Washington state megathread

[publicunofficial]

Gov:
Inslee (D)

Sen:
Murray (D)

Lt. Gov:
Habib (D)

Secretary of State:
Podlodowski (D)

Attorney General:
Ferguson (D)

Treasurer:
Liias (D)

Auditor:
Sprung (D)

Public Lands:
Franz (D)

Superintendent:
Jones (D)

Insurance Comm:
Kreidler (D)

House:
Kilmer (D)

State Senate:
Van De Wege (D)

State House 1:
Chapman (D)

State House 2:
Tharinger (D)

[publicunofficial]

Anyone have any insight on how Marty McClendon of all people (who has zero political experience) is leading the LtGov race?

He's the only Republican with a visible campaign, and he has a small following from his radio show. He ran in the 6th District last cycle and got whupped, and that is more experience than the other Republicans running for Lt. Governor.

Anyway, tonight was good aside from the stupid Treasurer race. Top 2 is stupid.

Other notes:

-Jayapal looks to be the strong favorite in the 7th, regardless of whether it's McDermott or Walkinshaw she's facing. Sorry Wulfric ((((

-Glad Habib looks to be making to the general as of now. Lt. Gov is a useless position, but it gives Habib the platform to set himself up for a run at a bigger office.

-F**k Tony Ventrella.

[publicunofficial]

Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.

[publicunofficial]

For such a Democratic state at the Presidential and congressional levels, why are Republicans so close to taking full control of the legislature? Compared to Oregon, Washington looks like a toss-up between the two parties -here's the breakdown as of August this year:

WA Senate

Democrats: 24
Republicans: 25

WA House

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 48

https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_State_Legislature

OR Senate

Democrats: 18
Republicans: 12

OR House

Democrats: 35
Republicans: 25

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_State_Legislature

The Oregon legislature is currently a mild Democratic gerrymander, whereas Washington draws it's maps with a bi-partisan commission that tends to benefit Republicans. And while Republicans are able to compete in blue territory (Bellevue, Tacoma suburbs, ect.), Democrats don't hold a single seat that Romney won.

[publicunofficial]

Who do we think replaces Inslee in 2020?

Bob Ferguson and Dow Constantine are generally considered to be the frontrunners.

[publicunofficial]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

[/b]

lol no

[publicunofficial]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

[publicunofficial]

Voted today!

President/Vice-President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine

Senator: Patty Murray
Representative: Derek Kilmer

Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt. Governor: Cyrus Habib
Sec. of State: Tina Podlodowski
Atty. General: Bob Ferguson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Public Lands Commissioner: Hillary Franz
Superintendent: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler

State Senator: Kevin Van De Wege
State Rep., Position 1: Mike Chapman
State Rep., Position 2: Steve Tharinger

Supreme Court:
Mary Yu, Barbara Madsen, Charlie Wiggins, Erik Rohrer

Superior Court:
Brian Coughenour, Christopher Melly

I-1433 (Minimum Wage): Yes
I-1464 (Campaign Finance): Yes
I-1491 (Guns): Yes
I-1501 (Senior abuse): No
I-732 (Carbon Tax): Yes
I-735 (Amendment proposal): Yes

[publicunofficial]

Why did you vote no on I-1501?

Bad law disguised as saving grandma from abuse.

[publicunofficial]

If Jayapal and/or Teachout is elected, the dems need to make it clear that they are not welcome due to their socialist views. Don't put them on any committees period and endorse a high profile primary challenger for 2018. Tell primary voters that if they don't vote for this challenger, that they are a highly dangerous traitor to the party and to the country that should go beg the local police to punish them for their actuon

Wulfric, please shut up forever.

[publicunofficial]

Made a trip into Port Townsend (Jefferson County) today. Still as dark blue as ever from the looks of things. Saw more signs for Hillary Franz than I did Trump.

[publicunofficial]

I voted yesterday:

Most of my ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Brady Walkinshaw (my hardest decision by far)
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson (only R)
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

State Rep: Jessyn Farrell and Gerry Pollett

Supreme Court: Yu, Madsen, Wiggins

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: Yes on Proposition 1 aka ST3.
-----

Also, voting up to 432,735 or 10.2%, but I don't think King County numbers updated?

What made you choose Walkinshaw over Jayapal? I think both are fantastic, and I'm glad I don't have to choose.

[publicunofficial]

Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

Shih's great, but Macri is an amazing leader on the affordable housing/homeless problem front. And while not a man, she is a married gay.

[publicunofficial]

Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

And while not a man, she is a married gay.

I did not know that! The tradition continues, regardless! I think Macri is a great candidate and has some of the best experience in dealing with Seattle's homeless problem. That race reminds me of the city council Johnson/Maddox race, where both candidates are amazing, but in the end, there's a clear urbanist choice (Johnson and Shih). I would LOVE if Maddox challenged Sawant though, not that I hate her or anything, but she's surprisingly anti-density and pro-single-family-home.

What are Marci's stances in regards to Seattle's recent homeless debates? If she's an advocate with some knowledge on the matter I imagine she has a better position than SCC's current "stick them in parks!" plan but I've learned long ago that the housing debate in Seattle frequently misses the forest for the trees, with someone like Sawant being a perfect example.

This is the most I can find:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[publicunofficial]

Sounds like Shih is more on my wavelength but they are both remarkably clear-eyed about the issue. Macri I'm sure will be a fine legislator

Part of Macri's background was setting up housing for the homeless that let tenants drink on the premises. It was unpopular, but Macri fought for it because she believed that large amounts of the homeless population would chose booze over housing if they were forced to, and she didn't want to turn them away.

Stuff like that, fighting for unpopular measures for the greater good, really impresses me.

[publicunofficial]

I voted Erin Jones in the primary, but some of her controversies on gay rights scared me towards Reykdal.

[publicunofficial]

My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes - This was one of my toughest choices.
I-735: Yes
R-8210: Approved
King County Charter Amendments 1 and 2: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal - Last minute decision, I'd be happy with either.
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

Justice Position 1: Mary Yu
Justice Position 5: Barbara Madsen
Justice Position 6: Charlie Wiggins
Judge Position 14: Nicole Gaines Phelps
Judge Position 26: David Keenan
Judge Position 31: Helen Halpert
Judge Position 44: Cathy Moore
Judge Position 52: Anthony Gipe
Judge Position 53: Marianne Spearman

Seattle I-124: Yes
Seattle Prop 1: Yes

Can I ask why Duane Davidson rather than the other GOPer?

Can't speak for Boko, but Davidson seems to have less of a partisan agenda than Waite, who wants to get rid of the capital gains tax. Davidson seems like he'll focus on doing his job rather than spouting GOP talking points.

[publicunofficial]

State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/

So a special election will occur in the following year with the GOP being allowed to appoint a successor until then?

Correct. Sure to be a competitive race.

[publicunofficial]

My home of Clallam County is currently one of the closest margins in the nation. Trump leads by 8 votes, 13,741 to 13,733.

I certainly would have never guessed it to vote to the left of Grays Harbor county. Doesn't seem to have dragged down local Democrats at all however. Derek Kilmer got 62% of the vote in CD-06, and all 3 Democrats in LD-24 won by similar margins as well.
 

Also, anyone notice Patty Murray put up amazing numbers in Eastern WA? She won Whitman, Spokane, and most surprisingly Walla Walla counties.

[publicunofficial]

Another close result: In Grays Harbor, Pat McCarthy leads Bob Miloscia by ONE vote. 11,399 to 11,398

[publicunofficial]

Check out the urban/suburban divide on ST3.

[publicunofficial]

If Jaime Beutler wasn't ultra safe before, she certainly is going forward

[publicunofficial]

Clark County just unexpectedly flipped back to Clinton.

Does anyone have any inclination why Whitman County's turnout is down over 50% from 2012? It's not like the population's declined.

Pullman turnout looks absolutely terrible, which is a big part of why the county is even close right now.  But above that, their Auditor's department is also terrible.  They report as only 72% counted.

If Pullman turnout is low, why did Whitman go blue this year after being a Romney county?

[publicunofficial]

Dino Rossi could be appointed to Andy Hill's vacant Senate Seat.

Could Rossi actually hold the seat in the special election for Republicans?
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/dino-rossi-says-hes-willing-to-temporarily-replace-hill-in-state-senate/

A few years ago Rossi was appointed to fill a Senate vacancy in a different district. He didn't run for the open seat then; don't see why he would now in a district that would be even harder to hold. I think he's done with politics for the most part.

[publicunofficial]

I think the only person the Rs could run and win with is King County Council member Kathy Lambert. I have no idea if she would want to, considering she left the state house for her current position.

Probably just go with a moderate businessman and just hope Eastsiders are still willing to give Republicans a chance.