India 2014 - Results

[jaichind]

Looks like BJP doing well in Upper Assam

[jaichind]

We are looking at a majority for NDA.  That is pretty much a lock now.

[jaichind]

INC is looking at going below 100.  I think Rahul Gandhi's future would be quite cloudy at this stage.

[jaichind]

NDTV projects NDA at 296 at current trends.

[jaichind]

Is there anywhere to see the specific vote counts in Amethi?

Not that I am aware of.

[jaichind]

AAP doing well in Punjab.  AIADMK sweeping TN.

[jaichind]

TMC sweeping WB.

[jaichind]

BJD not doing that well in Orissa.

[jaichind]

Based on current trends NDTV projects 290 for NDA.

[jaichind]

DMK has zero seats in TN.  Had they had a tie-up with INC at least DMK-INC could have pulled off some high single digit seats together.  As it is both are headed toward zero.

[jaichind]

INC will overcome this.  That NDA has a clear majority with BJP itself close to majority means that Modi would have no excuses.  As problems takes place the Modi magic would dissipate and the INC would gain.   

[jaichind]

Wow, INC has zero in Assam.  This is a shock.  I guess AUDF votes did not go to INC AND INC lost a bunch of votes to BJP AND AGP votes all went to BJP.

[jaichind]

So, what did Congress do to deserve this? I thought the whole Singh era was pretty non-eventful.

A bunch of scams took place and GDP growth for India slowed since 2009 as well as high inflation.  It will not be easy for Modi to change this.  We will see.

[jaichind]

BJP looks like it will just miss getting a majority on its own.  I think NDA is looking at being around 310 which is about what NDA got back in 1999.

[jaichind]

Biggest batches of seats without trends are in Orissa, Jhkarhand, Bihar and UP.  In other words, tribal areas.

[jaichind]

BJP wins a seat in Kerela.  A breakthrough.  Although back in 2004 NDA did win a seat in Kerela as well.

[jaichind]

INC actually doing well in Orissa.  Mostly has to do with BJP taking away votes from BJD and letting INC in.  On the other hand AAP took away INC votes and allowed SAD-BJP to do well in Punjab.

[jaichind]

Looking at Bihar, UP, and Assam results it seems that the hope of UPA Muslim consolidate did not take place.

[jaichind]

Indian markets up 4%.  This is on top of a surge last month on expected victory of NDA.  

[jaichind]

LJP's gamble worked.  LJP won 3 seats in Bihar.

[jaichind]

Based on trends, BJP will end up with 265 to 270 seats.  If somehow it wins over 272 then it will be the first single party majority in Indian elections since 1984.

[jaichind]

Based on trends, BJP will end up with 265 to 270 seats.  If somehow it wins over 272 then it will be the first single party majority in Indian elections since 1984.

If BJP get a majority, would they rule alone or keep NDA?

Pretty sure they will keep NDA since BJP does not have majority in upper house.

[jaichind]

I am off to bed.  The results are pretty clear now.  Will wake up early tomorrow to look at final results and head off to work.

[jaichind]

With 77% of the vote counted, it is NDA 333 UPA 59 with BJP at 279 and INC at 45.

From a vote share point of view so far it is

NDA  39.2%
BJP   33.2%

UPA  23.6%
INC   20.6%

While this is the worst showing for UPA in its history, lets remember that NDA got 24.3% in 2009 and managed to bounce back.  Also 39.2% is high but no higher than what NDA got in 1999 when they go 40.9%. 

[jaichind]

NDTV has a different vote share count.  It has NDA at 40.7%, about same as 1999 for NDA.  It has UPA at 26.2% somewhat higher than NDA in 2009.  From a vote share point of view the worst year for UPA was 1996 when it got 29.8%.  This is about 3.6% worse.  The NDA-UPA gap explains the victory of NDA in terms of seats.