.   So what one can say about the current surprising large PRI-PVEM lead in the polls seems to be:  There is apathy and disappointment toward all large parties. People vote PRI mostly out of habit, clientelist relationships, and "there is no one else."  Many people does not want to vote PRI instead votes PVEM without realizing that voting for PVEM is really a vote for PRI. 

[jaichind]

http://regeneracion.mx/tendencias/parametria-pri-32-pan-24-prd-13-morena-10/


 
Parametría poll which seem like all the others

PRI-PVEM              40
PAN                       24
PRD-PT                  15
Morena                  10
MC                         4
PANAL                    3
PES                        3

MC's support seems to be holding up.  PES which is a new centrist social democratic party seems to be at the threshold of making it.
            

[jaichind]

PVEM is spending massive amounts of money on electoral advertising and ignoring legal restrictions. Mexico City and other urban centers are plastered with the party's symbol – a toucan against a green background – with simple advertising straplines, such as ‘El Verde sí cumple' (‘Greens keep their
promises').  The PVEM is believed to have broadcast around 300,000 TV propaganda spots, most of which were illegal since they were transmitted before the official start of the campaign on 1 April. Among the party's marketing strategies have been the distribution of free cinema tickets (through a deal with film theater networks that also has been ruled illegal by IFE.  t has been distributing “discount cards” stamped with the Toucan symbol that give the beneficiaries medical vouchers, free opticians' check-ups and varifocal glasses. The PVEM has printed 4m calendars using non-biodegradable materials prohibited by law.

By early April, INE fines against the PVEM totaled almost $13M.  But this apparently reckless strategy may actually make sense.  Mexican political parties receive government subsidies linked to their
electoral performance.   Since 1997 the PVEM has received an average of $23M per year.  Assuming 70% of that goes in running costs, has a “profit” of about $7M a year.  If we believe the polls, this notoriety did not seem to stopped and in fact is likely to boost the PVEM's share of the national vote from 6.4% in 2012 to around 8% or even 10% this year if it takes advantage of the PRI alliance correctly.   This will boost the party's revenue contribution from the State by significantly more than the fines it must pay.

I am pretty sure that PVEM ally PRI tolerated or even encouraged this approach as PVEM is a vehicle for those that does not want to vote PRI to end up voting for PRI anyway via a vote for PVEM.   Nice scam PVEM has going.

[jaichind]

Consulta Mitofsky poll on Queretaro Governor race gives PRI slight edge.

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT      45
PAN                              39
PRD                               7
Morena                          6
MC                                3

[jaichind]

Consulta Mitofsky poll for lower house

http://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/World/20150512/2590753.html




PRI-PVEM         37.4
PAN                 23.6
PRD-PT            19.4
Morena            10.7
MC                    3.2
PANAL               3.2

PRI-PVEM went down a bunch while the Left parties went up.  In this poll Left parties seems pretty strong even if divided.

The same pollster also came out with seat projections



Which if we take the medium comes out to

PRI         200
PAN        116
PRD          88
PT            14
PVEM       41
MC            4
PANAL      13
Morena     24

This means that PRI-PVEM would be at 241 which is exactly the same as 2012.  PAN at 116 which is up 2 from 2012.  PANAL 13 up 3 from 2012.  And PRD+PT+MC+Morena at 130 which is down 5 from PRD+PT+MC in 2012.  If this is what takes place then the Left dodged a bullet.  The split of the Left parties should have spelled doom but their seats share, even if the parties are not united, will not have gone down so much.  I suspect such a projection is optimistic and that PRI-PVEM will make greater gains against the Left parities this time around.


BGC came out with a poll too

http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2015/05/11/1023481#imagen-1

Which has the change from March

PRI         33 (-3)
PAN        25 (+2)
PRD        14 (-1)
PVEM       9 (+1)
Morena    8 (+1)
MC          4 (+1)
PT           2 (-)
PANAL     3 (-)

Here it is the Left parties are not doing as well.

[jaichind]

El Diario of CHIHUAHUA came out with constituency polls for the first 4 of 9 districts.   PVEM alliance is helping PRI, PAN falling but mostly keeping vote base, while the Left is falling apart.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the first district it had

 

PRI-PVEM       37.2
PAN                 8.1
PRD                 2
PT                    1.3
MC                   1.6
PANAL              2.2
Morena             1.4

In 2012 it PRI and PVEM ran seperately

PRI                 39
PAN                20
PRD-PT-MC     26
PANAL             6
PVEM              8

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the second district it had



PRI-PVEM         37.5
PAN                   7
PRD                   2.7
Morena              1.6
PT                      1.3
MC                     1.3
PANAL                1.3

In 2012 when PRI and PVEM ran seperately it was

PRI                     40
PAN                    23
PRD-PT-MC         25
PANAL                 5
PVEM                  7

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the third district it had



PRI-PVEM            29.1
PAN                     24.6
PRD                       1.4
PT                         2.2
MC                        3.6
PANAL                  1.4
Morena                 1.9

In 2012 when PRI and PVEM ran separately it was

PAN                      32
PRI                       30
PRD-PT-MC           25
PANAL                   6
PVEM                    6

So if this poll bears out PRI-PVEM alliance will capture this seat which PAN won in 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the 4th district it was



PRI-PVEM             33.9
PAN                     11
PRD                       1.6
PT                          2.4
MC                         3.5
PANAL                   1.3
Morena                  2.4


In 2012 it was when PRI and PVEM did not have an alliance

PRI                       36
PAN                      23
PRD-PT-MC            27
PANAL                    7
PVEM                     8

[jaichind]

More constituency polls.  This time it is TAMAULIPAS 2nd district where the PRI and PVEM did not form an alliance.  Despite this it has PRI ahead of PAN who won this seat back in 2012. It seems lost some support and the Left hopelessly split.  



PRI       39.2
PAN      28.6
PRD       5.2
Morena  4.0
MC         2.0
PANAL    1.0
PT          0.8
PVEM     4.8

In 2012 PRI and PVEM did not have an alliance either it was

PAN             38
PRI              36
PRD-PT-MC   18
PANAL           4
PVEM            4

[jaichind]

Consulta Mitofsky poll on Sonora Governor race gives PRI slight edge.

PRI-PVEM-PANAL          46
PAN                             42
PRD                              9

which is a flip from 2009.  Although I read this poll as a tie as I am sure PRD will not end up with 9 but less than 5 as a result of tactical voting.   I suspect PRD vote will go to PAN as part of anti-PRI tactical voting.


For Baja California Sur it is PAN with an edge

PAN                           42
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       32
PRD-PT-MC                18

Which about the same as 2011.

[jaichind]

A big caution is necessary in taking the district poll results here seriously.

I know.  But I have to scrape what I can get.  I guess it is to much to demand that Mexico has its own Lord Ashcroft.