The Great Brazil Topic

[jaichind]

336-126-6-2

[jaichind]

339-127-6-2

3 left

[jaichind]

IMPEACHED

IMPEACHED IMPEACHED IMPEACHED IMPEACHED IMPEACHED IMPEACHED IMPEACHED IMPEACHED IMPEACHED IMPEACHED
(Feels like they won a football game!)

Well, in theory she is not impeached.  We need the Senate to also vote for impeachment.

[jaichind]

342 !! - 127-6-2

[jaichind]

I read on the news wires that fireworks are going off in many parts of Brasilia

[jaichind]

345-127-6-2

Given the fact that PT still has 12 more members of Congress to go.  Dilma will most likely be defeated with about 14 votes to spare. 

[jaichind]

So it will be acting President Temer that will be kicking off the 2016 Olympics it seems.

[jaichind]

Wait, it seems PT only has 60 members in the Congress now.  I recall they won 70 seats in the 2014 elections.  What happen to the other 10?  Did they defect to another party?

[jaichind]

351-127-6-2

[jaichind]

I wonder between now and the Senate also voting for impeachment if Dilma will issue all sorts of orders and place key allies in critical office to "booby trap" the presidency for Temer.  

[jaichind]

356-132-7-2

[jaichind]

362-134-7-2

[jaichind]

When voting started in theory only 504 out of 513 Members of Congress were present.  Looking at the numbers so far a bunch of those 9 must have showed up since we only have 2 absences.

[jaichind]

365-135-7-2   Almost done

[jaichind]

All done

367-137-7-2

So impeachment had 25 votes to spare

[jaichind]

There is talk from PT sources that they will push for a Prez election versus having Temer installed.  It seems to me this is a foolish move.  With  Temer installed PT will always have the talking point of a puppet President without a real mandate.  In another election I am not even sure PT can make it into the second round (unless they run Lula) and certainly will not win the election.  Without Lula running it can see the PT candidate coming in third behind say someone like Neves and Silva.  So after such an election PT will be out of power across the board AND lose the talking point of "illegitimate president."  It could be that at the grassroots PT is falling a part and an election campaign is needed to at least keep PT united even if the election itself is beyond lost.

[jaichind]

Rousseff’s Allied Party PDT to Oust Pro-Impeachment Members says media outlet EBC

[jaichind]

Folha reports that Rousseff Said Mulling New Elections Even If Impeachment fails. 

Estimates of Brazil’s Senators Backing Impeachment by media outlet seems to be
Estado  48 yes  20 no 3 undecided 9 declined answer
Globo    48 yes  21 no 12 undecided or declined to answer
Folha    50 yes  20 no  2 undecided 7 declined to answer

Funny that even a simple poll of 81 people would lead to different results.  One way or another there seems to be the majority for impeachment process to start but not the 54 needed to impeach. 

[jaichind]

Globo senators survey:    49 yes 21 no 11 undecided or declined to answer
Estado senators survey:   50 yes 20 no 3 undecided 7 declined to answer 1 may be on temporary leave

[jaichind]

According to rumors, Dilma will resign on Friday, after a speech to the nation where she'll ask Temer to resign as well as a way to call a general election. By resigning before the Senate opens impeachment proceedings against her, not only she would avoid the shame of being impeached, but she also would avoid the risk of losing her political rights for 8 years - the political sanction for impeached politicians in Brazil. On the downside, she, Lula and her entire Cabinet will be immediately subjected to the jurisdiction of Sergio Moro if she does this.

Well, this is after she announced more public housing units and an average 9 percent increase in the cash transfer program known as Bolsa Familia, even as Brazil faces a record budget deficit.  In addition to increased spending on Bolsa Familia and a 5 percent income tax adjustment, Rousseff offered extended paternity leave for public servants, increased financial help for small-scale farmers, and the creation of a council with representatives from labor groups, businesses and government to look after workers’ rights.

This is a bobby trap for the incoming regime.

[jaichind]

On the same day Dilma is suspended Petrobas came out with Q1 results with losses of BRL1.25 billion versus profit of BRL5.33 billion in Q1 2015.  How ironic.

[jaichind]

Lula will appeal.  If he wins his appeal before the race begins I guess he can still run.