Washington state megathread

[publicunofficial]

RIP Mike Lowry

[publicunofficial]

Dave Reichert's non-committal on the AHCA is front-page news on the Seattle Times today. They've consistently endorsed him for re-election in years prior.

[publicunofficial]

Reposting this here:

WA-05: Washington State University-Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown is resigning from her post, and says she's weighing a bid against Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Brown was previously a state legislator for 20 years, serving as Senate Majority Leader from '05 to '13.

[publicunofficial]

RIP Ed Murray

I think I might like Hasegawa over McGinn. Hard to say, if Walkinshaw gets in that'd make things harder.

Hasegawa might have a slight disadvantage;the only part of Seattle in his district is Chapel Hill.

[publicunofficial]

Yeah I forgot about Hasegawa's opposition to light rail. Rules him out for me.

[publicunofficial]

Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

[publicunofficial]

The Durkin article also mentions the possibility of Rep. Jessyn Farrell getting in. Farrell was a major supporter of Walkinshaw's congressional run.

Currently my preferences (Like KS I live nowhere near Seattle):

1) McGinn
2) Oliver
3) Durkin

Hasegawa would be #1 if not for his Sound Transit stance. Durkin seems competent but her attorney background might make her a bit too law-and-ordery for my tastes.

Just realized there's a special in 2017 in the 31st LD. Is there any chance of Democrats flipping this seat? Do they even have a candidate yet?

I doubt it. 31st is rough territory. Half of Auburn, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, and all the rural area in between. It also slid from a narrow Obama '12 seat to one Trump carried, even as he was getting destroyed in King County.

Side note: I hate the way this district is drawn, there's no reason to have two State Senators from Auburn.

[publicunofficial]

The same article that mentioned Farrell also mentioned Sen. David Frockt, who I think would excite no one and have zero constituency.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map

The one good thing that could come about if Hasegawa was elected Mayor is that the commission might have less of an impetus for drawing the ugly forced majority-minority 11th. Dismantling that would make for a much cleaner looking King county, at least.

[publicunofficial]

The same article that mentioned Farrell also mentioned Sen. David Frockt, who I think would excite no one and have zero constituency.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map

The one good thing that could come about if Hasegawa was elected Mayor is that the commission might have less of an impetus for drawing the ugly forced majority-minority 11th. Dismantling that would make for a much cleaner looking King county, at least.

Who?

Anyways, they should just refuse to give the commission the home addresses of incumbents. King Co's map is hideous but there's some stinkers in EWA and I'm still not sure what they were thinking with that horseshoe thing down in Clark

Except the legislature chooses who is on the commission so they pick people who will fight for their interests.

While we're listing complaints, the 9th, 2nd, and 1st are all horror shows.

[publicunofficial]

Some write-ups on Durkin have been popping up, and with them some red flags.

Namely:
-Defended Uber and McDonalds in legal battles
-Has a history of being anti-pot.
-Somewhat shady history of prosecuting protesters.

[publicunofficial]

Unsurprising news is still news:

Kshama Sawant has endorsed Oliver for Mayor, Grant for City Council.


Farrell meanwhile has gotten the endorsements of State Rep. Cindy Ryu, State Rep. Gerry Pollet, and Public Lands Commissioner Hillary Franz. Three of my favorite Democrats in the state!

[publicunofficial]

I believe the 9th is as goofy as it is in order to be an MM district. Laudable, but difficult to draw well in a state as white as Washington. An all-Seattle 7th would be ideal, I agree

Oh, I know. I think it's ridiculous. Especially since Adam Smith is only in his early 50s (!!) and will likely be there for another 15+ years.

I believe it was Slade Gordon that masterminded the 9th, thus securing the 8th for Reichert. Then they masqueraded the district as a "minority-majority" to both the other Ds/independents on the redistricting council and the public at large.

I'm hoping a Dem can defeat Reichert before 2022 so the commission will be more likely to make the 8th more D-leaning.

[publicunofficial]

I believe the 9th is as goofy as it is in order to be an MM district. Laudable, but difficult to draw well in a state as white as Washington. An all-Seattle 7th would be ideal, I agree

Oh, I know. I think it's ridiculous. Especially since Adam Smith is only in his early 50s (!!) and will likely be there for another 15+ years.

I believe it was Slade Gorton that masterminded the 9th, thus securing the 8th for Reichert. Then they masqueraded the district as a "minority-majority" to both the other Ds/independents on the redistricting council and the public at large.

Rick Larsen isn't that old and has been around forever too. Those two will be the Scoop-Mag combo of the House (a man can dare to dream)

I could see Smith climbing the leadership ranks if one of Hoyer, Pelosi, and/or Clyburn retire. Larsen meanwhile is the definition of a backbencher.

[publicunofficial]

I don't know enough about current municipal boundaries to comment.


In (sad) news: Ben Stuckart is dropping out of WA-05 due to family health concerns.

[publicunofficial]

It'll be interesting to see how they stitch together East King, that's for sure.

Some news: apparently (per DKE) Stuckart is out against McMorris Rodgers. Apparently health concerns in family, though the potential entrance of Lisa Brown and a clear run at Spokane Mayor in '19 probably made the choice much easier. He's young and has time to wait

If Stuckart dropping out is followed by Brown getting in immediately after, I'd be very very excited.

[publicunofficial]

On the Seattle Mayor topic: It seems like Murray's establishment support has fractured somewhat between Durkan and Farrell. The more liberal side of the establishment (including recently Cyrus Habib, Rob Johnson, & Nicole Macri) is backing Farrell while Durkan is getting support from the Chamber of Commerce types.

Bodes well for the hopeful scenario of a McGinn/Farrell run-off.

[publicunofficial]

Out of boredom, I drew up alternative to Washington's current State Senate districts. Figure I'd ask for feedback from other Washington posters:









Districts with Obama 2008 and Senate 2010 numbers:


SD-01 (Bothell) - 62/36 Obama, 54/45 Murray Safe D
SD-02 (Fort Lewis-Eatonville) - 48/49 McCain, 44/56 Rossi Safe R
SD-03: (Spokane) - 54/43 Obama, 50/49 Murray Lean D
SD-04 (Spokane Valley) - 42/54 McCain, 38/61 Rossi Safe R
SD-05 (Issaquah-Sammamish) - 59/39 Obama, 50/50 Murray (4 vote difference) Likely D
SD-06 (West Spokane/Cheney) - 54/43 Obama, 50/50 Murray (9 vote difference) Toss-Up/Lean D
SD-07 (Okanogan Highlands) - 40/57 McCain, 35/64 Rossi Safe R
SD-08 (Richland-Kennewick) - 36/61 McCain, 36/63 Rossi Safe R
SD-09 (Walla Walla-Pullman) - 43/54 McCain, 39/61 Rossi Safe R
SD-10 (Anacortes-Whidbey Island)  55/42 Obama, 52/47 Murray Lean/Likely D
SD-11 (Burien-Tukwila) - 69/29 Obama, 65/34 Murray Safe D
SD-12 (Wenatchee-Ellensburg) - 43/55 McCain, 36/63 Rossi Safe R
SD-13 (Moses Lake-Ephrata) - 36/61 McCain, 30/69 Rossi Safe R
SD-14 (Yakima-Goldendale) - 43/54 McCain, 36/63 Rossi Safe R
SD-15 (Yakima-Sunnyside) - 47/51 McCain, 40/59 Rossi Likely/Safe R
SD-16 (Pasco-Ritzville) - 35/62 McCain, 33/66 Rossi Safe R
SD-17 (Vancouver-Camas) - 53/45 Obama, 46/53 Rossi Toss-Up
SD-18 (Battle Ground-Brush Prairie) - 45/52 McCain, 39/60 Rossi Safe R
SD-19 (Longview-South Bend) - 53/43 Obama, 47/52 Rossi Toss-Up
SD-20 (Centralia-Tenino) - 45/52 McCain, 40/59 Rossi Safe R
SD-21 (Everett) - 62/35 Obama, 56/43 Murray Safe D
SD-22 (Olympia) - 65/33 Obama, 61/38 Murray Safe D
SD-23 (Bainbridge Island-Bremerton) - 57/40 Obama, 53/46 Murray Safe D
SD-24 (Port Angeles-Port Townsend) - 56/41 Obama, 52/47 Murray Likely D
SD-25 (Puyallup-Orting) - 50/47 Obama, 44/55 Rossi Likely R
SD-26 (Port Orchard-Gig Harbor) - 49/48 Obama, 45/55 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-27 (Tacoma) - 66/31 Obama, 61/38 Murray Safe D
SD-28 (University Place-Lakewood) - 56/41 Obama, 52/47 Murray Toss-Up/Lean D
SD-29 (Tacoma-Parkland) - 61/36 Obama, 56/43 Murray Safe D
SD-30 (Federal Way) - 60/38 Obama, 54/45 Murray Likely D
SD-31 (Enumclaw-North Bend) - 50/47 Obama, 43/56 Rossi Likely R
SD-32 (Edmonds-Lynwood) - 65/33 Obama, 59/40 Murray Safe D
SD-33 (Kent) - 60/38 Obama, 53/46 Murray Safe D
SD-34 (West Seattle-Vashon) - 80/17 Obama, 77/22 Murray Safe D
SD-35 (Aberdeen-Shelton) - 55/42 Obama, 50/49 Murray Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-36 (West Seattle) - 84/14 Obama, 81/18 Murray Safe D
SD-37 (Southwest Seattle) - 87/10 Obama, 86/13 Murray Safe D
SD-38 (Marysville-Camano Island) - 52/45 Obama, 46/53 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-39 (Monroe-Granite Falls) - 53/44 Obama, 45/54 Rossi Likely R
SD-40 (Bellingham-Ferndale) - 66/31 Obama, 61/38 Murray Safe D
SD-41 (Renton-Newcastle) - 64/33 Obama, 58/41 Murray Safe D
SD-42 (Lynden-Mount Vernon) - 46/51 McCain, 40/59 Rossi Safe R
SD-43 (Seattle) - 87/11 Obama, 84/15 Murray Safe D
SD-44 (Lake Stevens-Mill Creek) - 57/40 Obama, 49/50 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean D
SD-45 (Kirkland-Redmond) - 65/33 Obama, 57/42 Murray Likely D
SD-46 (Shoreline-North Seattle) - 77/21 Obama, 74/25 Murray Safe D
SD-47 (Auburn-Bonney Lake) 53/45 Obama, 47/52 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-48 (Bellevue-Mercer Island) - 63/34 Obama, 56/44 Murray Likely D
SD-49 (Vancouver)  - 58/39 Obama, 53/46 Rossi Safe D

[publicunofficial]

New poll out for the mayoral race.



Farrell at 6%? WTF?

Got in late, and I imagine she's in a situation where she's everyone's #2 choice.

[publicunofficial]

There's also another (landline only!) poll being circulated done by an outfit called Wilson Strategies (Never heard of them). They appear to be backing or backed by Durkan judging by their website.

Link

Durkan - 30.1%
Hasegawa - 8.8%
McGinn - 6.3%
Moon - 4%
Oliver - 3.4%
Farrell - 2.1%

Looks very junk. No way Hasegawa is in second place.

[publicunofficial]

I like your E WA districts, FWIW. Hard to swing 6 anymore D without making 3 more vulnerable, like what happened here. I like using I-90 as a divide, but Spokane gets super conservative super suddenly as you go north. Both would be swing districts IMO

Eastern WA very easy to make nice looking districts, but the current map is a mess of making sure every incumbent is comfortable. I could have even drawn a competitive 14th that went 53/47 Obama by swapping some areas around, but I decided against it in favor of a much less competitive 15th.


Also Pierce county is probably the hardest county to make nice-looking districts for, for congressional maps or otherwise. It's population is spread out in weird ways, it has the Gig Harbor/Artondale portion that should've been put in Kitsap county, and it's voting precincts are all weirdly shaped too, for some reason.

[publicunofficial]

I get what you're trying to do with your Yakima Hispanic district, but it makes for a terrible Clark-Columbia-Skamania-northern Yakima suburbs seat (though it looks nice visually). On the topic of aesthetics, I think it would be better to have Hanford given over to the lime green district, even it totally surrounds the Richland/Kennewick one.

I don't know where else I would put Skamania/Klickitat if not with the Yakima area. FWIW this was the other way I drew it:



14th (Brown) is majority-minority. 47% white, 42.8% hispanic, 6.1% Native American. 53-44 Obama, 46-53 Rossi.  15th (Orange) is only 36% hispanic, 38-60 McCain, 31-68 Rossi.

EDIT: Lol had to re-upload the image because the photobucket URL had the s-word in it and the forum filter broke it.

[publicunofficial]

I don't want to talk about the Seattle mayor race: THIS IS THE ONLY ISSUE WE NEED TO DISCUSS:

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Joe Fain is a disgusting weirdo.

[publicunofficial]

Still undecided in the Mayor race, but I'm officially rooting for Grant in the council race.

I know King Sweden and others have voiced their distaste for him, but what he's done with the democracy voucher program has really impressed me and the appeal of a politician who is in no way beholden to anyone but the people he represents is very appealing to me. I like a lot of his policies as well, he's been very involved with the Seattle DSA.

The biggest criticism of him I've seen is that he's an abrasive left-wing dickhead, but as an abrasive left-wing dickhead myself I see no problem with that.

[publicunofficial]

Still undecided in the Mayor race, but I'm officially rooting for Grant in the council race.

I know King Sweden and others have voiced their distaste for him, but what he's done with the democracy voucher program has really impressed me and the appeal of a politician who is in no way beholden to anyone but the people he represents is very appealing to me. I like a lot of his policies as well, he's been very involved with the Seattle DSA.

The biggest criticism of him I've seen is that he's an abrasive left-wing dickhead, but as an abrasive left-wing dickhead myself I see no problem with that.

Nothing wrong with being left wing and abrasive on a City Council in a city like Seattle provided that you're also good on urban issues, which Grant has left me unconvinced that he is (Mike McGinn remains the platonic ideal of this intersect, IMO).

FWIW from what I've seen you'd fit that mold, too, so please run for city council, preferably against Sawant

Your chances are better than mine, I don't even live in King.

[publicunofficial]

The Seattle Times endorses *barf* Sara Nelson for City Council 8.

Key excerpt:

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Because being beholden to the Chamber of Commerce and moneyed interests is soooooooo much better for the city than being beholden to an ideology.