Potenial 2018 Rematches?

[publicunofficial]

Trying to put together some early House race ratings for 2018, and came to the question of which Dem recruits should try again in 2018. Very few of them ended up even getting close to winning, but it's not 100% clear how much that could be attributed to the quality of their campaigns, or just the bad environment for Democrats this year. Republican candidates can be mentioned here too.


My guesses:


Zephyr Teachout (NY-19) - Actually ran ahead of Hillary, but Trump put up massive numbers in upstate NY.

Brad Ashford (NE-02) - Only Dem incumbent that lost this year.

Doug Applegate (CA-49) - Votes are still being counted, but it Applegate looks to have lost by a very thin margin. Could run again this year, though the newfound competitiveness of this district could draw a stronger challenger in the Dem primary.

Pete Gallego (TX-23) - Very surprised he lost, but he's still probably the strongest Dem recruit in this must-win seat.

Angie Craig (MN-02) - Another surprising close loss. Craig might do better in a Dem-leaning midterm.


Annette Tadeo (FL-26) - Lost in the primary to Joe Garcia. Might be worth another shot, but seems to have a habit of losing elections.

Crescent Hardy (NV-04) - If Democrats continue to have midterm turnout problems in Nevada, Hardy could have a good shot at returning to the House.

Teri Bonoff (MN-03) - Still probably the best recruit for this seat.


Candidates who SHOULDN'T try again:

Stewart Mills (MN-08)
Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Randy Perkins (FL-18)
Paul Babeau (AZ-01)
Matt Heinz (AZ-02)
Monica Vernon (IA-01)
Emilio Huerta (CA-21)
Danny Tarkanian (NV-03)

[publicunofficial]

Democrats should be terrified at the thin margins their strong candidates won by in most Minnesota districts and scared that Trump won Iowa's lone district represented by a democrat, a democrat who won by less than Rod Blum won his district. Dave Loebsack.

That's not the topic of this thread but thank you for your contribution

[publicunofficial]

Not a "rematch" per se but is there any chance Joe Heck could go for his old seat in 2018?

Perhaps. But it's never fun to come slinking back to your old seat after getting beat for your promotion. Very few ever do it (Steve Pearce in 2010 is the first to come to mind).

If we mention Heck, then I should also say it might be possible for Patrick Murphy in FL-18 as well, considering how popular he was in that seat.

Hell, maybe even bring Bruce Braley back to run in IA-01. That 2014 loss is looking less and less like Braley's fault, in hindsight.

[publicunofficial]

Not a "rematch" per se but is there any chance Joe Heck could go for his old seat in 2018?

Perhaps. But it's never fun to come slinking back to your old seat after getting beat for your promotion. Very few ever do it (Steve Pearce in 2010 is the first to come to mind).

If we mention Heck, then I should also say it might be possible for Patrick Murphy in FL-18 as well, considering how popular he was in that seat.

Hell, maybe even bring Bruce Braley back to run in IA-01. That 2014 loss is looking less and less like Braley's fault, in hindsight.

Heck running for his seat again would probably would require Rosen trying to go for the big promotion - which I doubt will be the case. Brian Mast doesn't strike me as an Allan West type, so Murphy will have a tough time with Mast being the incumbent. And lol, Braley officially killed any chance he had in Iowa politics with the embarrassment of a campaign he ran in 2014.

Brian Mast actually IS somewhat of an Allen West type. He's more of a legit war hero (Whereas West spent his time in service beating Iraqi policemen), but he's a lock to join the Freedom Caucus.

[publicunofficial]

Matt Heinz was also a very bad fundraiser.