German Elections & Politics

[jaichind]

Latest ZDF poll seems to confirm the reopening of a CDU/CSU gap against SPD

CDU/CSU   35
SPD           32
AfD              9
Linke           8
Green          7

[jaichind]

Could you imegune CDU-FDP-SSW? It seems close to the majority. In the last poll 47 % vs. 47 % SPD-G-AfD....

but ssw is below threshold

I think SSW is exempt from the threshold.

[jaichind]

CDU 33%, SOCIAL DEMOCRATS 26% GREENS 13.5%, FDP 11.5%, LEFT 3.5%, AFD 5.5% SSW 3.5%

[jaichind]

CDU 33%, SOCIAL DEMOCRATS 26% GREENS 13.5%, FDP 11.5%, LEFT 3.5%, AFD 5.5%

prediction or actual results???

Exit poll

[jaichind]

Is CDU-FDP-Green or SPD-FDP-Green at all possible?  If not then it is back to good old Grand Alliance.

[jaichind]

Latest NRW-poll for Sunday (YouGov for Sat1):

Wow, if the election turns out this way  that would be another record low for SPD+CDU vote share in NRW.

What is also funny is under this scenario even SPD-Green-Linke is not a viable majority

[jaichind]

kraft hast rejected a coalition with the linkspartei anyway.

lindner has promised not to do an "ampel coalition" and the greens have vetoed the jamaica coalition in NRW....

meaning: either the cdu outperforms their polls massively and the FDP is winning too and they narrowly edging out a majority (only possible if your believe in the current under-polled trends of the last 2 state elections) or groko forever.

With AfD winning near double digits at many state levels and at the federal level, SPD ruling out an alliance with Linke for fear of bleeding votes to CDU, and Greens often showing discomfort with being in an alliance with FDP, means that unless SPD or CDU beats the other decisively (like Bavaria) it is hard to avoid a Grand Coalition across the board.

[jaichind]

Initial forecast: CDU 34.5%, SPD 30.5%, FDP 12%, Green 6%, AfD 7.5%, LEFT 5%

[jaichind]

If Linke falls below 5% a CDU-FDP majority might be viable

[jaichind]

Looks good for CDU and FDP. :-( 10 minutes to go.

Yeah ... wouldn't surprise me if the Kraft/Schulz train heads off the cliff in 5 minutes.

NRW has been referred to as the Greece of Germany ...

Wky is NRW compared to Greece??

Yeah.  I thought NRW was fairly economically advanced, especially in the industrial sector.

[jaichind]

This result would be quite impressive for CDU as my understanding is that Kraft is fairly popular. 

[jaichind]

Current Calculation ARD 18.42: SPD 30.6%, CDU 34.3%, Green 6.1%, FDP 12.2%, Pirates 1.1%, Left 5.0%, AfD 7.7%

[jaichind]

CDU-SPD gap getting smaller.  If it gets any smaller then CDU-FDP majority might not be viable even if Linke falls below 5%

[jaichind]

CDU-FDP only ahead of rest by 1 seat right now.

[jaichind]

It seems it is CDU+FDP 100 seats, everyone else 99 seats. 

[jaichind]

CDU/CSU rising further, SPD collapses even more:



Red-Red-Green also drops below 40% ...

57% CDU/CSU-FDP-AfD
39% SPD-Greens-Left

Wow. This poll has CDU/CSU-FDP at a majority.

[jaichind]

Infratest dimap/ARD (06.06.–07.06):

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 24% (-2)
FDP 10% (+1)
AfD 9%
LIN 8% (+2)
GRÜ 7% (-1)
Others 4%

CDU/CSU+FDP 48%
Red-Red-Greens 39%
AfD 9%

Pretty close to my (most realistic) wish result (Black-yellow with a slim majority and a double digit AfD controlling them to hold on to their campaign programme)

Wow, CDU/CSU-FDP closing in on majority

[jaichind]

Election.de recently gave their forecast, as of July 24, 2017, for current constituencies/riding level outcomes both in terms of first and second place finishes.

That would give CDU 214 CSU 45 SPD 35 Die Linke 4 and Greens 1.  For CDU that would beat 2013 wins of 191.  With both FPD and AfD crossing 5% this time would not this sort of results  should create overhang seats for CSU.  I think the rules now are that the other parties will not be compensated for the CSU overhang seats right ?

[jaichind]

I'm going to go ahead and predict an upset, SPD, Greens, and the Left win a majority (as they did last time) and actually end up forming a government.

You think they can do this with both FDP and AfD crossing 5% ?

[jaichind]

Berlin (DPA) -- Talks to form the so-called "Jamaica" coalition government in Germany have failed, a spokesman for the Free Democrats (FDP) party says.

[jaichind]

I wonder if they will try again in the near future but without Merkel as head of CDU.

[jaichind]

I wonder if they will try again in the near future but without Merkel as head of CDU.

Merkel isn't the reason it failed. If anything, Merkel would have made Jamaica possible. Without Merkel, it becomes even less likely.

I get that but I suspect she will be blamed no matter what for this failure.

[jaichind]

I do not see how another election now would change anything.  CDU/CSU+FDP will still not have a majority.  CDU/CSU will still be greater than SPD.   All things equal I suspect the smaller parties will lose votes to the larger parties (CDU/CSU, SPD) but other than that things will be the same and we will be back to where we started.

[jaichind]

If SPD does join the government it should demand that FDP and Greens also join in this "government of national salvation."  This way next election it would not just be SPD losing votes but FDP and Greens as well.  Since there are caps to AfD and LinkedIn support the total SPD loss can then be minimized.

[jaichind]

SPD now willing to talk to Merkel on Grand Alliance.