Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

Top Lega (Northern League) official Giancarlo Giorgetti speaking from party HQ:
"These are historic results for the Lega. We're picking up votes from North to South. We had 4 percent in 2013, now projections say 16 to 17 percent, perhaps more. We'll discuss things with our allies but this is a historic moment for the Lega."


Five Star lawmaker Alessandro Di Battista takes the stage in a crowded and increasingly cheerful headquarters:
"A triumph, an apotheosis" for Five Star, he says, which shows that "everybody will have to come and talk to us from now on."

[jaichind]

Italian Senate Elections: LA7 Third Projection 

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.3%
Democratic Party   18.9%
League   17.5%
Forza Italia   14.5%
Brothers of Italy   4.1%
Free and Equal   3.3%
+Europe Bonino   2.5%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.2%
Together Italy Europe   0.6%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%

[jaichind]

Italian Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Projection

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.1%
Democratic Party   19.0%
League   17.5%
Forza Italia   14.1%
Brothers of Italy   4.1%
Free and Equal   3.5%
+Europe Bonino   2.7%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.1%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%
Together Italy Europe   0.6

[jaichind]

Italian Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Projection

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.1%
Democratic Party   19.0%
League   17.5%
Forza Italia   14.1%
Brothers of Italy   4.1%
Free and Equal   3.5%
+Europe Bonino   2.7%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.1%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%
Together Italy Europe   0.6

That's enough for M5S-PD and might not be enough for M5S-Lega, which would be amazing.

Well, I was thinking of M5S-LN-FDI

[jaichind]

RAI TV lower house poll updates now:

Center-Right 36%
Five Star 32.5%
Center-Left 22.9%

[jaichind]

VoteWatch has looked at which parties, M5S has voted the most with in the European Parliament. This is also an imperfect measure, but, like the chart of voter self-placement, it shows that M5S most closely resembles a Podemos/Syriza-style party. They are more critical of non-western immigration (although the exact degree is hard to gauge) and less ideologically (and more pure protestically) left-wing.

I guess the argument for M5S to tie-up with LN is not about ideological agreement but: "what would be the most disruptive to the "system""?

[jaichind]

Looks like is a small swing against M5S in the North relative to 2013.   This means M5S must be making large gains in the South.  This bodes well for M5S from the FPTP seats races point of view.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi's former Innovation Minister Renato Brunetta tells Rai that given the election law, Forza Italia will likely win more seats than the League, even with a smaller percentage of the vote. That would give both parties bragging rights to choose the next prime minister if Five Star can't form a government.

[jaichind]

No real results yet in Lazio.  I think that will determine which party in the Center-Right bloc (FI or LN) will emerge as the larger party.

[jaichind]

Looks like is a small swing against M5S in the North relative to 2013.   This means M5S must be making large gains in the South.  This bodes well for M5S from the FPTP seats races point of view.

Which is really bad for Forza in terms of FPTP seats.

Yes.  But if the M5S PR vote over-concentrates in the South and is not strong enough in Central Italy FI could gain back those loses in places like Lazio.

[jaichind]

I know it's very early, but hahaha look at the MS5 numbers in Naples, Christ.

And Sicily

[jaichind]

Italian Senate Seats: RAI Projection

Coalition/List      From   To
Center-Right      124   144
Five Star Movement      102   122
Center-Left      44   64

Top 11 Lists   
Five Star Movement      102   122
Democratic Party      42   54
League      52   62
Forza Italia      46   56
Brothers of Italy      19   29
Free and Equal      6   10
South Tyrolean People’s Party      2   4
Us With Italy - UDC      1   3
+Europe Bonino      0   2
Popular Civic Lorenzin      0   2
Together Italy Europe      0   2
Others      0   2

[jaichind]

Italian Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Second Projection

Coalition   Votes %
Center-Right   36.9%
Center-Left   23.0%

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.3%
Democratic Party   18.7%
League   17.3%
Forza Italia   14.3%
Brothers of Italy   4.3%
Free and Equal   3.4%
+Europe Bonino   2.7%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.0%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%
Together Italy Europe   0.7%

[jaichind]

Italian Senate Elections: LA7 Fourth Projection

Coalition   Votes %
Center-Right   37.5%
Center-Left   23.0%

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.1%
Democratic Party   19.0%
League   17.6%
Forza Italia   14.6%
Brothers of Italy   4.1%
Free and Equal   3.2%
+Europe Bonino   2.4%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.1%
Together Italy Europe   0.7%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%

[jaichind]

Latest Senate seat projections from pollster SWG:
Center-Right (Berlusconi's coalition) - 127-147 seats
5 Star - 95-115 Seats
Center-Left (Renzi & allies) - 50-70 seats

[jaichind]

Still nothing from Lazio ...

[jaichind]

Italy counts slower than Atlanta.

But still faster than Westchester County

[jaichind]

Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Third Projection

PD and FI losing ground relative to second projection

Coalition   Votes %
Center-Right   37.1%
Center-Left   22.9%

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.6%
Democratic Party   18.7%
League   17.7%
Forza Italia   14.0%
Brothers of Italy   4.3%
Free and Equal   3.2%
+Europe Bonino   2.6%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.2%
Together Italy Europe   0.7%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%

[jaichind]

RAI Projection lower house

Looks like LN will be ahead of FI in terms of seats
On the other hand it seems M5S-LN will have a majority of lower house seats

Coalition      From   To
Center-Right      248   268
Center-Left      107   127

Party   
Five Star Movement      216   236
Democratic Party      103   113
League      122   132
Forza Italia      94   104
Brothers of Italy      24   34
Free and Equal      11   21
South Tyrolean People’s Party      3   5
Popular Civic Lorenzin      2   4
Us With Italy - UDC      2   4
+Europe Bonino      0   2
Together Italy Europe      0   2
Others      0   2

[jaichind]

Looks like it will be M5S choice of PD or LN to form the majority.

[jaichind]

EUR still holding steady but various international equity futures are selling off 

[jaichind]

It was thought that Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio may speak tonight -- it now seems he won't. A spokesperson for the party says Di Maio will address the press tomorrow in the early afternoon, without offering further details.   I guess they have no clue what to do now that a government cannot be formed without them.

[jaichind]

Who do you think they're more likely to pick, jaichind?

I do not know.  I do not know very much about Italian politics other than to report the numbers and do the math.  I think they do not know either since they did not expect to do this well.

[jaichind]

Lower House  LA7 By Area Projection

Coalition                     North   Center   South   Total
Center-Right              43.0%   32.7%   30.5%   37.1%
Five Star Movement   24.4%   28.7%   47.3%   32.3%
Center-Left               25.4%   29.7%   15.6%   22.9%
Free and Equal             3.3%   3.7%   2.9%   3.2%
Others                         3.9%   5.2%   3.7%   4.5%

[jaichind]

It seems M5S support is too concentrated in the South.  It is narrowly in 3rd place in the North and Center which is not good in terms of FPTP seats.  I guess they will sweep the South FPTP seats.