Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

Abe has to do it this way since he currently cannot change the Constitution.  That will have to wait until after the 2016 Upper House election where hopefully for him LDP-KP gets a massive majority like in 2013.  Then convince KP to come along which is mostly about convincing the married women's wing of the Soka Gakkai, convince the dovish wing of the LDP to come along and then that would put him at around 63% of the Upper House seats.  Then add a handful of PFG MPs and then peal off some hawkish supports of DPJ and JIP for a 2/3 majority.  There are a lot of ifs but he seems determined to try.  This set of bills is more to show that moving in that direction has no real international consequences so the doves of all types (in LDP and KP) will come along after 2016 elections.

[jaichind]

I think I pointed this out before.  But the biggest reason the Japanese voter tell posters on why they support LDP/Abe is : "Because there is no one else."

[jaichind]

The latest NHK levels of support are

LDP    35.8%   
DPJ       9.4%   
JIP        2.6%   
KP        3.6%   
JCP       4.4%

Even though LDP is way ahead one has to un-skew Japanese polls.  Japanese polls always overestimate LDP support and underestimate DPJ KP and JCP.  For NHK polls I found that the vote share of LDP+KP is what NHK shows plus 0% to 2% in the PR vote.  While one usually double the DPJ poll result to be its real vote shaer.  So if an election is called today LDP+KP would get around 40%-42% while DPJ would get around 19% although in an election campaign I am sure these numbers would be higher.  But it is clear that despite everything LDP-KP did lose ground since the December Lower House elections and DPJ gain ground.  If these levels of support continues into 2016 then Abe will find it hard to get the 2/3 majority he is looking for.

[jaichind]

How much longer do we give Abe? He's dipped below 40%, and Japanese PMs don't usually recover once they sink that low.

Well, that is one poll.  Most other polls are mostly in the 40s.  On the other hand these polls were from early June before the security bills became part of the public discussion.  I do expect these polls to also fall, perhaps to below 40% so we will have to see what other polls show.  On the other hand once Abe rams these laws through and memories of public opposition fade from the debate Abe's approval rating will recover but perhaps not to the level where LDP-KP can win in a landslide in 2016.  If so LDP-KP in 2016 will gain a few seats versus the 2010 election but not enough to give him the 2/3 majority he needs.  Especially if changing the Constitution might become a topic of the 2016 elections with all things equal will work against LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

I think the question isn't about LDP losing, but about LDP returning to its tendency to ditch leaders very often.

LDP ditches leaders because 1) their poll numbers are so bad that they will get in the way of LDP winning and 2) LDP is really a confederation of various factions so the various faction leaders want their chance to be at the top.  Abe has neutralized both problems for now.  Even in the low 40s or even high 30s in terms of approval rating Abe can still claim that it is good enough for a majority given how badly split the opposition is.  Also Abe has weakened the faction leaders so much that none of them are much of a threat to him. In fact the only real influential faction leader, Nobutaka Machimura, leader of the Machimura faction, the faction that Abe is from, died just recently removing the last LDP factional check on Abe.

[jaichind]

Latest Nikkei polls (which tends to be more pro-Abe/LDP) has Abe Cabinet Approval at 47/40 and support for new securities bills are 25/57. 

[jaichind]

Sankei poll.  Shinzo Abe’s Cabinet  approval is now 46 which is the lowest for Sankei since Abe came to power in Dec 2012.  Security related legislation approval are 59/32.

[jaichind]

The magazine Shūkan Gendai  (週刊現代) came out with a bombshell.   It claims that a couple of weeks ago, Abe meet with a bunch of senior members of the media at a high end Chinese restaurant (赤阪飯店) (ironically).  After Abe got drunk he admitted that the purpose of these security bills is to prepare the way for a war between Japan and PRC.   He also bashed Obama as weak and ineffective in dealing with PRC and not being able to get moving on TPP.

While I have no doubt this is how Abe feels inside, I think even a drunk Abe is not foolish enough to say something like this openly.  This feels some sort of plant by the media to wreck Abe's plans for the security bills.   This is relevant because up until now the media has been very supportive of Abe.  But recently events seems to have turned the media against Abe.

[jaichind]

PSA: The NHK poll are NOT polls of voting intention. They are polls of party approval ratings, in other words poll of which party they think is handling themselves the best in parliament.

I get my data from

http://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/yoron/political/index.html

Where it says it gives the numbers by party under "政党支持率."  Of course it could mean something different in the Japanese context but in Chinese 政党支持率 means party support not really party approval.  While NHK is not the best pollster it does have a historical time series which is great.  If you look at the time series one will notice that the number each party gets under 政党支持率 rises arcross the board around election season which implies it is party support and not party approval.   I could be wrong about that.

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll has approval at 42/43 although Mainichi polls historically has been less friendly to LDP than normal.



Approval of security bills are 29/58.

Abe has extended the current diet by 3 months to avoid passing the security bills while are so unpopular.  He has the votes to pass it but is hoping that extra time will give him a chance to increase popular opinion on the bills before he passes it.

[jaichind]

Latest polls.  More downward slide for Abe.

Asahi
Approval 39/42. 
Passage of security bills 26/56

NHK
Approval 41/43
LDP party support at 34.7
KP party support at 4.2

My rule of thumb is that LDP+KP vote share in an election should be the sum of its polling numbers plus 1%-3%.  So in an election LDP+KP should get around 41%.  If this is replicated in the Upper House elections in 2016 it should be enough for LDP+KP to win a majority but not enough for 2/3 majority that it needs.

[jaichind]

If LDP+KP comes in at 41% in PR in 2016 Upper House elections and a similar swing takes place in the district seats, a back of the envelope calculation shows that LDP+KP will come in at 64 out of 121 seats.  Adding 76 LD+KP seats from 2010 gives 140 out of 242 seats for LDP+KP, putting it 22 seats short of 2/3 majority.  Of course we have to add to LDP+KP 6 PFG members in the Upper House that will for sure vote for Constitutional change.  That leaves it 16 short.  Then it comes down to how much of the JIP will vote for this.  If Hashimoto retires end of 2015 as claimed then it is unlikely more than a couple of JIP MP of the Upper House will vote for Constitutional change.  Then we have 7 MPs of The Assembly to Energize Japan which is a post-YP outfit.  A small majority if not all of this bloc could be bought to vote for change but that still leaves Abe a handful short even in a best case scenario.  Only way out of this is somehow to buy the JIP to join Abe wholesale but I do not believe Abe has the political capital to do this.

So we can say for sure that if we go by current level of LDP-KP support then Abe will not get the 2/3 majority he needs to change the Constitution. 

[jaichind]

Looks like LDP-KP will try to ram the security bills through the Lower House on Thursday over the objections of DPJ JCP and JIP.  Not getting JIP support is critical as this might polarize JIP against the planned Constitution change Abe is sure to try if he does well in the 2016 Upper House elections.   Anyway doing this is while the bills are so unpopular is sure to drag down the support of LDP-KP, at least in the short run.

[jaichind]

The bills got through committee. I note, with no small amount of dismay, that Kōmeitō has finally gone from being a party with some semblance of positions and ideals of its own to being a lockstep glorified SGI vote bank for Jimintō through and through.

KP is really controlled by Soka Gakkai.  Soka Gakkai is really controlled by the Soka Gakkai Married Women's division.  Abe convinced the Soka Gakkai Married Women's division to go along with this plus, I am sure, continued concessions from LDP to KP in local elections.  Remember, KP is dovish but at the core does not care about national politics.  KP is mostly about local prefecture level politics.  As long as LDP does things in a way to help KP in local politics (like making sure that no national elections take place at the same time as the unified local elections as to lower turnout which in turn helps KP) then KP can be bought off, at a price of course.  

Remember, the original KP started as an extreme anti-LDP party and was very active in trying out various anti-LDP alliances in the 1960s to the early 1990s.  It actually was allied with JCP for a while to oppose LDP and then after that broke down it went into various alliance with various centrist anti-LDP parities.  The rise of Ozawa as the leader of the anti-LDP bloc and how he treated KP turned off KP so much that it decided that it rather be anti-Ozawa than anti-LDP.  So KP can change on this why cannot KP bend a bit on this topic, for a price of course.

Of course if Abe goes for Constitution change next year after 2016 Upper House elections then the price the KP will charge will go higher.  Perhaps to a level that LDP will not let Abe pay.

[jaichind]

Wouldn't the JIP be inclined to support the bill?

JIP, like DPJ and LDP, have hawkish and dovish wings.  The hawkish wing is large enough so that perhaps JIP and Abe could have reached a deal.  But with the hawkish Hashimoto claiming he is going to retire JIP is now the leadership of Yorihisa Matsuno who has a DPJ background and seems to be neutral on the hawk-dove axis.  Yorihisa Matsuno for now take taken the route of tactical alliance with DPJ so while JIP, to placate its hawkish wing, offered to with with Abe on revised watered down version of the bills.  Abe turned down JIP giving Yorihisa Matsuno the excuse to then come out to oppose Abe and join the opposition walk out of the Diet when these bills were passed.

[jaichind]

Abe seems to be willing to take a hit in terms of popular support to get these bills passed.  The problem for him is that the trend is in Japan since 2006 is that once a PM's support falls below some threshold there is no return.  The anger at the grassroots seems to be real.  There was a 60000 person protest rally the day before. and all opposition parities walked out the Diet.  In Japan where etiquette is pretty important, these are significant steps and speaks to the depth of anger at these moves, especially when the guy on the street must be saying "Why is Abe doing this when he was elected to fixed the economy and I do not see the economy fixed yet."

[jaichind]

Since it seems that Abe is going all out to push his security agenda despite political damage to himself and LDP, then we cannot rule out him doing the same after the 2016 Upper House elections to try to cobble together a 2/3 majority in Upper House for Constitutional change.    If so it makes sense to do a bottom up analysis on where we are likely to be after the 2016 Upper House elections  in terms of numbers.

First we should account for the 121 Upper House members elected in 2013 and where they stand assuming Abe first buys off KP

Out of 121 elected in 2013 we have

Pro-Constitution change (80)
LDP    65
KP      11
PFG     4

Anti-Constitution change (29)
DPJ     17
JCP       8
SDP      1
PLP       1
OSMP    1
NRP       1

Neutral (12)
JIP        6
AEJ       4  
YP-Ind   2


Lets dig into the 12 Neutrals to see where they might stand

Of the 6 JIP MPs elected in 2013.  They are

東徹 - LDP background and based in Osaka.  Most likely loyal to Hashimoto so he will most likely back Constitutional change.
清水貴之 - Seems to lean right and have contacts with PFG.  Most likely will back Constitutional change.
川田龍平 - YP background and based in Tokyo.  Tend to lean left.  Mother was a noted pro-JCP politician.  Most likely to oppose Constitutional change.
儀間光男 - Local Okinawa political party background.  Just that alone, given the relationship between Abe and Okinawa we can say he is most likely  to oppose Constitutional change.
藤巻健史 - Tokyo based and very right wing in terms of economics.  Not clear where he stands on Dove Hawk axis but given his aversion to DPJ SDP JCP in terms of economic political will mostly stand with LDP and be for Constitutional change.
室井邦彦 - Long time politician and has been in LDP and DPJ before joining JIP.   Does seem to be very active in promoting political rights of Koreans in Japan.  For that reason he is most likely repelled by FPG and most likely will be against Constitutional change.

Of the 4 AEJ MPs elected in 2013 (mostly as YP)  They are

行田邦子 - Has DPJ background and was in Green Wind for a while before joining YP.  Active in women's rights organizations.  Most likely to be against Constitutional change.
アントニオ猪木 - A famous sumo wrestler before entering politics as very colorful politican.  Was in FPG for a while before joining AEJ.   He was the lone dove in FPG and was close to the DPRK regime.   He only joined FPG because of his relationship with Ishihara Senior.  Once Ishihara retired he also split from FPG when his politics does not match FPG.  Most likely to be against Constitutional change.
井上義行 - In theory was not in LDP but back during Abe I did work with Abe as one of the ministry secretaries before entering politics.  Given this personal relationship of the past is likely to be   for Constitutional change.
山口和之 - Has a DPJ background before joining YP.  His position on the Dove Hawk axis is not clear.    But all things equal will be for Constitutional change if there seems to be momentum behind it since he has a track record of being an opportunist.

The two YP independents

渡辺美知太郎 - Nephew of YP founder  Watanabe.  Given  Watanabe's relationship with Abe he will be for Constitutional change.
薬師寺道代 - Has a medical background.  Does seem to be more Hawkish on the Dove Hawk axis so she will be for Constitutional change.

So it seems the neutrals will break 7-5 for Constitutional Change.  

So rough guess on where the votes will go for the 121 MPs elected in 2013 is

87 for Constitutional change
34 against Constitutional change  

Now lets take a look at the likely outcome of the 2016 Upper House elections.

[jaichind]

Of course to estimate the chances of Constitution change which requires 2/3 majority we also have to estimate what the hawk/dove breakdown from the 2016 Upper House elections.  I thing a good now-cast estimate which would assume that the LDP+KP take a 5% swing against them since 2014 which is what current polls  plus a bit of a recovery would imply.

1) LDP+KP will get around 42% of the vote on the PR slate due to the dent they took recently.  That would translate into around 21 out of 48 PR seats.  PFG optimistically could end up with 1 seat (assuming they keep their 2014 voting base.)  AEJ most likely will not win enough votes to get a PR seat and even if it does it is not clear that the AEJ MP will be a Hawk.  So on the PR slate the hawks would get 22 out of 48 seats.
2) FPTP wise we can go district by district to do a now-cast how the results would go as far as what the LDP+KP could end up capturing.  We can assume the PFG cannot win a FPTP seat unless it is backed by LDP which is the same as a LDP seat.  Using a more optimistic for LDP/KP analysis of the FPTP results we get

北海道 - LDP will win 1 of 2
青森県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
岩手県 - LDP will win 0 of 1
宮城県 - LDP will win 1 of 2
秋田県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
山形県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
福島県 - tossup on if LDP wins 1 or 1 -> assign 0.5 to LDP
茨城県 - LDP will win 1 of 2. LDP could win both with 2 candidates but will not work if they try
栃木県 - LDP will win 1 of 1.  Non-LDP might have a chance if DPJ JIP and AEJ join forces.  Unlikely
群馬県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
埼玉県 - LDP/KP will win 2 of 3
千葉県 - tossup on if LDP/KP 1 or 2 of 3 -> assign 1.5 to LDP
神奈川県 - LDP/KP win 2 of 4
東京都 - LDP/KP win 2 of 5.  In theory LDP/KP could win 3 but DPJ MP 蓮舫 will win a lot of LDP votes
山梨県 -  tossup on if LDP wins 1 or 1 -> assign 0.5 to LDP
新潟県 - LDP will win 1 of 2
富山県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
石川県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
福井県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
長野県 - LDP will win 1 of 2
岐阜県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
静岡県 - LDP will win 1 of 2
愛知県 - LDP will win 1 of 3
三重県 - LDP will win 0 of 1
滋賀県 - LDP will win 0 of 1.  Popular DPJ incumbent is actually married to a LDP Upper House MP
京都府 - LDP will win 1 of 2
大阪府 - LDP/KP will in 2 of 4
兵庫県 - LDP will win 1 of 2
奈良県 - tossup on if LDP wins 1 or 1 -> assign 0.5 to LDP.  Popular DPJ incumbent but trending LDP
和歌山県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
鳥取県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
岡山県 - LDP will win 1 of 1.  Might be tossup if popular but elderly DPJ incumbent runs.  Unlikely
広島県 - LDP will win 1 of 2. LDP could win both with 2 candidates but will not work if they try
山口県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
徳島県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
香川県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
香川県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
愛媛県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
高知県 - LDP will win 1 of 1.  In theory DPJ incumbent has chance but JCP will split anti-LDP vote
福岡県- LDP will win 1 of 2. LDP could win both with 2 candidates but will not work if they try
佐賀県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
長崎県- LDP will win 1 of 1
熊本県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
大分県 - tossup on if LDP wins 1 or 1 -> assign 0.5 to LDP
宮崎県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
鹿児島県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
沖縄県 - LDP will win 0 of 1

Which sums up to 45 to 46 seats for LDP+KP in FPTP out of 73 seats.  Add to that 22 PR seats for LDP+KP and PGP.  We have the hawks winning 67 to 68 seats out of 121.

This projection seems reasonable.  In 2004 LDP+KP won 45.5% of the PR vote and won 70 seats overall.  If they drop to 42% but with an more fractured opposition winning around 67 to 68 seats seems reasonable and most likely too optimistic.  

If we add then on top of 67 to 68 the 87 hawk seats from the MP elected in 2013 it gets us 154 to 155 seats for Hawks overall versus 162 needed for 2/3 majority.

So Abe need to peal off 7 to 8 MPs elected in 2016.  AEJ might win 1 seat in FPTP not it is not clear that MP will be a Hawk.   Other than that it is really do a deal with JIP or somehow peal off a large number of JIP MP especially when in such a scenario JIP most likely won around 11-12 seats so we are  talking about pealing off a majority of the JIP 2016 elected MP contingent.  Both are unlikely.

So a bottom up analysis shows with current polling and some slight recovery for Abe, 2016 Upper House elections will not deliver him a 2/3 majority unless he buys off JIP which seems very unlikely.  LDP does not have enough political capital to buy off both KP and JIP.

[jaichind]

Jiji poll. 
Abe Cabinet approval 40.1/39.5
Government explanation of security bills is sufficient 12.8/73.7
Bills are Constitutional 19.8/53.8

[jaichind]

In the first poll taken completely after the security bills passed the lower house, Kyodo news poll (which historically has a anti-LDP bias) has

Abe cabinet approval   37.7/51.6
Support the way security bill was passed 21.4/73.3
Support security bill 24.6/68.4

LDP support 31.9 (-5.5 from June)
DPJ support 11.2 (+1.2 from June)

[jaichind]

Lastest Mainichi poll after security bill passes lower house

Abe Cabinet approval  35/51
For  security bills 27/62

[jaichind]

アントニオ猪木 - A famous sumo wrestler before entering politics as very colorful politican.  Was in FPG for a while before joining AEJ.   He was the lone dove in FPG and was close to the DPRK regime.   He only joined FPG because of his relationship with Ishihara Senior.  Once Ishihara retired he also split from FPG when his politics does not match FPG.  Most likely to be against Constitutional change.

Antonio Inoki is not a sumo wrestler! He's one of the most famous professional wrestlers ever (invented the Enziguri, wrestled for 4 decades, wrestled almost every wrestler in existance, basically invented MMA, once fought Mohammed Ali, etc.). Kind of like Japan's Hulk Hogan equivalent.

If you saw a picture of him, you'd know he was never a sumo wrestler (far too skinny).

Yes yes.  My fault.  You are right of course.  I actually knew this but because I was writing about Japanese politics a Freudian slip caused me to write Sumo.  Sorry.  Anyway it seems that he got involved in politics back in the 1990s and had formed his own party called "Sports and Peace Party." He was elected to the Upper House  back then.  Then various scandals drove him out of politics and he came back in 2013 as part of JRP followed by PFG and now AEJ.  Even back in 2013 he did not really fit into JRP when JRP was pretty hawkish toward DPRK and he was and still is very close to the DPRK regime.

[jaichind]

LDP endorsed an Upper House Redistricting bill proposed by JIP PFG and AEJ.  The bill would narrow the maximum vote value gap between the most and least populated constituencies to 2.97 times from 4.77 times in the previous upper house election in July 2013, which the Supreme Court ruled last year was "in a state of unconstitutionality."  DPJ has a more radical bill but it seems to have no chance as LDP is going with the JIP-PFG-AEJ bill.  KP is also opposed to this bill and supports the DPJ version of the bill.  What this bill will do is

Merge 鳥取県 and 島根県 into one district.  Net loss of 1 LDP seat relative to my expected 2015 results
Merge 徳島県 and 高知県 into one district.  Net loss of 1 LDP seat relative to my expected 2015 results
Increase 北海道 from 2 to 3.  Net gain of 1 anti-LDP relative to my expected 2015 results
Increase 東京都 from 5 to 6.  Net gain of 1 LDP relative to my expected 2015 results
Increase 愛知県 from 3 to 4.  Net gain of 1 LDP relative to my expected 2015 results
Increase 兵庫県 from 2 to 3.  Toss up on net gain of 1 LDP relative to my expected 2015 results
Increase 福岡県 from 2 to 3.  Net gain of 1 LDP relative to my expected 2015 results
Decrease 宮城県 from 2 to 1.  Net loss of 1 anti-LDP seat relative to my expected 2015 results.
Decrease 新潟県 from 2 to 1. Toss up on if LDP or anti-LDP lose seat relative to my expected 20 results
Decrease 長野県 from 2 to 1. Net loss of 1 LDP relative to my expected 2015 results.

So it seems this plan will be a wash for 2015 FPTP seat distribution as far as the hawk vs anti-hawk balance.  
 

[jaichind]

A few days ago, Abe appeared on TV to try to explain the security bills being passed in an attempt to increase public support for it.   What is funny the childish props he used in his explanation.

  

The idea is that the security bill allows Japanese forces to help allies like the USA just like Japanese fireman now could help put out fires with American fireman in putting out a fire in an American house.

This is the video of Abe

https://youtu.be/P4UxxpOz07E?t=427

[jaichind]

Also, there is a bus with flags of UK, Germany, France and Canada (the G7 minus Italy?) for some reason.

The idea is that when USA's house is on fire, USA allies comes in and help but not Japan.  That is why security bill is necessary.