India 2014

[jaichind]

A couple of by-elections took place in Karnataka where two existing JD(S) MPs had resigned to be part of the Karnataka state assembly.  There was a de facto JD(S) BJP KJP alliance to take on INC in these two JD(S) bastions where BJP and KJP did not run candidates and endorced the JD(S) candidates.  The result was a victory for INC in both.  Just to see how significant the swings are the results are

Bangalore Rural

2009
JD(S)       44.7%
BJP          32.9%
INC          17.5%

2013
INC          56.7%
JD(S)       44.3%

Mandya

2009
JD(S)       37.3%
INC         35.0%
BJP          14.0%

2013
INC          53.8%
JD(S)       46.2%

Clearly JD(S) and BJP had elements which opposed the alliance for various caste and ideological reasons defected to INC producing a victory for INC for both seats despite a grand anti-INC alliance.

Within JD(S) this is causing conflict.  JD(S) or Janata Dal(Secular) was formed in 1999 to oppose JD(U) that choose to join NDA.  So JD(S)'s DNA is anti-BJP.  Within JD(S), the leader and founder Gowda who was PM back in 1996-1997 as the head of the Third Front government still have national ambitions.  His desire is to ally with various Third Front anti-BJP forces and keep a good relationship with INC so he can become PM again.  Gowda's son Kumaraswamy has ambitions at the state level and desires to be CM which he was in 2006-2007.  He knows given inate INC strength in Karnataka, the best way to be CM is to ally with BJP, despite the hypocracy of such a move.  He did so in 2006-2007 by forming an alliance with BJP over the objections of his father which then fell apart.  Now that BJP is down on its luck again, Kumaraswamy now is for renewing an alliance with BJP defeat INC in the next state assembly elections and become CM.  These by-election results seems to vidicate Gowda's line that a JD(S) BJP alliance does not work on the ground and would only drive various vote blocks toward INC.  To be fair, INC is still in its honeymoon period so it is not clear that on the long run a JD(S)-BJP anti-INC alliance will fail.  Most likely it will due to its ideological contradictions.

In the aftermath of this election defeat Kumaraswamy was demoted by Gowda as he was asked to resign from president of the state unit of the party.  Very likely the Gowda line will be followed by JD(S) in 2014 and there be three way contests between BJP, INC and JD(S). 

There is also now talks that some elements in KJP instead of allying with BJP want to ally with INC.

[jaichind]

Radical Hindu nationalist organization VHP is trying to help BJP by trying to organize a large yatra (or march) in favor of a temple at Ayodhya which is in UP.  The Ayodhya dispute is documented at

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayodhya_dispute

The Hindu belief is that the Rama, an incarnation of the Hindu god Vishnu, was born at Ayodhya at Jan 10th 5114BC between noon and 1pm at a place called Ram Janmabhoomi.  The believe is that this location is at the Babri Mosque, a mosque built by emporor Babur, the first Mughal emperor of India after destoying a Rama temple at said location.  There is dispute on if there was a temple there or not and obviously if Rama, if he existed at all, was born there in 5114BC.  Anyway, a BJP VHP mob in 1992 destroyed the Babri Mosque and after that there is a ongoing debate on if the mosque should be rebuilt or a temple built to replace it or to build both on the same site.

Anyhow, the BJP mostly squeezed whatever poliical advantage it got back in the 1990s.  BJP's decline in UP since the late 1990s is a sign of this.  

VHP is trying to stir things up mostly to help BJP.  Their logic goes like this: With Modi at the helm, what the Muslim vote will do is to vote for whatever party that is in a postion to defeat BJP which will lead to bad results for BJP.  By raising communal tensions does not damage since Modi already has poloarized the Muslim vote.  But what it will do is th get the Hindu vote behind BJP.  Also VHP will count on SP government to stop this yatra and as a result of the conflict between BJP and SP, the Muslim vote will instead vote for SP and not the party that will help defeat BJP and by that logic help BJP.  

Not sure this will work as there seems to be low enthusiasm on the various Hindu nationalist voters in UP to support this yatra since this is an old topic.  And without conflict from a large yatra to get SP to come out to stop it the VHP-BJP plan will not work.  We will see, but so far it is not working out.

[jaichind]

Food Bill passed in Lok Shabha.  Two-thirds of India’s 1.2 billion population, about 800 million people, will be guaranteed subsidised food under the scheme.  INC feel this is a game changer.  It might be true and help INC in 2014.  But this is another freebie giveaway scheme and add to the budget deficit.  This is a personal victory of Sonia Gandhi.

[jaichind]

Speaking of VHP.  VHP mobilizes Sadhus or wondering Hindu monks who have left behind all material attachments as foot soldiers for their campaigns.  

Some pictures of Sadhus and VHP leadership are





which somehow reminds me of the Jedi council

[jaichind]

Is all the rapes reported in western media an issue among politicians in India?!

Might make a difference in wealthy modern urban areas with upper middle class voters, but I suspect it makes little difference in the vast majority of rural areas.  The Food Bill is an example where the INC is pretty much writing off the urban vote, where it was successful in 2009 based on Singh and Rahul Gandhi, in 2014 and going for the rural vote.

[jaichind]

Janata Dal (United) MP from Muzaffarpur Captain (retired) Jai Narain Prasad 'Nishad' recently met Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and expressed his desire that the BJP election Campaign committee chief should become next Prime Minister of India.  Nishad, who had even organised a 'yagna' in March 2013, to seek divine intervention so that Modi could become Prime Minister, has also claimed that he is not concerned about disciplinary actions his party might take after his meeting with Modi becomes public.
"In past, I have changed five political parties and yet I got elected from the Muzaffarpur Lok Sabha seat for five terms. So I am not afraid about any party taking action against me"

Jai Narain Prasad is right.  He has been a member of five parties.  He was a member of Lok Dal, then Janata Dal, then RJD, then JD(U), then BJP, and back to JD(U).  Now he seems to want to jump back to BJP.

Of course when it comes to defections, former Karnataka CM Bangarappa  takes the cake.  He has switched parties nine times in his political career.   Bangarappa began his political career as a socialist, switched to the Congress, left to float the Karnataka Kranti Ranga, rejoined the Congress, left again to launch the Karnataka Congress Party, returned to the Congress, went to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), then joined the Samajwadi Party, and then went again back to the Congress before his last defection to JD(S) right before his death in 2011.

[jaichind]

Correction: contrary to what it looks like on that map, RR Nagar is actually on the southwest side of Bangalore. It's just that there's a outer exurban westside segment reaching down to the territory immediately west of it, that's included in one of the Bangalore urban Lok Sabha constituencies.

Well, either way the district is mostly dominated by the Vokkaligas caste, which usually vote JD(S).  Mainly because Gowda himself is a Vokkaliga.  The BJP, especially when led by Yeddyurappa, who is himself a Lingayat, is the party of the rival Lingayats caste.  One of the reason why the de facto JD(S)-BJP-KJP anti-INC alliance did not work in the by-elections is  the  Vokkaligas who usually vote JD(S) saw this alliance as an alliance with their Lingayats rivals and caused significant defections to INC.  Of course once anti-INC anti-incumbency sets in in the future it might not play out this way. 

[jaichind]

I don't think the rapes will matter politically.

I agree.  All these rape stories will not help India tourism but is a political non-issues outside of certain urban centers, and even there it will not sway votes. 

[jaichind]

In TN, there are signs of INC reaching out to DMDK.  Also PMK is reaching out to DMK and DMDK to form an anti-AIADMK alliance.  It seems INC's strategy is to ally with DMDK and then as a bloc negotiate almost as equals with DMK for an anti-AIADMK grand alliance, perhaps including PMK.

[jaichind]

Modi is anointed as BJP PM candidate.  Advani refuses to arrive at the meeting of his anointment, might exit BJP

[jaichind]

I assume Congress will wait to see what the new Lok Sabha looks like before choosing their PM candidate. Let Singh take the hit and Rahul swoops in later.

That is the INC tradition.  INC usually does not project a PM or CM candidate before the election.  INC high command would appoint a PM or CM after the elections based on consensus or a high command decision in case there is non consensus.   

[jaichind]

Given recent Hindu-Muslim riots in UP which is most likely provoked by BJP and SP, there might be a chance that INC and BSP might come together to form an alliance or at least tactical understanding at the ground level.  Right now BJP and SP are desperate to gain ground in UP so both are polarizing communal tensions and then riots which already killed over thirty people near Muzaffarnagar.   

[jaichind]

lol, this is how INC politicians tweet:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, the act of adding "ji" to every name is an honorific in India.  In theory it should only be added if the person being addressed is Brahman but in reality this is used more widely.  In INC circles which are mostly dominated by upper caste members, the use of "ji" is quite prevalent, especially in Northern India. 

[jaichind]

Who is Rakani and why would he win if Modi does not?

Rajnath Singh, former CM of UP and current president of BJP.  He is close to RSS and does not have good relations with Advani but not really seen as a hardliner like Modi. 

[jaichind]

Duh, I know that, but it was funny seeing it four times in a tweet (also the mix of first names and family names preceding it).

Also, the tweeter is a Muslim.

Sorry.  I did not intend to imply you did not know that.  On this topic, INC leaders in UP are imfamous in overusing "ji".  From a layman's point of view doing this makes them seem pretentious.  In the USA it would be like a guy walking around faking a British accent to make himself seem to be from an educated elite or nobility. 

[jaichind]

Some polls on assembly elections later this year



Rajasthan.   Narrow BJP victory over incumbent INC.   INC keeps its vote share from 2008 but BJP gains from BSP to come out ahead.  Usually polls like this overestimate the opposition while exit polls usually overestimate the incumbent. 




Two polls for Delhi.  INC losing ground but AAP taking anti-INC votes from BJP. Comes down to how much AAP takes determines the difference between INC victory, BJP victory or no overall majority.



Chhattisgarh has both INC and BJP gaining but INC closing the seat gap some more.



Same in MP where both INC and BJP gains votes but INC gains seats. 

[jaichind]

In  Karnataka Yeddyurappa is working toward merging his KJP with BJP.  The core committee KJP which several members which does not have a BJP background have voted to be part of NDA but against such a merger.

[jaichind]

Recent developments in AP is interesting.  TRS is stepping up attacks on TDP after a meeting between TRS leader  K Chandrasekhar Rao visited Delhi to meet with INC.  This could be a sign that INC-TRS merger or alliance is coming soon.  TDP leader Naidu meet with BJP leader Rajnath in signs that TDP-BJP alliance or at least tacit understanding might be coming.  Also, YSRCP leader Jagan was just granted bail after 16 month in jail over possible corruption.  There is talk that this is part of a de facto understanding between INC and YSRCP in the upcoming election.  More likely is INC run on a pro-Telangana platform as the Telangana INC and YSRCP run as the anti-Telangana INC with the two factions merging after the elections with Jagan as CM of AP.

[jaichind]

Outlook magazine just did a survey of political experts and came out with a projection that NDA, which is defined as  BJP + SS + SAD + INLD will get around 187 seats in the upcoming election. 

The survey points out the NDA is unlikely to gain and in fact will might lose seats in Chhattisgarh, HP, Jharkhand, Gujarat and Goa.   NDA will gain in MP, Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi and Maharash­tra.  NDA will for sure lose significant seats in Karn­ataka.  Bihar will be flat at best for NDA and found that NDA will get at most 30 seats in UP. 

The survey points out that NDA will need 90-100 seats to form a government which is bleak given Modi at the helm. 

[jaichind]

Three days after the Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh cleared the controversial ordinance on convicted lawmakers, Congress vice- president Rahul Gandhi led his party’s dramatic U-turn on the issue, trashing the ordinance as “complete nonsense which should be torn apart and thrown away”.

Not sure Manmohan Singh  will stand for this and might resign after he returns to India from New York in UN.  It seems that Rahul and INC think that Singh at this stage is more unpopular than then are and will be a drag in the next election.  Distancing themselves from the fiasco of UPA-II seems like a way to retain some voter support.  This is not a good sign for INC in 2014.

[jaichind]

Any chance of Ron Paul moving to India and making a run for PM?

http://news.yahoo.com/gods-forbid-indias-temples-guard-gold-government-211800927--business.html

I am truly fascinated by India's battle with gold.

Well, it is not just India. They are just afraid the government will pull a FDR.   Remember, FDR back in 1933 first banned ownership of gold, then once all the gold is under his control. devalued the USD against gold by almost 2 to 1. 

[jaichind]

Well, I hope India's not on the verge of a GD.  I read quite a bit and I don't know of any other country that's currently having to deal with anything quite like this.

Well, Indians always viewed gold as a hedge against inflation.  Structural inflation are quite high due to the high government subsidies.  With elections coming up these subsidies will only go up and lead to more inflation.  So there are fears, I feel mostly unfounded, that the government will take away the gold from the private sector. 

[jaichind]

Latest TimesNow C-voter poll.  Modi having an affect.  Now it is NDA 186 vs UPA 117.  Vote share it is NDA 35% UPA 27%.  BJP making gains in UP, Rajasthan, MP and Karnataka since July.  I suspect if NDA is really at 35% then its seat share would be higher than 186 seats.  Back in 2009 UPA got 36% of the vote share and won 259 seats. 

I looked over the results and of survey and adjusted my existing prediction to NDA 167 UPA 135.  This is still assuming no Bihar alliance between INC and RJD/LJP or JD(U).  I do assume some sort of Anti-AIADMK alliance that INC will be part of which TimesNow C-voter does not assume.  In  Jharkhand I still assume an INC-JMM alliance but not a BJP-JVM alliance.  Again, these assumptions are based my gut feelings on how various alliance politics will work out. 

In either case NDA will need to get to 200 to form a government with Modi as PM.  If not I suspect Modi will not make it to PM.

[jaichind]

Recent developments.  Yes Laloo Yadav, leader of RJD is in jail and no longer a MP.  At the same time there is a movement in Bihar INC to resume the RJD-LJP-INC alliance in Bihar.  Their logic is that in a 3 way race (BJP vs JD(U) vs RJD-LJP) having the caste equations right as well making use of the anti-Modi polorization is key.  Their argument is that the sympathy factor will be on RJD side given what happen to Laloo.  Remember, the logic of the Indian voter is that an election loss clenses a politician of wrong-doing.  So Laloo already been punished for his corrupt regime in 2005 2009 and again in 2010.  Putting him in jail now actually creates a sympathy wave for him.  Also a RJD-LPJ-INC would consolidate the Muslim voting base of RJD with INC's role as the anti-Modi party. 

Rahul Gandhi, it is said, is for a JD(U)-INC alliance.  His logic is a game theory argument that a RJD-LJP-INC alliance could push BJP and JD(U) back togeather whereas there is no way BJP and RJD could come togeather.  He views BJP, JD(U), and RJD-LJP as roughly equal so as long as it is a three way race, the side INC joins will win.  So a JD(U)-INC alliance ensures a three way race.

The RJD-LJP now sees 2014 as now or never and are working overtime to get INC in their camp. JD(U) is still shopping around and trying to organize an anti-INC anti-BJP alliance.  Given this is the case it is more likely more not that the RJD-LJP-INC alliance will be revived.  We will see.

[jaichind]

Things are not going well for BJP in the upcoming Delhi assembly election.  It was shaping up to be a BJP victory given the anti-INC upsurging in Delhi.  Then the AAP jumped into the fray and are splitting the anti-INC vote.  Then SAD alliance fell apart in Delhi (there are significant Sikh population in Delhi so it makes a difference.)  Now there is massive revolt within the BJP over who to project as CM candidate as the BJP is split down the middle between two factions.  After months of dithering, BJP declared amiable face Harsh Vardhan as its chief ministerial candidate for Delhi Assembly elections despite opposition by city unit chief Vijay Goel.  But  the BJP Delhi unit chief Vijay Goel is not likely to go all out to support the BJP effort.  If INC manages to scrape by then it is another lost opportunity for BJP.