To me, the problems with the "Keystone would save the Democrats" issue are thusly:
1) If I'm the type of voter who is dead-set PASSIONATE about Keystone XL, I'm probably voting Republican anyway.
2) If I support Keystone XL, but not insanely so, then I have the choice between A) A Democrat who supports Keystone XL, but will also support the President who will veto it and the Majority Leader who doesn't support it, and B) A Republican who supports Keystone XL, and will help bring a GOP Majority that will make Keystone XL an easy pass through Congress.
Well, I don't think anyone thinks it would have saved her, let alone saved Democrats in general. But it could've helped at the margins.
Yeah but in the end who really cares about the margins? A loss is a loss. The only real difference between a 5 point loss and a 20 point loss is how seriously people take you the next time you run for office.