2014 state legislature (general) elections

[jaichind]

Prediction for NY state senate.  The Independent Democratic Caucus has agreed to end its leadership coalition with minority Republicans in the state Senate back in the summer of 2014.  But this was take affect after the elections.  So all the Democrats have to do to keep control is to keep all its seats, including those in the Independent Democratic Caucus. 

My prediction is that they will fail and the GOP will retake control of the NY state senate 32-31.

If this were take place then it will deal a blow to Mayor Bill de Blasio of NYC who had hoped a Democratic majority in the NY State Senate would advance his agenda in his complex battle with Cuomo.  The real estate board has close ties to Cuomo has declined to help his own party win control of the Senate mainly because of conflict between real estate board and de Blasio.

[jaichind]

This guy on Monkey Cage

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/31/republicans-forecast-to-win-5-state-senates-and-9-state-houses/

is predicting a large number of GOP victories at the state legislative level.

Data being here

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/files/2014/10/klarner_chamber_forecasts.pdf

According to this, the closest races will be NY State Senate (makes sense as that will be close),  Nevada State House, and Oregon State House.

[jaichind]

I think GOP retake NY state senate 32-31.  This could change as more votes comes in.

[jaichind]

My prediction is that they will fail and the GOP will retake control of the NY state senate 32-31.

At this point it is exactly GOP 32-31 so I nailed this one.  One of the Dem winners most likely will caucus with GOP giving GOP de facto 33-30 control. 

[jaichind]

In NY State Senate which went 32-31 for the GOP it seems the 5 member Independent Democratic Conference which all got re-elected and led by Klein has decided to continue their alliance with the GOP.  In addition to that Democrat Felder of Brooklyn will also continue to Caucus with the GOP.  So now it will be 38-25 majority for GOP/IDC.  The GOP in theory does not need this alliance but they are looking forward to 2016 where they might lose their majority again and will need the IDC to continue their control.    For for all 6 Democrats they completely scammed their party.  They promised De Blasio, WFP, and the Liberal wing of the NY State Democrats to return to the Dem fold if the Democrats retain (on paper) control of the NY State Senate.  Cuomo who supported the IDC alliance with GOP also got the WFP line in return for his promise to get the IDC to come back into the Dem fold.  All 6 Democrats as a result did not face any real primary nor general election challenge funded/supported by De Blasio, WFP, and the Liberal win of the Democrats.  They also got no or very token opposition from the GOP and pretty much sleepwalked to reelection.  Cuomo who was suppose to campaign hard to get the Dems the NY State Senate majority pretty much did nothing and sat out the election.  After the election when it turns out the GOP win a majority the IDC and Felder all went back to GOP who welcome them with open arms.  To be fair, in 2016 it will be a different affair as all 6 will face major challenges from the Liberal win of the Democrats although they are more likely to get direct support from GOP.  2016 NY State Senate election will be fun.