Candidate quality and incumbency advantage are overrated. There is no way Dean Heller can win if the Democrats hold states like MO or WV. Even Shelley Berkley would beat him in such a scenario.
It definitely helps, even if marginally. You're willing to tell me that if LA, NC, AK, or AR had been open seat races in 2014, they wouldn't have been even bigger blowouts?
Oh, most red state Democrats definitely have an incumbency advantage, but incumbent Republican Senators clearly haven't. It's the main reason why the GOP advantage in the Senate exists only on paper.
I was talking more about incumbent Republicans like Heller, who are quite overrated. If 2018 is a Democratic landslide year (which it will be if they hold most or all of their red state seats), Republicans will lose one or two of NV/AZ/UT/TX. I'm pretty sure about that.
I agree with you about incumbency being overrated, but candidate quality is still a must. Can't beat something with nothing.
