Japan 2012

[jaichind]

In 2005 LDP landslide LDP+NKP got 51.5% of PR vote and 2009 DPJ landslide LDP+NKP got 38.2% of the PR vote.  This time LDP+NKP will get around 42%-43% of the vote (my educated guess.)  Funny how from a vote share point of view this election is closer to the 2009 election but the results exceeds even 2005.  Split of the LDP vote is the story here.

[jaichind]

Voter turnout in Sunday's House of Representatives election in Japan is estimated at 59.52 percent, below the record low of 59.65 percent in the 1996 election, according to a Kyodo News tally.

[jaichind]

Osaka ends up JRP 12 LDP-NKP 7
Aichi is a dramatic turnaround.  In 2009 it was DPJ 15 LDP-NKP 0.  It is now LDP-NKP 12 DPJ 2 and 1 outstanding. 
Most of oustanding seats are in Tokyo where 6 are still out.  It is LDP-NKP 18 DPJ 1 and 6 outstanding.  Back in 2009 it was DPJ 21 LDP-NKP 4.
 

[jaichind]

Grey is not counted.  By the time it is all counted LDP-NKP should have more than 320 seats. 

Does the NHK ticker count LDP/NKP together or separately? Cause right now they don't have 2/3 if grouped together. I assume light grey is miscellaneous.

[jaichind]

Another thing that is interesting is that it looks like JRP would capture more PR votes than DPJ.  If that is the case then this could pose a threat to the existance of the DPJ, much more so than in 2005.  On the other hand I can see JRP falling apart very soon now that its goal of being a critical swing block has failed in this election.

[jaichind]

Only 3 seats in Tokyo left, and 15 PR seats still not determined.  Tokyo PR count is also very slow.  The count in the PR section is slowing turning against LDP+NKP.   I figure they would get 42% vs 43% now.  LDP+NKP has 317 out of 462 seats determined.   I figure they will have about 325 or so when this is done.  Not as a massive victory as it seems before in the count but pretty much rivals the Koizumi landslide of 2005 with a less votes.  Pretty impressive. Of course in 2006 Abe took over the LDP+NKP majority of a similar size and we know what happen after that.

[jaichind]

Look at the PR results as they come in I am thinking that LDP-NKP will be around 40% maybe even less. Wow, we have a system where 40% of the vote gets you a 2/3 of the seats even though almost 40% of the seats are determined by PR.  This is amazing.  Of course, one thing is for sure, the LDP-NKP in 2012 on the PR list got LESS votes then it did in 2009 when it was destroyed in a landslide. 

[jaichind]

Looking at what we know about LDP-NKP PR vote
and comparing to 2009

                           2009              2012
Hokkaidō             37.2                37.4
Tōhoku                37.6                37.8
Northern Kantō   37.2                40.8
Southern Kantō   36.0                37.0
Tōkyō                   35.9                35.0
Hokuriku-Shin      36.9                40.1
Tōkai                    36.8               38.5
Kinki                     36.2               36.6
Chūgoku              45.4                48.6
Shikoku                45.0                45.7
Kyūshū                 44.4                45.6
----------------------------------------------------------
                            38.5                 ?

There seems to be a swing of 1% to 2% to LDP-NKP so LDP-NKP will end up with around 40%.   But nothing to write home about.  Of course one reads all these articles about people switching to vote for LDP-NKP but I just do no see it from data above.  It seems more about DPJ voters not showing up and what did show up splintered between DPJ, JRP, YP, Future Party, and SDP.  Also what is funny is in the place where turnout is higher, Tokyo, LDP-NKP actually lost ground.

[jaichind]

Another winner in addition to LDP-NKP seems to YP (Your Party) which went from 5 in 2009 to 18 in 2012.  It seems it got around 8-9% of the PR vote versus 4.27% back in 2009. 

[jaichind]

Based on personal tabulation of numbers in PR list I get

LDP        27.63%
NKP        11.83%  -> LDP+NKP 39.46%
JRP         20.83%
DPJ         16.00%
PNP          0.12% -> DPJ+PNP  16.12%
YP             8.72%
JCP           6.13%
Future      5.69%
SDP          2.36%
Daichi       0.58%
HRP          0.36%
NRP          0.22%

So LDP+NKP could not even cross 40%.  This is the worst showing by LDP+NKP in the PR vote since the 1993 system was established except for 2009.  

From a DPJ point of view, there is not time to lose.  They have to hope that the new LDP-NKP stumbles and the JRP starts falling apart.  Even if that were to take place the only way DPJ can take advantage of this is if it forms an alliance with itself, SDP and Future Party into a broad center-left block.  Only then can it take advantage of problems in LDP-NKP and JPR in the 2013 upper house elections.  Or else JRP might take the position of the main opposition party and DPJ will turn into another SDP. 

[jaichind]

TV Tokyo asked 100 political reporters who the most effective politicians were and they came up with that list. Noda was the favorite by a mile, while Kan managed to finish in a tie for fifth. Abe, the prospective prime minister, clocked in at fifteenth, a fact that came out in a sidebar. The reporters respect politicians who prioritize making policy over getting reelected and ideals over expediency, policy.

[jaichind]

Of the 5 independents, 4 are pro-LDP and 1 is pro-DPJ.  One of them is Kunio Hatoyama, brother of the former DPJ PM and co-founder of DPJ.  Kunio has since rejoined LDP after founding the DPJ years ago and broke with the LDP again in 2010.  He ran in his district without an opposing LDP candidate and was the de facto LDP candidate.

[jaichind]

I assume in a day or two.  They did not tabulate the PR vote either.  I merely downloaded the data and tabulated myself for the PR vote.

How long will it take for them to tabulate the FPTP PV? Unless that's already been done.

[jaichind]

Yen/USD at 84 now.  It was 78 back in the summer.  The new Abe regime will push the BOJ to do more QE ergo that will drive the Yen down.  All this QE by everyone, like the USA, will eventually cancel each other out.  Nikki up 1.4%, again with QE the money supply will surge which is good for equity markets on the short run.

[jaichind]

Looking through the results I found out that Makiko Tanaka of the DPJ was defeated in her district and failed to get a vote share high enough to make it into the Diet on PR.  She is the daugher of Kakuei Tanaka who was the powerful political power broker of the LDP and was the PM of Japan.  Kakuei Tanaka was the political mentor of Ozawa in the 1970s and 1980s until Ozawa turned againist Kakuei Tanaka.  Makiko Tanaka was the foreign minister of the Koizumi administration and had a falling out with Koizumi and eventually went over to the DPJ from the LDP.  I was really impressed with her performance as Japan FM back in  2001 and I am saddened to see her defeated.

[jaichind]

Well, Your Party is more Libertarian and JPR more of a populist right.  I personally rather like YR.  On the same topic, I would argue that NKP which is LDP's ally is not that right wing.  It is Japan's version of the Christian Democrats, or NKP would argue.  On the hawkish dovish axis, NKP is quite dovish and it is economically centrist.

I must say all these new parties- the Restoration Party, Your Party, all seem a bit nefarious and right-wing-y

[jaichind]

I am still working on calculating the FPTP votes.  I suspect where was LDP+NKP got 39.46% in PR, they will get around 45% of the FPTP.  Reason is mostly because DPJ, Future Party, and JRP did not run candidates in 300 seats so supporters of those parties would then vote for the person with the best name reconigtion which often is the LDP candidate since LDP has the best farm league of all parties given its domination of prefecture assemblies.  Also this election looks a lot like the 2000 elections where LDP+NKP got 41.7% of the PR vote but won 271 out of 480 seats because of the split in opposition between DPJ, Ozawa's Liberal Party, and SDP.  In that election LDP+NKP got around 45.35% of the vote, I suspect this time it will be similar.

[jaichind]

Not sure what you mean.  If Japan had used a all FPTP, the the scale of the LDP+NKP victory will be even greater.  of course under a pure FPTP system, parties like SDP would have died out years ago.

So maybe FPTP is not the worst thing in the world. Ugh.

[jaichind]

Looks like LDP+NKP FPTP vote was 44.49% and PR was 39.69%, so my guess of LDP-NKP FPTP vote of 45% was pretty accurate.  What is interesting, as I pointed out, is that this election looks a lot like 2000 election, when LDP led block got 45.35% of the FPTP vote and 41.7% of the PR vote.  In 2000, LDP led block got 191 FPTP seats versus 246 this time and got 80 PR seats versus 79 this time.  There were complaints back in 2000 about how the system was not fair and that an unpopular incumbant ruling block that could only get 41.7% support would be able to win an election with a significant majority.  This election is an even more extreme version of 2000 election. 

I will spend time mapping doing my own calculation of the FPTP and PR vote because I am interested in figuring out where the extra 5% the LDP-NKP got in FPTP versus PR came from.

[jaichind]

Another way to compare LDP+NKP performance in 2012.  This is the lowest number of votes the LDP led block go since 1996.  LDP+NKP got 23,740,931 for PR vote and 26,529,190 in FPTP vote in 2012.  In 2000, LDP led block got 24,952,791 for PR vote and 27,611,760 in FPTP vote.  LDP+NKP in 2012 vote underperformed 2000 2003 2005 and 2009.

[jaichind]

That is exactly the point.  LDP-NKP ran candidates in every district as did JCP.  While DPJ, JRP, YP, SDP, and Future Party all only ran candidates in some of the districts.  So anti-LDP voters who did not have their favored party run in their district sometimes vote JCP.  YP and NKP voters tend to vote LDP if no YP or NKP candidates ran in their district but center left voters often vote JCP if they found no good alternative in their district.

It is strange for me that JCP get significantly more FPTP votes than PR votes (even taking into account that it run candidates in nearly every constituency).

[jaichind]

Look over each PR zone and the FPTP the vote and PR vote I am beginning to map out how the PR vote mapped to FPTP votes.  Trends I found were the following

1) LDP+NKP PR voters voted LDP+NKP FPTP.  No surprise here since there was a LDP+NKP candidate in every district.
2) JRP and YP voted for their party FPTP candidates, but where there was none split their vote evenly between LDP+NKP and the center-left parties (DPJ, Future Party, SDP).  In fact since in Osaka there were several districts where JRP and YP endorced the NKP candidate the "free choice" JRP/YP voters that were not able to vote for their own party lean slightly left.
3) Future Party and SDP voted DPJ where they could not vote for their own party, sometimes they voted JCP.
4) DPJ PR voters voted Future and SDP where their candidate was not running but some went to JCP.

One thing that is different in 2012 versus 2009 was that the there was no tactical voting by JCP PR voters.  In 2009 3% out of the 7% voters that voted JCP voted for the center left DPJ alliance in the FPTP vote.  This time around JCP got a surplus FPTP vote mostly based on protest (refusal to vote LDP by center-left voters).  This is part of my point earlier that the real mistake of the DPJ was (asaide from the Ozawa split ito the Future Party) was the split with the SDP.  A broad cente-left alliance of DPJ and SDP (as wwell as Future Party) would give the center-left voter a choice that could win so their vote would not go to the hopeless JCP.  In fact such a alliance would give JCP voters a tactical choice of voting for this llaiance.  This allaince is the basis of a DPJ comeback,especially give the fact that JRP and YP voters are not all wedded into votinh LDP  if left a hard choice of LDP vs DPJ.
 

[jaichind]

Using some simple regression analysis, I found that all things equal, 75% of YP PR voters that did not go to YP FPTP candidates went to LDP+NKP FPTP candidates.  Likewise, only 36% of JRP PR voters that did not go to JRP FPTP candidates when to LDP+NKP FPTP candidates.  This means that when given a choice of LDP+NKP or other center left parties (DPJ, SDP, Future Party) when JRP candidates are not available, JRP voters tend to vote center left over LDP-NKP by 2 to 1.  This leads me to feel that the JRP voter are really made up of anti-LDP but disgruntled former DPJ 2009 voters.  If JRP fails or fall apart, they will likely not vote or go back to DPJ.  There is high policy overlap between YP and neoliberal elements of LDP so that so many of YP voters go with LDP-NKP is really not a surprise.  

[jaichind]

Another thing JRP should be on the lookout for is that the new JRP members of the diet are mostly new and not vetted for scandals.  I am sure the media will flush out some of these skeletons and this will have a negative impact on the JRP image.  I suspect they will not do as well in the 2013 upper house elections. 

[jaichind]

New LDP-NKP starts off strong in post election polling.  This can fall very quickly if economic outlook does not change for the positive soon.  I also suspect a lot of this are DPJ supporters refusing to be polled or saying they support no party after the DPJ was just smashed in the recent elections.

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The support rating for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's new Cabinet stood at 62.0 percent against a disapproval score of 21.8 percent, an opinion poll by Kyodo News showed Thursday.
In the nationwide telephone survey conducted Wednesday and Thursday, support for the Democratic Party of Japan, now an opposition party after its humiliating defeat in the Dec. 16 general election, was 8.6 percent.
The Japan Restoration Party led by former Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara was in second place at 13.0 percent after the Liberal Democratic Party, which earned 34.3 percent.