Japan 2012

[jaichind]

It seems Hashimoto's party is polling ahead of DPJ now.
Of course it really does not have the organization to translate
this into seats as of yet. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
58.3% want lower house dissolution: Kyodo poll

     Over half of Japan's eligible voters believe Prime Minister 
Yoshihiko Noda should dissolve the lower house for a general election
following his censure by the upper house last month, an opinion poll 
by Kyodo News showed Sunday.
     The response of 58.3 percent of those surveyed indicates a 
growing desire among the public to give a verdict on the ruling 
Democratic Party of Japan, which secured passage of legislation to 
double the nation's 5 percent consumption tax rate by 2015.
     The poll also showed that Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto's political
group, which plans to set up a new party for the next general 
election, ranks second after the main opposition Liberal Democratic 
Party in terms of voting intentions for the proportional 
representation block of the lower house election, securing the 
support of 17.6 percent of respondents, up 6.9 percentage points from
the previous survey in August.
     It was the first time in the poll that Hashimoto's group has 
secured greater support than the DPJ. Support for the LDP stood at 
22.2 percent while the DPJ secured 12.4 percent.
     Among other parties, Your Party secured 5.4 percent support, the
New Komeito party 3.9 percent, the Japanese Communist Party 2.6 
percent, People's Life First led by former DPJ chief Ichiro Ozawa 2.1 
percent, and the Social Democratic Party 0.8 percent.
     Public support for Noda's Cabinet stood at 26.3 percent, 
slightly down from 27.9 percent in August, while the disapproval 
rating stood at 59.4 percent, edging up from 59.0 percent, according 
to the nationwide telephone survey conducted Saturday and Sunday that 
received responses from 1,014 eligible voters.
     On Noda's course following the censure motion, 28.4 percent said 
he did not need to step down as the motion was not legally binding, 
while 7.1 percent said the entire Cabinet should resign.
     On the timing of the dissolution of the House of 
Representatives, 30.1 percent said the lower house should be 
dissolved during the extraordinary Diet session in fall, while 22.9 
percent said it should be dissolved during the current parliamentary 
session through Sept. 8.
     The poll also showed 22.0 percent are expecting a double 
election for the lower house and the House of Councillors next summer.
     In the poll, 55.9 percent of respondents said they do not think 
Noda's government handled appropriately an incident last month in 
which Chinese activists landed on one of the Japanese-controlled 
Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, while 39.7 percent said the 
matter was dealt with appropriately.
     Japanese authorities arrested and deported all 14 people on the 
Hong Kong vessel that sailed to the disputed islands

[jaichind]

From Kyodo news. 
---------------------------------------------------------------
 7 lawmakers leaving parties to join Osaka mayor's new party

     Seven lawmakers announced Tuesday that they will leave their 
current parties to join a new political party to be set up soon by 
Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto.
     Among the seven are three from the ruling Democratic Party of 
Japan -- Yorihisa Matsuno, a former deputy chief Cabinet secretary 
and a House of Representatives member, Takashi Ishizeki, also a lower 
house lawmaker, and Masashi Mito, a House of Councillors member.
     Once the three lawmakers leave the ruling party, the DPJ-led 
parliamentary group's strength will stand at 87 in the 242-seat upper 
house -- the same as the LDP-led group's. The ruling bloc's strength 
in the 480-seat lower house would stand at 245, slightly above a 
simple majority.
     Matsuno told reporters that he would revive the idea of 
politicians taking the lead in administration rather than 
bureaucrats, and promote reform of the Diet as a member of the new 
party.
     A senior DPJ lawmaker said the new party leadership, to be 
formed after the party's Sept. 21 presidential election, will decide 
on whether to accept the three lawmakers' letters of resignation.
     The other lawmakers leaving their parties are Kenta Matsunami, a 
lower house member of the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, 
and three upper house members of the smaller opposition Your Party -- 
Shinji Oguma, Hiroshi Ueno and Fumiki Sakurauchi.
     The seven lawmakers agreed to participate in a fundraising event 
that Hashimoto's local political group, called Osaka Ishin no Kai 
(Osaka restoration association), will hold in Osaka on Wednesday.
     It is expected that Hashimoto will declare the establishment of 
a new political party, to be called Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan 
restoration association), at that event.
     Speaking to reporters in Osaka on Tuesday, Hashimoto welcomed 
the seven lawmakers' departure from their parties. Hashimoto is 
expected to head the new political party.

[jaichind]

My understanding is that Ishihara junior is actaully fairly moderate
within the LDP on foreign policy and for sure a lot more moderate
when compared to his father.  If he wins LDP leadership race we
would have a father-son pair leader of parties.  Ishihara senior
at the head of Sunrise Party and Ishihara junior at head of LDP.
After the elections they might even have coalition talks over a
family reunion dinner

-------------------------------------------------------------
Ishihara emerges as leading candidate in LDP leadership race

     Nobuteru Ishihara, secretary general of the main opposition 
Liberal Democratic Party, declared his candidacy on Tuesday for the 
party's presidential election, emerging as a leading contender to 
become Japan's prime minister should his party win a general election 
to be held within a year.
     His declaration came after several days of wrangling in which 
Ishihara, the party's No. 2 man, tried to force his boss, incumbent 
LDP chief Sadakazu Tanigaki, to bow out of the Sept. 26 race.
     Many LDP lawmakers had expressed concern that the party may fail 
to attract wider public support in the next House of Representatives 
election with Tanigaki as leader, despite low support ratings for the 
ruling Democratic Party of Japan, headed by Prime Minister Yoshihiko 
Noda.
     The LDP leadership race has drawn attention as the party could 
form the largest political force in the lower house after the 
upcoming general election, with the leader of the party at that time 
likely to become prime minister.
     The current four-year term of the lower house expires in the 
summer of 2013.
     Backed by a wide range of LDP members -- from junior lawmakers 
to veterans such as former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori -- Ishihara, 
the eldest son of Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, is expected to become 
a principal candidate.
     Ishihara and Tanigaki had met several times last week but had 
failed to unite behind one candidate. On Monday, Tanigaki said he 
will withdraw from the party presidential race.
     So far, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and former 
Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura have already formally declared 
their candidacy for the leadership election, for which official 
campaigning will kick off on Friday.
     Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also plans to announce 
Wednesday that he will enter the race, while acting LDP policy chief 
Yoshimasa Hayashi has continued to make efforts to collect the 20 
signatures necessary to run.
     As for the DPJ presidential election on Sept. 21, four 
candidates, including Noda who is widely expected to be reelected, 
stepped up their efforts to garner the support of party members.
     The three other candidates are former internal affairs minister 
Kazuhiro Haraguchi and former agriculture ministers Michihiko Kano 
and Hirotaka Akamatsu.
     Issues such as Noda's unpopular decision to double the nation's 
5 percent sales tax rate by 2015 and his intention to dissolve the 
lower house "sometime soon" have been in the spotlight in the DPJ 
presidential race.
     Noda has faced criticism from his three rivals for having split 
the party over the tax hike proposal and raising the possibility of 
the DPJ, which swept into office in 2009, losing power in the next 
general election.

[jaichind]

How I see things: Seven MPs agreed to join the new national party led by Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, defecting from their various former parties (including the DPJ and LDP).  Hashimoto formally named the party the Japan Restoration Society.  The two main parties will soon elect leaders ahead of a lower house election that Noda has promised to call "soon".  LDP leader Sadakazu Tanigaki said he will not run for re-election as party leader; former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is contender to succeed him but Nobuteru Ishihara most likely is the frontrunner.  Three current and former ministers (Kazuhiro Haraguchi, Hirotaka Akamatsu and Michihiko Kano) will run to succeed Noda as DPJ leader.  A September 4 voter opinion poll puts Hashimoto at 23.8%, the LDP at 21.7% and the DPJ at 17.4%.  Without a more popular figure at the helm, the Democractic Party of Japan's (DPJ) election prospects remain dim.  Yet with defeat anticipated in any case, party heavyweights will likely demur and let Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda lead the party to disaster, before perhaps running to replace him afterwards.  A right-wing coalition between the conservative main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the newly formed Japan Restoration Society seems the most likely election outcome at
present. Sunrise Party might also get into this coaltion as well.

[jaichind]

I guess that in an election "soon", in the FPTP vote it will LDP-Komeito first, DPJ second, Hashimoto third.  In the PR vote it will be LDP-Komeito first, Hashimoto second, DPJ third.  I still feel that in the FPTP vote, Hashimoto is more likely to hurt DPJ as some anti-LDP votes that would have gone to DPJ would go to Hashimoto.  Of course no party/block will have a majority.  Hashimoto Party's platform does have some very far fetched ideas which would make it hard for LDP-New Homeito to form an alliance with it but LDP's DNA of power at all costs will overcome this.  BTW, this setup would suit DPJ fine as they will benifit from any anger/disillutionment with this new government when it comes, and it will come.

[jaichind]

Note that I refered to Hashimoto's party, Japan Restoration Party, as Hashimoto Party.  There are two reasons for this.  One, there is no offcial English version of the name of this new party.  Second, it was a sarcastic joke of my as a link to the fact that many Germans back in the mid to late 1920s refered to the NASDP as Hitler Partei.

That's a good point. I guess it depends, in terms of my personal preference, on whether I'd rather see some kind of coherent future for the DPJ or an immediate-future government that at all costs does not include the groups led by Governor Misogyny and the Hashists*.

*band name, btw

[jaichind]

It is not even that I am opposed to the Hashimoto's ideas.  Some of them I think are quite good, mostly those about deregulation.  My view is more about how he came to these ideas.  His ideas are mostly self-serving or the lastest political fads.  His ideas on direct election of PM solves nothing and merely makes it easier for him to be PM given his own personal popularity (for now) and his relative weakness in organization is an example of the former. His flip flops on nuclear power is an example of the latter.

One thing I failed to talk about is that 3 members of Your Party defected to Hashimoto Party.  This might be a sign that Your Party might be falling apart.  Oh well.  Your Party I feel have a real vision unlike Hashimoto.  One should also note that most MP defectors to the Hashimoto Party are on the PR list.  This confirms my view that Hashimoto Party is viewed as an outfit that will do will in PR but might lack the nationwide organization to do well in FPTP seats.

If LDP-Komeito and Hashimoto Party comes to power I think that might be the beginning of the end for Hashimoto.  He can on longer play this know-it-all critic and take no responsiblity on what goes wrong.  His party's candidates will mostly be new and unvetted.  Once they are elected there will be all sorts of scandals of a personal and financial nature will come out and the media will be eager to expose them.  He who lives by media might end up dying by media.  In the meantime DPJ will still play a key role in the upper house to block LDP-Komeito and Hashimoto Party and as a result nothing will get done.

[jaichind]

Shintaro Ishihara, 4 term and popular governor of Tokyo once said: "old women who live after they have lost their reproductive function are useless and are committing a sin."
Ishihara Senior used to be in LDP and his son is on the verge of becoming the head of the LDP.  Ishihara Senior also is the godfather behind the radical right wing Sunrise Party.  He created but did not join the Sunrise Pary, but controls it from behind the scenes which fits him fine as he can avioid association with mistakes or gaffes of the party but is de facto head of the party. 

[jaichind]

Speaking of Mishima Yukio, yes, Shintaro Ishihara was very much associated with Mishima Yukio.  Of couse one thing that is interesting about this relationship is that it has become a well known fact that Mishima Yukio is almost certainly gay.   And Ishihara is well known for his anti-homosexual views.  This is another example where he does not seem to square his believes with his associates.  
Some of his extremist views I think also has an element of opportunism.  He is famous for his anti-US and Anti-PRC views (more so anti-PRC.)  In 2005 he advocated boycotting the 2008 Beijing Olympics.  But in 2007-2008 when he was looking to get support for Tokyo to host the 2016 olympics, he toned down his anti-PRC views to the degree that he was invited to the 2008 Beijing Olympics and even praised the 2008 Olympics in terms of the opening ceremony and how it was organized.  Of course once the Tokyo bid fell through he went back to to his more traditional anti-PRC views.  What angers me at a personal level is that in international politics he is anti-PRC based on anti-Communism (plus theories he has that the PRC will invade and take over Japan in 20 years)  and as a result is very much pro-ROC, on paper.  But seems to only favor those ROC politicans that espose Taiwan Indpendence and reject the Chinese identity which exposes the fact his views are really anti-Chinese identity.  And at the same time he hurls insults to the Chinese people overall and Chinese in Japan, even those from Taiwan Province.  I have no problem with anti-Chinese identity but I want him to just come out and say it and not use various invasion theories or anti-communism as a cover.  
As for the Rape of Nanking denial stuff, it is interesting, as a Chinese nationalist I really do not think this is a big deal.  It could be my time in USA has influenced myself with free speech concepts but I feel that if Japan wants it textbooks to avoid or deny these events, it should be free to do so.  It is their call.  In keeping such facts from their own population the only loser here is Japan.  The Chinese committed atrocities just has bad to each other during the KMT-CCP civil wars before and after the Japanese invasion which are often missing from Chinese textbooks on both the Mainland and Taiwan regions.  I personally much rather focused on getting more accurate historical facts in Chinese textbooks about ourselves than harrass the Japanese over the Rape of Nanjing and other Japanese misdeeds.

[jaichind]

I believe Green Wind is a party made up of DPJ and PNP defectors that was created 2 months ago.  The DPJ defectors are as a result of the Noda's push to double consumption tax.
Thinking about this, I think the LDP is better off having the Lower House election next year and the DPJ is better off having the Lower House election this year, which is opposite of what members of each party has indicated. 
The reasoning is the following:  It is very easy to create a negative coalition in the upper house but hard to create a positive coalition in support of a government.  In case of a LDP+New Komeito+Hashimoto Pary government, in the upper house we would LDP+New Komeito+Hashimoto Pary=108.  Throw in Sunrise Party and it would be 111 which would be 11 seats away from a majority.  LDP has always claimed that they can get defectors from other parties to join to form a majority in the upper house to avoid a deadlocked government if they come to power.  But what will be incentives for opposition party members to do this?  It would be to improve their election prospects in the 2013 upper house elections.   But if the LDP+New Komeito plus Hashimoto Party wins a majority as expected in a lower house 2012 election, the 2013 upper house elections is still many months away, plenty of time for this new govnerment to lose the good will it won in the 2012 election.  Knowing this there will be little incentive for upper house opposition MPs to join this block.  If the lower house election takes place in 2013, perhaps at the same time as upper house election, the LDP+New Komeito would do well in both and get the majority it needs with the Hashimoto Party in both chambers. 
So net effect of this, it seems to me, is that LDP should want election as late as possible and DPJ as early as possible.

[jaichind]

People tend to overestimate well...how important Shintaro Ishihara is. He makes a lot of nasty statements but he actually does very little governing. He's more of a public celebrity than an actual politician - since its Inose Naoki who basically does all the actual governing that Ishihara's position would suggest one would do.

That is quite interesting.  I did not know that.  I always had a certain level of respect for Ishihara Senior for his ablity to govern Tokyo.  I always thought that his reelections were mostly based on his technical compotence.  I always thought of him as a Narenda Modi (CM of Indian state of Gujarat) who is a horrible record on communal harmony but has a done a good job as a technical adaministrator and responsible for all sorts of progress in Gujuarat, communal riots notwithstanding.

[jaichind]

It's kind of hilarious that Ishihara, Hashimoto, and Ozawa all have their own terrible personality cult parties.

Of the three I still like Ozawa the most.  I think he has good vision and he is very good at recruiting and building up good politicans that can win elections. 

[jaichind]

Looking at all the serious LDP candidates for LDP leadership,  Ishihara junior is the most moderate of all of them, despite his father's more radical views.  This is funny but one can actually come up with the following campaign solgan and be true:

"For a more moderate foreign policy, vote  Ishihara"

[jaichind]

Wow.  Well, I kind of expected something like this.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Japan’s Noda Hints at Reviewing Pledge for Elections, Asahi Says

     Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko
Noda hinted at reviewing a pledge made to the main opposition
party to dissolve parliament and hold elections “soon,” Asahi
says, citing remarks made by Noda yday on a TBS TV program.
• Noda says conditions have changed; pledge to hold vote was made during talks for opposition parties to stand down on threat of no-confidence and censure motions: Asahi
• Noda suggests holding talks with two main opposition parties again after vote to elect leaders of Noda’s Democratic Party and main opposition Liberal Democratic Party: Asahi
• NOTE: Opposition-dominated upper house passed censure motion against Noda last month

[jaichind]

Yeah.  I hear you.  I guess when I said I felt Ozawa has good vision I was more thinking about his vision of a 2 party system that alternate in power as a route to better policy. 

As for DiaoYuTai/Senkaku incident, I might be overestimating the PRC, but I feel that LDP or DPJ, once in power will have a fairly narrow policy choice on this.  PRC's share of Japanese exports has doubled in the last ten years to 20% with the USA buying 15%.  In a real conflict neither economy benifits but the damage to Japan will be greater.  The PRC has more bargaining chips with Japan than ever before.  I feel that a more dovish policy approach is the only choice left to Japan for the party in power.

Of course I feel the PRC response to this crisis is quite stupid as well.  Since in DiaoYuTai is part of Yilan County of Taiwan Province, the PRC should really let the ROC represent Chinese interests on this with silent support from PRC.

Well, not delegating important tasks to terrible incompetent people is a sometimes rare skill in of itself. Very unfortunately.

The DPJ's reaction to the Senkaku incident baffles me. Consider the upcoming elections and the assets both powers have on the ground, there is very little downside to taking the most hawkish position imaginable. Japan clearly holds most of the cards in this dispute. And worst comes to worst, there's a rally around the flag effect. It's probably old JSPer's holding the DPJ back.

Ozawa has a vision? Is this same Ozawa we're talking about here? The same Ozawa that has jumped from hard-right to hard-left and then to whatever the hell he's doing now.

That being said, if the election were held today, I think I'd be backing Hashimoto. A LDP-Komeito-Hashimoto coalition seems like the possible outcome to me now. I have long since lost faith in the DPJ to actually function no matter the best intentions of some - the Senkaku affair only be one incident in a long string, and I'm not too sure if handing back to the LDP total power would be a good idea And strangely enough, the more I read about Hashimoto, the more I like him.

[jaichind]

See

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120918002929.htm

On PR list the current polling is LDP 31, Hashimoto Party 16, and DPJ 14. If we assume that New Komeito itself should be good for 10% on the PR vote, New Komeito voters do vote for LDP in the FPTP seat, and this poll is indicative of how the FPTP votes would go, then I pretty much feel that LDP-New Komeito will capture a majority on its own given the even split between Hashimoto and DPJ of the anti-LDP vote.

[jaichind]

Wow.  Abe wins LDP contest.  First time in 40 years LDP race has gone into a second round and first time in over 50 years the winner of the first round lost.  Of course this is also the first time a LDP chief is able to come back and win the post after leaving the post.  Not many people had expected this.  What is LDP up to ?  Have they not forgotten the 2007 election disaster and then the Abe on again off again resigniation fiasco ?  They guy had a mental breakdown in office back in 2007.  After the lower house election, I think a LDP-DPJ grand coalation is out with Abe in charge.

[jaichind]

Lastest Kyodo Poll

LDP                        39.4
DPJ                        12.3
Hashimoto Party       10.7

This level of LDP support will obviously fall as the Aso bounce fades.  But if
DPJ and Hashimoto Party support stays even, it will be a LDP landslide when
the election comes.

[jaichind]

Oh. I just checked that Kyodo poll. It was 30.4%, not 39.4%. That makes a lot more sense.

Oops.. Thanks for correcting me
On a seperate note I think DPJ had another defection to YP.  DPJ majority down to 7 seats in the lower house.  There is also the issue of redistricting before an election can go forward due to supreme court ruling and the fact that the bill to issue more debt is outstanding. 

[jaichind]

Japan to hold general election Dec. 16

TOKYO, Nov. 14 Kyodo
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda was set Wednesday to dissolve the lower house for a general election on Dec. 16, a move opinion polls indicate could end his ruling Democratic Party of Japan's three-year hold on power.
Noda made the decision despite simmering opposition within his party as the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party declared Wednesday it would cooperate with conditions Noda set for a general election.
"I think I could dissolve the lower house Friday" if LDP President Shinzo Abe makes promises on cutting the number of
lawmakers in the 480-seat lower house, Noda said during a one-on-one debate with Abe in the chamber.
It was rare for a prime minister to specify the timing of a lower house dissolution in a parliamentary session.
Later Wednesday Abe said in a speech, "We'll fully cooperate
with the prime minister in the proposal to dissolve the lower house Friday."
"We'll do our utmost to try to enact legislation aimed at slashing the number of seats (in the lower house) during next year's ordinary parliamentary session," Abe said.
LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba also told reporters the LDP decided to "cooperate" and "sincerely accept" Noda's proposal on dissolving the lower house.
Noda's decision comes as his government has secured passage of key bills, including a debt-financing bill for the current fiscal
year through March, with cooperation from the LDP and its ally the
New Komeito party.
The 55-year-old premier appears to have judged that he has to fulfill a promise he made to major opposition party leaders in August that he would go to the people "sometime soon" in exchange for their support in passing a bill to double the 5 percent sales tax by 2015. Shrugging off opposition within the ruling party, Noda decided
to call a general election, which must be held by next summer.
As part of electoral system reform, Noda's DPJ envisages cutting the number of lower house seats in single-seat constituencies by five to 295 and slashing the number in proportional representation blocks by 40 to 140.
Noda has vowed to achieve the electoral reform in exchange for imposing an additional burden on the public as his government decided to double the 5 percent sales tax rate by 2015.
The country's top court last year judged that the disparity in the weight of votes between the least and most populous electoral districts for the lower house is so great as to be unconstitutional. Noda's remarks came after the LDP and its ally the New Komeito party agreed earlier Wednesday to submit a no-confidence motion to
the lower house against Noda's Cabinet if he does not dissolve the chamber by the end of this year, lawmakers said.
Under the Constitution, if the lower house passes a
no-confidence motion, the Cabinet has to resign en masse unless the chamber is dissolved within 10 days.
Many DPJ lawmakers, meanwhile, do not want an early election as recent polls show the DPJ, which in 2009 ended over 50 years of
almost continuous rule by the LDP, could lose power in the next election.
According to an opinion poll by Kyodo News earlier this month, the LDP secured 27.7 percent support, higher than 12.1 percent of the DPJ.
Recent polls show that the DPJ, which swept to power in 2009, ending more than 50 years of almost uninterrupted LDP rule, could suffer a crushing defeat in the next election.
As Noda pushed through his prized policy goal of the consumption tax hike, many lawmakers, such as former party president Ichiro
Ozawa, have left the DPJ, placing the party at risk of losing its majority in the more powerful lower house.
Ozawa, who now heads the opposition People's Life First party,
is credited with orchestrating the DPJ's election victory, supporting then president Yukio Hatoyama, the first prime minister under the DPJ-led government.
Hatoyama stepped down as premier in June 2010, after less than nine months in the post, amid criticism over his broken campaign promise to move the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station outside Okinawa Prefecture.
Naoto Kan, Hatoyama's successor, was forced to resign in August last year as criticism grew for his lack of leadership following the devastating March 2011 earthquake-tsunami disaster and the ensuing nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.
Noda, who took office in September last year, succeeding Kan, is expected to campaign in the lower house election with the promise of Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade talks, which the LDP opposes.
The LDP urged Noda to dissolve the lower house by the end of
this year amid speculation the party could emerge as the largest
force in the chamber after the next general election.

[jaichind]

Tokyo Ex-governor Joins New Conservative Party
By MARI YAMAGUCHI
Tokyo (AP) -- Outspoken leaders from Japan's two biggest cities formed a national political party Saturday, seeking to become "a third force" to lure undecided voters and challenge the country's two biggest parties.
Nationalist Shintaro Ishihara, who resigned as Tokyo governor to create his own party this week, said he is scrapping his four-day-old group to join the Japan Restoration Party formed in September by the young and brash mayor of Osaka, Toru Hashimoto.
The announcement comes the day after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda dissolved the lower house of parliament, paving the way elections next month. His ruling party is expected to give way to a weak coalition government divided over how to tackle Japan's myriad problems. The biggest problems are getting a stagnant economy going again and reconstruction after the crippling March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
Elections are set for Dec. 16, with official campaigning starting Dec. 4. If Noda's centrist party loses, the economically sputtering country will get its seventh prime minister in six and a half years.
Japan is going through a political transition with a merry- go-round of prime ministers and the mushrooming fringe parties to challenge the long-dominant Liberal Democrats' return.
"This country is going to fall apart if we don't act now," Ishihara told Saturday's party convention held in Osaka, announcing the merger of his party and Hashimoto's. "I've decided to ignore small differences to join hands on common ground. This will be my last service for the country." Apparently, Ishihara made concessions to Hashimoto's policy supporting phase-out of nuclear energy and participating in the U.S.-led trans-Pacific trade block. The timing of the election could pre-empt moves by more conservative challengers to build enough electoral support.
Ishihara, 80, now heads the Japan Restoration Party, replacing Hashimoto, who now serves No. 2 post.  Hashimoto, 43, has said he will remain mayor of Japan's second-largest city and not run in the election.  On Saturday, he announced backing 47 candidates to run in the polls.
"We'll claw our way through the election battle — not just to win seats, but to change the root of this country," Hashimoto told a televised party convention. "We will change all forces that try to defend the status quo."
The DPJ, in power for three years, has grown unpopular largely because of its handling of the Fukushima nuclear crisis and its plans to double the sales tax.
Noda's most likely successor is LDP head and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He resigned as Japan's leader in 2007 after a year in office due to stomach ailment.
Polls indicate that the conservative, business-friendly LDP will win the most seats in the 480-seat lower house but will fall far short of a majority. That would force it to cobble together a coalition of parties with differing policies and priorities. Many of the newly formed small groups are formed by defectors of Noda's party, and Japan now has at least 15 political parties, half of them with only several members. Although DPJ's rise to power was initially seen as a chance to have stable British-style two-party system in Japan, their troubled rule and infighting have prompted divisions and defections, not necessarily based on policies.
"Now there is no division of conservative, liberal or centrist. There is no telling which two are the main parties," said political commentator Shigetada Kishida on a TV talk show Saturday. "We are now in the process of figuring out which parties should take charge of Japan as an alternative." Political leaders took to the streets Saturday to make their election appeals to voters.
Noda, who visited schools in Tokyo, called the party merger "no-principle coalition" that neglected policies.
"We have mountains of problems to tackle — the economy, energy issues, diplomacy and political reforms.  Do we want to push them forward or backward?  That's what the elections are all about and I will convince voters who should be in charge," Noda told reporters.
In Kumamoto, southern Japan, Abe accused Noda's party of failing to achieve results. "Their existence itself is political vacuum. We should get rid of them, or the vacuum only continues."
Ishihara said his party aims to be "a second force" not third, to be close enough to take power.
Ishihara resigned as Tokyo governor and created the Sunrise Party with several ultra-conservative national lawmakers Tuesday. As governor, Ishihara helped instigate the territorial spat with China by saying Tokyo would buy and develop the disputed East China Sea islands controlled by Japan but claimed by Beijing. The central government bought the islands, apparently to thwart Ishihara's more inflammatory plans, but failing to calm China's anger.

[jaichind]

Everyone seems to think that LDP-New Komeito will win but not capture a majority.  I am pretty sure they will.

[jaichind]

I think so.  Bear in mind, under the 1947-1933 election system in Japan, there is no way the LDP/New Komeito would capture a majority in the upcoming election.  But in a system where 300 of 480 are FPTP and the split of the anti-LDP votes between DPJ, Ozawa Party, JRP and Your Party, the LDP/New Komeito will do very well in FPTP.  What makes it extra powerful is the fact the LDP personal vote of its candidates that have good grassroots organization plus the discplined New Komeito vote (around 8% or so) that is almost all transftered to the LDP candidate.  One can see how in lots of districtes the LDP/New Komneito candidate will capture 35% of the vote and win.

Are they underestimating the "virtues" of FPTP ?

[jaichind]

Asahi Shimbun had two polls recently.  One 11/16 and one 11/18

The 11/16 had
LDP   23
DPJ   16
JRP     6
NKP    3

and 11/18 had
LDP   23
DPJ   15
JRP   16
NKP    4

If I were LDP I will be much happier with 11/18 poll.  LDP-NKP are at 27 and DPJ and JRP split evenly at 15 and 16.  The chances of anti-LDP tactical voting goes down with a virtual tie between DPJ and JRP as opposed to the 11/16 poll where anti-LDP tactical voting should help DPJ to defeat LDP. 

LDP-NKP got around 40% in FPTP in 2009 when they were crushed in a landslide.  This time, if the polls are right,  I figure they are good for 38% or so with DPJ and JRP in the low to mid 20% and remaining votes split between Ozawa's outfit, JCP, YP and various independents (mostly pro-LDP).  Without anti-LDP tactical voting the LDP-NKP should cruse to a big win in the FPTP seats.

[jaichind]

Another "third force" block forms.  This can only be good news for LDP.

The governor of Shiga Prefecture said Tuesday she will establish a new political party with the aim of becoming a major "third force" around a week before the start of official campaigning for the Dec.16 general election.

Yukiko Kada, 62, said at a press conference that she plans to team up with legislators and others who support her policies, including phasing out nuclear power, and to field candidates in the upcoming House of Representatives election.

Kada said it is "possible" for her to work together with former Democratic Party of Japan leader Ichiro Ozawa, who currently heads the People's Life First party, which is against nuclear energy. Her remarks suggest that the new party, named Nippon Mirai no To (Japan Future Party), could become another third force in rivalry