2013 Elections in Germany

[jaichind]

I am always impressed by how good Germany exit polling are, especially in light of horrible exit polling in USA.  I wonder how Germany exit polling firms does it ? 

[jaichind]

You have to help me here.  Why would we view the results as McAllister's idea has backfired?  It seems to me if some CDU voters voted for FDP, that did not diminish the CDU/FDP total vote.  It seems the defeat was really a function of CDU+FDP votes numbered less than SPD+Green voters by a slim margin.  It seems if McAllister did not do what he did and FDP falls below 5%, that would just mean a larger SPD+Green majority as all FDP votes would have been wasted.  He merely came up with the only strategy that gave him a chance for him to keep his position.  The fact it did not work merely means that the votes were not there for him ever to win in this election, not that the idea is a bad one.

Some interesting results here, and I stand corrected on my overall prediction. At least I got "inflated FDP" tendentially right.

Talking about McAllister's very bad, not good, horrible day: His seemingly ingenious idea - give CDU voters a hint to vote FDP - backfired terribly. Not only did it not work; due to his shenanigans, his much celebrated and favoured CDU lost over 6% and 14 seats. Somehow I feel that his political future will lie outside of Lower Saxony.

For me, the real surprise of the evening was not the FDP's strong showing, but the all right result for the SPD. I had really expected for their vote to collapse, given the media climate right now. Instead they held their own, which I attribute to Stephan Weil, who was obviously perceived as a decent, competent candidate.

By the way: This is not over yet. One seat is a very thin majority, and red-green could have a hard time electing their PM, or hanging on for the full term.

[jaichind]

Understood, thanks a lot for making this clear for me.  Of course from a CDU point of view, to lower its vote to help the FDP only to lose the election anyway is a significant setback from both ends.  But I always figured that the SPD/Greens getting a constructive majority in Bundesrat would be such a setback to the government that it should pull out every trick in the bag to stop it.

As outsiders, we tend to perceive "black-yellow" as one homogenous voting bloc. The 14 CDU MPs who lost their jobs yesterday would beg to differ. The same is true for Merkel and the national CDU, who get a lot of negative media attention right now, thanks to McAllister's poor results. The best sign that his strategy was a failure is the fact that hordes of CDU/CSU politicians are condemning it right now.

Moreover, and this is my main point, McAllister's strategy of secretly endorsing the FDP was not even necessary. FDP core support is at 3%, i.e. they'll get that, no matter what. Now, given the polls right before the election, it was always clear there would be enough CDU voters to put them over the threshold. McAllisters stealthy FDP campaign amplified this effect to exaggerated levels. Most people on this board - even the ones not familiar with Lower Saxony politics - were able to predict this. McAllister, an experienced career politician, was not. Instead, he shot himself in the foot. He might have lost anyway, but at least he could have blamed it on the FDP.  

[jaichind]

With this election, SPD will be in every Lander government except for Bavaria, Hesse, and Saxony.  Unless CSU falls apart I do not see SPD being in government there after elections this year.  Hesse which will have elections late 2013 or early 2014 should be on route to a SPD/Green majority but really should be a function of what takes place in federal elections in Sept 2013.  As for Saxony, which is later in 2014, it comes down to if FDP can cross 5%.  If it cannot then SPD will be in government as well as a part of CDU/SPD grand coalition.  So I can see a situation a year and half  from now where SPD will be in every Lander government execpt Bavaria.  Quite an accomplishment. 

[jaichind]

INSA poll for Bild

CDU/CSU          40
FDP                    5
SPD                  28
Greens             15

Still finding out what Left got, but FDP is past 5.  It is unlikely that CDU/CSU/FDP will end up with majority.

[jaichind]

ZDF federal poll

CDU/CSU  40
FDP            4
SPD          28
Green       14
Left            6

[jaichind]

Tender, please! Either publish all incoming polls, or put individual polls into context. Infratest dimap has continuously been showing 2-3% more for the CDU than all other pollsters. And their latest results are exactly the same as last week, with the exception of -1% SPD and +1% Pirates.

Here is the latest-"poll of polls", covering 3 more new entries in addition to infratest dimap: Emnid (3.8.), TNS (5.8.), FORSA (7.8.) (Previous "poll of polls" in brackets):

CDU:        40.3 (40.4)
SPD:        24.8 (25.2)
Grüne:     13.5 (13.6)
Linke:        7.5  (7.4)
FDP:          5.0  (4.8 )
Pirates       2.8 (2.4)
AfD            2.3 (2.4)

It is called "Sommerloch"! Holiday season, nothing happening. Things will only start to get moving in 2-3 weeks from now - if at all. Otherwise, we will all be in for a long election night ...

It seems that CDU/CSU/FDP has a reasonable shot capturing a majority by FDP being over 5% and CDU/CSU+FDP > SDP + Greens + Left with a combined vote share as low as 45.5-46.  If so then I believe it would be the the smallest vote share the resulted in a governing majority in the history of the Federal Republic.  I still feel the chances of this is less than 50% but it has a reasonable chance of taking place.  

[jaichind]

http://www2.fr-online.de/bundestags-wahlhelfer/index.php

I got

62% for FDP
45% for CDU/CSU
17% for Green Party
17% for Left
14% for SPD

Not surprising.  FDP is about the only party I would support in Germany.  Even CDU/CSU is too left wing for me in terms of economic policy.         

[jaichind]

1998, 2002 and 2005 showed how much impact a popular leader and good campaigner (in this case, Schröder) can have. No doubt, such things can and will happen again. The general trend, however, remains intact. Just take a look at the following chart (SPD trendline by me). It shows that the SPD has been in a more or less steady decline since 1972. The seven-year-interval between 1998 and 2005 constitutes a deviation, after which the vote share reverted back to the trendline. So, the 23% result in 2009 was actually no shocking, outrageous aberration, but completely in line with a trend that's been going on for over 40 years now.

Could not one make the same argument about CDU/CSU from 1983 where it seems by looking at the chart that it is also in free fall after 1983.  I think what we are observing is the decline of the two party system in Germany with the rise of Greens and then Left and now Pirates and AfD.  In fact various minor parties (much of it the far right) seems to also have increased their share of the vote over the last few decades as well.

[jaichind]

It seems that AfD might get above 5%.  If so the CDU/CSU-FDP will not get a majority for sure.  Anyone know which site the artcile is talking about "An Internet-based exchange that allows investors to buy and sell “shares” of parties with real money"?

-----------------------------

German Anti-Euro Party May Win More Votes Than Polls Show

By Rainer Buergin
Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- German polling company chiefs said they may be underreporting voter support for the country’s five-month old Alternative for Germany -- a party that rejects the euro -- partly because some of its backers won’t reveal how they plan to vote in interviews.
People who don’t support the established parties aren’t always willing to express their opinions and this may add as much as 2.5 percentage points to a core of sympathizers that represents around 2.5 percent of the voters, TNS Emnid chief Klaus-Peter Schoeppner and Forsa head Manfred Guellner said in telephone interviews.
“I’m unsure as to what’s really below the visible tip of the iceberg” in support for the AfD, Guellner said. “We have them at 2-3 percent in the polls right now, but I don’t know what’s below the waterline.”
Underreporting of the AfD’s potential may yield a surprise result on election night that denies Chancellor Angela Merkel the option of continuing her coalition with the Free Democrats. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s announcement that Greece needs a third aid program may have given the AfD a boost by putting the euro region crisis back on the agenda.
“We occasionally get tips from informants” at polling companies that actual support is higher than reported support, AfD chairman Bernd Lucke said today at a press conference in Berlin. He said the party would poll as high as 8 percent at Forsa and above 5 percent at Allensbach if results were adjusted differently. Forsa’s latest polls puts the AfD at 2 percent and Allensbach at 3 percent.

Hidden Supporters
Asked about Lucke’s comments, Forsa’s Guellner said his company treats the AfD like any other party, cautioning though that its number of unreported supporters may be larger than for other parties. Forsa won’t change its polling methodology, he said.
“As far as we’re concerned, this is completely made up,” Allensbach chief Renate Koecher said in a phone interview. “We don’t have the AfD higher in the raw data than what we publish.”
An Internet-based exchange that allows investors to buy and sell “shares” of parties with real money had the AfD at 6.46 percent support at 3:48 p.m. Such a result would limit coalition options for the election winner.
Schaeuble’s mention of a third Greek program “doesn’t benefit the opposition parties, in other words the SPD and the Greens, because they had to back the bailout packages due to the state-supporting roles they play,” Guellner said. “It’s the AfD that benefits.”

AfD Rises
The AfD rose two percentage points to 3 percent in a weekly Emnid poll for Bild am Sonntag newspaper yesterday, the first survey taken after Schaeuble’s Aug. 20 comments on Greece.
While the AfD’s election platform rests mainly on the rejection of the euro, which the party says overburdens the currency union’s weaker members without benefiting Germany, some of its supporters will cast their votes for other reasons as well, Guellner said.
“The AfD pushes into a segment of German society that has always been somewhat difficult, a segment of the middle class that worries about losing its status, that feels crushed between the top and bottom,” Guellner said. “Many of them don’t talk to us and that’s why we have unreported numbers.”
While 3 percent of poll respondents are committed to backing the AfD, 8 percent are considering voting for the party on Sept. 22, Koecher said in an Aug. 21 Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung article.

‘Talk Up’
Before 1996 elections in three western German states, Forsa predicted that parties of the “radical right” would miss the 5 percent hurdle required to win seats in parliament, Guellner said. Still, Die Republikaner, a far-right party that warns against mass immigration and wants the deutsche mark back, got almost 10 percent at the time in Baden-Wuerttemberg, almost twice Forsa’s prediction.
Koecher, in an April 1996 interview with Der Spiegel magazine, said she expected the Republikaner to get more votes than the 4.5 percent Allensbach measured and published then, but decided to keep quiet because she was concerned it would be interpreted as an attempt to “talk up” the party.
“We conduct representative polls, but there are certain groups we can’t capture,” Guellner said. Based on the 1996 forecast experience, turnout for the AfD “may be double of what we measure now” on Sept. 22 Election Day.
Lucke said the AfD has received a “noticeable” increase in support over the past two to three weeks, with more people attending rallies and speaking to party officials in the streets.

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-08/merkel-says-danger-spd-may-break-vow-and-ally-with-left-party.html

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there’s a danger that the opposition Social Democrats and the Greens may break a pledge not to ally with the anti-capitalist Left Party in a bid to take power.

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Good line of attack since it seems that polls all mostly want a Merkel led government but support for a CDU/CSU/SPD government seems to outnumber a CDU/CSU/FDP government.  So I guess one week before the election Merkel is coming out and saying that if you vote for a CDU/CSU/SPD  government by voting for SPD you could end up with SPD/Green/Left government.

[jaichind]

Something occurred to me about this election.  It seems that the polls seems to show a neck-to-neck race between CDU/CSU/FDP and SPD/Green/Left with the understanding that if SDP/Green/Left comes out ahead then Merkel will have to go for a Grand Alliance.  If so its it not possible that CDU/CSU/FDP vote share falls below  SPD/Green/Left but because of overhang seats for CSU/CSU,  CDU/CSU/FDP trumps SPD/Green/Left in terms of seats.  Of course this is assuming that AfD does not cross 5%.  It seems that there is a reasonable chance this might happen since the CDU/CSU lead over SPD seems significant and tactical voting by FDP and AfD voters for CDU/CSU on the first ballot is likely to occur.   How likely do people on this thread think it is likely to occur.

[jaichind]

Franknburger, Thanks a bunch for your info on overhand seats.  That was very useful for me to learn.

As for the Linke scare tactics by Merkel I agree that CDU/CSU does it every election but I would think given how close CDU/CSU/FDP vs SPD/Green/Linke this might have an affect on the leaning SPD/pro-Schroeder wing voter.  This would be the group of voters that would be for SPD but also for a CDU/CSU/SPD government.  I would imagin this is the same group that would be for a SPD/FDP government in 1998 if that were possible.  If this bloc of possible SPD voter does not exist then why should SPD just come out in favor of a SPD/Green/Linke government in case a SPD/Green majority is not possible.  The fact it does not might be for historical reasons but it might be for reasons that SPD coming out with might lose votes. 

[jaichind]

And the latest Saxony state-level polling from August hat the FDP just around 5% (down from 10%)....

It seems that if CDU/CSU/FDP loses their majority next week then it is very likely FDP will cross 5% in the next Saxony state elections as anti-incumbency at the federal level will not be against them.  Also even if FDP falls below 5% in Saxony, if NPD also falls below 5% then it is possible and  even likely that CDU might just end up with a majority on its own.  

[jaichind]

My understanding is that Merkel has ruled out an alliance with AfD post election.

[jaichind]

My gut feeling is that today's election actually will hep FDP to get over 5% next week.   The logic is obvious, that CDU/CSU voters which are inclined toward CDU/CSU/FDP seeing that FDP falling below 5% in Bavaria are more likely to vote FDP tactically next week.

[jaichind]

In Bavaria it seems SPD+Greens+Linke are down 1% from 2008.  Some of the loss I am sure is to the Pirates, but this not a good sign for next week.

[jaichind]

In theory FDP getting 3.3% in Bavaria is a horrible result, especially in light of the fact that in 2005 Federal elections FDP got 9.5% in Barvaria vs 9.8% Germany-wide and in 2009 FDP got 14.7% in Bavaria vs 14.6% Germany-wide.  On the other hand it seems tactical voting by CSU supporters works differently between Land and Federal elections.  FDP getting 2.6% of the vote in 2003 Bavaria state elections did not stop it from getting 9.5% in Barvaria two years later in 2005 Federal elections.  Likewise FDP getting 8% in 2008 Bavaria state elections did not stop it from getting 14.7% in Barvaria one year later in 2009 Federal elections. 

If we go back to Sept 2008 when Barvaria last had its lander polls and where FDP got 8%, FDP was polling around 13% in National polls even though in both 2005 and 2005 FDP support in Barvaria in Federal elections pretty much matched.  If we do the same for Sep 2003 for the Barvaria state elections where FDP got 2.6%, FDP was polling around 6% nationally. 

So it seems to me that the CDU/CSU tactical voting for FDP has to be worse than 2005 and 2009 for FDP to fall below 5%.  It is possible that is why Philipp Roesler of the FDP is already started making appeals for tactical voting today.  Like I said before, my got feeling is that tactical voting for FDP would be there and push it over 5% next Sunday.

[jaichind]

It is interesting to look at the polls and note the various zero sum shifts between SPD, Linke, and Greens. It seems SPD+Linke+Greens is currently poilling about the same as their collective result back in 2009.   So this election will be decided by a) Will FDP cross 5% (I am pretty sure they will) and b) how much AfD take away from CDU/CSU+FDP and obviously will they cross 5%.
 

[jaichind]

   I'm interested in just what percentage of votes go to parties that don't cross the 5% threshold.  If FDP and AFD both narrowly fail that will be alot.  Also, if just one of them fails it means that of say 10% of the vote going to parties under 5%, a strong majority will be going to parties of the right and/or center.  So we could see a situation where a very narrow majority  of the vote goes to parties from the FDP rightwards, but such parties would gain only about maybe 48% of the seats, if only one of the FDP or AfD makes it into the Bundestag.
    I'm calculating that alot of the vote for sonstiges (others) is for right leaning parties, and am counting the Pirates as on the left.

How would you count the Animal Protection party.  In theory that should be Left but one can argue that the NASDP regime (ironically) was also very into animal rights and pass the world's real animal rights laws.   I guess Ecological Democratic Party counts as right.  In fact one can use the back to nature arguments for both these parties label them as Right.

[jaichind]

Wait just a damn minute. This Euro-skeptic party might siphon off enough votes that the center-right bloc might come in second to the left bloc? Really? What a horrible country. Honest to God.

Yep, in fact the best way to force a Grand Coalition is vote for AfD.  If AfD passes 5% then there is no alternative to CDU/CSU-SPD govenment.  In fact a vote for AfD is the best way to to stop a SPD-Green-Linke government even though SPD insist that such a government is not possible. AfD getting across 5% will make it mathamatically not possible.  Just like a vote for AfD is the best way to stop a CDU/CSU-FDP government.

[jaichind]

Prediction

CDU/CSU              37.5
FDP                        6.5
-------------------------------
                            44.0

SPD                      27.0
Green                    8.5
Linke                     9.0     
-------------------------------
                            44.5

AfD                        5.0
Pirate                    2.5
Other                    4.0   
------------------------------
                           11.5

AfD goes over 5% threshold.  Tactical voting pushes FDP to 6.5%

Result:  CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition

[jaichind]

The ideal scenario for FDP on the long run is for AfD to fail to pass 5%, FDP to pass 5% but CDU/CSU+FDP to fall below SPD+Greens+Linke.  This way a CDU/CSU-SPD government is form and FDP can be the anti-establishment opposition party on the Right like it was in 2005-2009 while AfD fades away.  BTW, this is also the scenario I suspect Linke would prefer as well as it can be the anti-establishment party of the Left.  Both FDP and Linke can scoop up the anti-incumbent support.  

If FDP barely makes it past 5% I am not sure it can survive another 5 years in government when the next German government will have to make a lot of touch choices where there are not a lot of good solution but only trade-offs.

[jaichind]

Lol, just saw this pointed out: If you're in the precinct by 6pm, you can still cast your vote.

There's nothing in the law text banning you from going in, checking the 6pm prognosis via smartphone, and only then casting your vote. If you're unsure about your preferred party making it over 5%.

Yes.  Of course this trick is not scaleable.  If enough people do this then the exit polls loses their relative accuracy.  So this only works if a very small portion of the voters does this.  In which case the cases where this will make a difference will only be when a party is very close to 5%.

[jaichind]

Any recommended links for results? This includes TV channels.