I'd wait for more IL polls to say with certainty that Kirk is doomed (Duckworth's most recent internal has her up 7, while Kirk's internal has him up 2). And I'm aware of the PA polls, but Katie McGinty is still a trash tier candidate and if there's anyone who can lose this race, it's gotta be her.
But yeah, if the Democrats win NV, IN, IL, NH and WI, it will be enough if Clinton wins the presidential race. Of course a Republican takeover of the Senate in 2018 would be guaranteed in that case.
"Whenever Democrats look favored in a race, just reply "Muh 2018"