India 2014

[jaichind]

Samay-Hub Pulse pre-poll survey

MP
           votes    
BJP       37        
INC      34

With BJP going from 143 to 124 but still retaining majority


Delhi
           votes    seats
BJP       38          32
INC      37          31
AAP      19           6

Result will be hung


Chhattisgarh

          votes    seats
BJP      41         46
INC     39          42

With BJP going from 50 to 46 but still retaining tiny majority


Rajasthan

          seats
BJP       103
INC        79

BJP capturing a narrow majority from a small INC majority.

In all 4 states the ruling party will take losses.  For the BJP in MP and Chhattisgarh it is not enough for it to lose power.

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN poll for MP and Chhattisgarh shows BJP growing its majority in terms of both seats and vote share.

[jaichind]

Voting already took place for part of Chhattisgarh.  MP, Delhi, and Rajasthan will vote soon.  Votes will be counted Dec 7th.  The consensus seems to be

Delhi - Three way race between INC, BJP and AAP.  INC will slight advantage. 
MP - INC to make gains but not enough retake the majority from BJP.
Rajasthan - INC to lose power and go from a slight majority to a slight majority for BJP.
Chhattisgarh - Will be very close, INC could recapture the majority from BJP.  Will be a tossup.
Mizoram - Hard to say.  Most likely INC will retain majority.

[jaichind]

Different parts of  Chhattisgarh are voting and the second phase is done.  They do votes in phases due to Maoist threats so the military needs to deploy in different sections one at a time to deter Maoist rebels from attacking voting stations.  Anyway, turnout is much higher than expected and most likely exceeded 2008 levels by 10%.  If so the the result might be more volatile.  Whereas the base case was BJP in a narrow win, the result might range from an INC landslide to BJP landslide.  In that sense chances of INC winning has gone up so I guess this is good news for INC.  Of course it might also mean a INC blowout by BJP.

[jaichind]

AC Nielsen-ABP News came out with a poll projecting that in Rajasthan it will be a thin BJP victory of 105 seats versus 75 seats for INC.  INC set to lose 3.9% of the vote and BJP set to win 2.4% of the vote from 2008 according to AC Nielsen.

[jaichind]

Will the turnout effect the outcome and in which ways? I have read that polls and exit polls are forbidden so I was surprised by this poll.

INC in fact is asking ECI to punish AC Nielsen-ABP for publishing this poll.

[jaichind]

Rajasthan assembly elections see record 74.38% voter turnout.  Whereas before the CW is that the BJP is slightly ahead of INC, this turnout means that the INC will be defeated by a wide margin.  Of course earlier record turnout in Chhattisgarh and MP also imply that the BJP stands a strong chance of being ousted in Chhattisgarh, and will lose significant ground in MP with an outside chance of losing power even in MP.

Overall this is bad news for INC in 2014 as this level of turnout seems to imply the voting population is fed up with the state of affairs.  If replicated in the general election, the UPA will lose by a mile.

[jaichind]

Why? Is this just anti incuembency high turnout? Might it not be positive for BJP even Where it rules?!

It is quite possible.  Most surges in turnout tends to be negative news for the incumbent party.

[jaichind]

Record turnout in Delhi.  INC is toast there.

Now that voting is over my view are:

Delhi: Both BJP and AAP did well on high turnout.  BJP will be largest party but not have majority.  AAP somewhat behind INC and will be kingmaker.  Most likely a BJP led minority government.

Chhattisgarh:  Will be close but I think chances are higher for INC to be largest party rather than BJP.  It is possible that no party will have overall majority but INC is more likely to be the biggest party and lead the government.

MP:  BJP is losing ground with chances of INC outright victory still less than 50/50.  INC for sure will gain seats.

Rajasthan:  INC is out and BJP will capture a soild majority.

[jaichind]

Exit polls just came out from C-voter.

Rajasthan: BJP 130 INC 48 (total 200)
New Delhi: BJP 29, INC 21, AAP 16 (total 70)
MP: BJP 128, INC 92 (total 230)
Chhattisgarh: BJP 44, INC 41 (total 90)

If the exit polls are this close for Chhattisgarh then most likely INC won.  Exit polls tend to overestimate the incumbent party.  Looks like it will be close in MP, and INC faces wipeout in Rajastan, just like I said. 

[jaichind]

"In Congress-ruled Mizoram, the ruling party is projected to win 19 seats of the total 40 seats. The Mizo National Front (MNF) plus Mizo People's Conference (MPC) is likely to win 14 seats, the Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP) five seats, and others two seats."

Looks like INC will return to power in Mizoram by roping in a partner.

[jaichind]

Predictions

Rajasthan:
BJP        135
INC         50
Others    15

New Delhi:
BJP          26
INC         19
AAP         23
Others     2

MP:
BJP         120
INC        100
Others    10

Chhattisgarh:
BJP          40
INC         45
Others     5

[jaichind]

Counting on its way.

INC destroyed in Delhi and Rajastan.  AAP running second in Delhi and so far it seems BJP will be largest party in Delhi but not a majority.  INC seems to be leading in Chhattisgarh.   MP is a surprise for me as BJP is gaining seats from INC.

[jaichind]

Leader of BJP and now likely CM of Delhi talked about doing judo classes for the women of Delhi to beat back the wave of rapes in Delhi.

[jaichind]

So far it is

Rajasthan:
BJP        159
INC         25
Others    15

New Delhi:
BJP          34
INC           8
AAP         26
Others     2

MP:
BJP         161
INC          60
Others      9

Chhattisgarh:
BJP          46
INC         44
Others     0

Note these are with leads so some shifting around will take place.  Chhattisgarh now could go either way. I generally got the trends correct but with a pro-INC bias.  MP I was totally off as I expected INC to gain seats and not lose around 11 seats.

[jaichind]

Sheila Diksh**t, the three time INC Delhi CM, lost her seat to AAP leader Kejriwal.  Kejriwal ran against her explicitly to make the point that AAP was a viable alternative.  The gamble paid off as AAP won, it seems, around 26 seats and is keeping BJP from a majority in Delhi.

[jaichind]

Looking over the results it seems one of the reasons I got MP wrong was the affect of the who 2008 Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party voters voted for this time.  Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party was BJP rebel group led my former CM of MP  Uma Bharti and ran in 2008 getting around 5% of the vote.  Uma Bharti has since rejoined BJP folding Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party into BJP.  It seems these voters voted for BJP whereas I expected them to vote for INC.  I viewed Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party voters in 2008 as anti-incumbent voters when in reality they were BJP voters but supported Bharti.  This made the difference between my prediction and the real results.

[jaichind]

Final results

Delhi
BJP          32
INC           8
AAP         28
Others      2

Rajastan
BJP         162
INC          21
Others     16

MP
BJP         165
INC          58
Others       7

Chhattisgarh
BJP          49
INC          39
Others      2

Mirzoram
INC          33
MNF           5
Others       2

[jaichind]

In terms of vote share the BJP victories in MP and Rajasthan are not that massive.  INC vote share in fact is slowing rising in 3 of the 4 states with the exception of Delhi.  What is interesting is that this time NOTA (none of the above) is now an option but very few people actually choose it.

MP
                 2003        2008         2013
BJP            42.5        38.09          44.87
INC            31.7        32.85          36.82

So what is taking place here the fall in BSP and others vote share and polarization toward BJP INC which this cycle favors the BJP.  But INC is also gaining votes from 2003 to 2008 and to 2013.  The BJP-INC gap is lower in 2013 when compared to 2003.  Note that BJSP which is a BJP splinter won 4.71% of the vote in 2008. So in 2008 BJP+BJSP is 42.8.  In other words BJP vote share in MP is mostly stable 2003 2008 and then 2013 while INC vote share is rising each year.

Rajasthan
                 2003        2008         2013      
BJP             46             35.6          46
INC             34             36.9          33.68

So 2013 is really the same as 2003.  This state for sure lean BJP since the vote share when INC wins has a lower winning margin than when BJP wins.

Chhattisgarh
                 2003        2008         2013
BJP            39.26        40.33         41.04
INC            36.7          38.6           40.29

Vote share is slowing going up for both BJP and INC with INC slowing closing the gap.

Delhi
                  2003        2008         2013
BJP              35.22       36.34        33
INC              48.13       40.3          25
AAP                                               30

Here is clearly a place where the INC vote share got dented over time, unlike the other 3 states.  But this more about AAP taking a lot more INC vote share than it took from BJP.

So what does all this mean for 2014.  Simple: State polls do not guarantee 2014 BJP triumph.  Note that 2013 is really not that bad for INC outside of Delhi when compared to 2003.  Note that after 2003, UPA won in 2004 general elections.  

It is clear that INC is losing ground and in BJP vs INC states INC's double incumbency means that the BJP will gain.  But most places it is regional parties that will dominate and support for regional parties is set to grow in the 2014 parliamentary elections.  BJP clearly did well in urban areas.  But that is same as the vote base as the AAP.  If AAP decides to run in other states it could take a lot of the urban anti-INC votes from BJP.  It is clear that the UPA will lose in 2014.  It is not clear that NDA will win.

[jaichind]

The national BJP is coming out in full attack mode on the AAP. 

"BJP leader Arun Jaitley today dared Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to form a government with Congress support and fulfil "unrealistic promises" instead of avoiding power where it will be like a "fish out of water"."

I guess they also see the threat that I pointed out AAP pose to BJP if it were to go national.  It would split the BJP urban vote base.

[jaichind]

Good points AG.  Sorry, I always meant to say BJP+ when I said BJP won 32 seats.  Note that SAD is not really a satellite of BJP, even in Delhi.  Earlier on SAD threatened to run independent of BJP when it did not get enough seats for itself.  It forced a compromise and the alliance resumed.

It seems both BJP and INC see the AAP as a threat and both want the AAP to come to power with their support so the population can see that they are just another political party, especially with AAP without a majority so it has to look in the rear view mirror all the time.  That for sure is the BJP motivation as the AAP can eat into its base.  INC is mostly about that with an outside chance of a de facto alliance with AAP in 2014.

Of course the AAP is not biting.  So now we are stuck with no government and a chance of another vote.

[jaichind]

How likely do y'all think it is for the government to reverse the gay rights decision, as they've pledged to do?

INC is making this an issue but it will only make noises to try to capture the youth vote.  It will not actually take steps to pass a law to reverse the gay ban since that would mean it would lose in its rural base.  BJP as a Hindu party will not be motivated to act to reverse the gay ban.  So nothing will take place on this issue until 2014 elections and most likely for years after that especially if the BJP is part of the ruling coalition.   

[jaichind]

It seems DMK has ruled out an alliance with INC for 2014 elections.  It most likely means a INC-DMDK alliance and also almost makes sure that AIADMK would come out the winner.  DMK clearly is doing this as it senses an anti-INC wave and in TN specifically on the Sri Lanka Tamil minority issue where the INC is seen to be condoning the Sri Lanka regime.  I wonder which alliance would PMK gravitate toward.  PMK for sure will not join AIADMK alliance so it could go with either DMK or INC-DMDK.

[jaichind]

Lalu Yadav is said to be out on bail soon.  This and the drubbing the INC took in the 2013 assembly elections means that JD(U) might opt to go it alone as a weakened INC might have to accept a low number of seats in an alliance with a revived RJD-LJP alliance.

[jaichind]

There are hints that in AP, TDP and BJP might revive their alliance.  This would be significant as this has the potential to add a bunch more seats to both BJP and TDP.  Not sure how this would play out as BJP would insist on a pro-Telangana position which in turn would hurt TDP-BJP in the rest of AP where YSRCP would capture the anti-Telangana vote.  If TDP-BJP are vague on the Telangana issue then they would leave the Telangana field to TSR and INC.