Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014

[jaichind]

As of 6pm turnout is about 35% which is down 6.8% from 2012.  If so we are looking at an turnout of around 51%-52% which is a bit lower than 2013 Upper House elections.  We are on record to have the lowest turnout ever.  I had expected something like 55%. I guess the impact of the snow and apathy is even greater than I thought.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll

LDP 275-306
KP     31-36

LDP-KP  306-341

DPJ     61-87
JCP     18-24
JIP      30-48

[jaichind]

NHK count so far it is


LDP  219
DPJ    35
JIP     23
KP      27
PFG     1
JCP    13
PLP     1
SDP    1

[jaichind]

If we take the medium of the exit poll for LDP-KP which is 323 and compare it to 325 from 2012 is is pretty much the same.  It is a bit better since the total number of seats went down from 480 to 475 of which 4 was from LDP-KP then to be purely flat would have 321 for LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

PFG did not do well enough in the PR vote for Ishihara to win.  He put himself lower on the PFG Tokyo list to try to push up the PFG vote.  It did not work.  Ishihara is defeated.

[jaichind]

Looking at results coming in so far when compared to my projections, LDP-KP is taking a lot of tossups which I had expected to be in favor of DPJ JIP but they have not won any, yet, if any seats that I projected to be won by DPJ and JIP.   I had expected LDP-KP to be within 266-319.  I had thought that it will be in at the bottom of that range.  It seems to be in the top of that range.  I am eager to see the PR vote to see if is and issue of poor vote transfer or is it an issue of my underestimating the LDP-KP vote.

[jaichind]

PFG not doing that well.  In Osaka 13th the PFG which won as a JRP candidate and won in a landslide in 2012 with over 50% of the vote seems to have lost in a landslide to LDP even though every other opposition party did not run to try to give this guy a chance.   Of course it kinds of make sense even though I projected him to win.  Sort of like Le Pen vs Chirac in 2002.

[jaichind]

Wow.  Former head of YP Wanatabe was defeated in his home district.  I expected him to win this one.  I guess those scandals finally caught up with him.

[jaichind]

DPJ head Kaieda lost in his Tokyo 1st district.  I expected him to pull this one through being he is the head of DPJ.  Maybe now he will resign which he seems to refuse to so far.  This district is a good test case of how opposition parties can transfer votes to each other.  There are well more than enough votes for LDP to be beaten.  That LDP won means that vote transfer between opposition parties is not working as well as I had expected which explains my projections being off.

[jaichind]

NHK count so far it is


LDP  220
DPJ    36
JIP     23
KP      27
PFG     1
JCP    13
PLP     1
SDP    1

[jaichind]

Asahi count

LDP  235
DPJ    40
JIP     22
KP      30
PFG     2
JCP    14
PLP     2
SDP    1
Ind     8 (3 pro DPJ, 3 pro LDP)

[jaichind]

Looks like Ozawa managed to win his home seat of  Iwate 4th .  This is one where I beat the media polls.  Most media polls had Ozawa behind.  I had him down for a win for sure.

[jaichind]

So far it seems JIP PR seat count is doing better than expected.  It seems to have come at the expense of DPJ.  I expected PR vote ratio between DPJ and JIP to be around 2 to 1.  It seems more like 4 to 3.  JIP  seems to manage to do well enough to be viable for the next election.

[jaichind]

JCP doing quite well, which is expected given that turnout is even lower than expected.

[jaichind]

Asahi count

LDP  235
DPJ    40
JIP     23
KP      30
PFG     2
JCP    14
PLP     2
SDP    1
Ind     8 (3 pro DPJ, 3 pro LDP)

[jaichind]

Asahi count

LDP  238
DPJ    40
JIP     24
KP      30
PFG     2
JCP    14
PLP     2
SDP    1
Ind     8 (3 pro DPJ, 3 pro LDP)

[jaichind]

Asahi count

LDP  241
DPJ    42
JIP     24
KP      30
PFG     2
JCP    14
PLP     2
SDP    1
Ind     8 (3 pro DPJ, 3 pro LDP)

I noticed at least 3 DPJ calls on NHK that Asahi did not call yet even as NHK numbers are lower than Asahi.  So DPJ numbers will grow from here.

[jaichind]

Places where it is still neck-to-neck and are not called yet are concentrated, just like I predicted, at Hokkaido, Tokyo, Osaka, and Kanagawa.  One thing I got wrong was Hokkaido where I expected an early DPJ victory.  Instead it is neck-to-neck.

[jaichind]

JCP won their first ever FPTP seat since the advent of the 1993 election system at Okinawa 1st.

LDP loses all 4 seats in Okinawa.

[jaichind]

Asahi count

LDP  244
DPJ    43
JIP     24
KP      30
PFG     2
JCP    16
PLP     2
SDP    1
Ind     8 (3 pro DPJ, 3 pro LDP)

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  247
DPJ    44
JIP     25
KP      28
PFG     2
JCP    13
PLP     2
SDP    1
Ind     7

[jaichind]

Turnout estimated to be at 52.3%

[jaichind]

Asahi count

LDP  251
DPJ    45
JIP     24
KP      30
PFG     2
JCP    17
PLP     2
SDP    1
Ind     9 (3 pro DPJ, 6 pro LDP)

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  257
DPJ    47
JIP     27
KP      28
PFG     2
JCP    14
PLP     2
SDP    1
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  259
DPJ    51
JIP     28
KP      29
PFG     2
JCP    15
PLP     2
SDP    1
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)