Is Darrell Issa in trouble?

[publicunofficial]

Even if you argue the primary means nothing for the general, it'll make Dem donors pay attention to the race.

Doug Applegate had previously been talked about as the kind of strong candidate who could make the most of a D wave helping him out. And Issa certainly has more attack ad fodder than say Royce, Denham, or Valadao.

[publicunofficial]

I think this may just be an oddity of low Republican turnout and an unusually strong Democratic opponent. He may make Issa sweat a little, but shouldn't be a problem winning.

Worth noting that the other OC Republicans didn't have as much trouble.

Ed Royce has a decent opponent and a similar PVI district, and he crushed the primary with 60%+.

[publicunofficial]

I think this is a legit Dem opportunity and there will be a lot of surprise Dem CD flips in the Southwest even in a narrow Clinton win.  CA-21, CA-25, CA-10, CA-49, NV-04, NV-03, UT-04, AZ-02, CO-06, CO-03, and TX-23 should all be top targets.  NM-02 could be interesting as well, but I think they got stuck with a some dude candidate.

The Dem recruits in AZ-02 have been weak fundraisers so far, and McSally seems like the type who could lock that seat down fairly quickly.