Andrew Cuomo/Tim Kaine vs Jeb Bush/Rand Paul

[CountryClassSF]

I believe Jeb Bush and Rand Paul would win in this scenario -- 285 to 253

Key assumptions:
-Obama fatigue

-Lower turnout amongst the blacks

-Lower turnout amongst the Latinos with higher GOP percentage

-Voter ID laws taking affect preventing voter fraud

-High GOP turnout/Paul libertarian types unifying

-Cuomo's gun views hurt him in the midwest and even in Kaine's Virginia

-Nader-like 3rd party gathers 4-5% of the vote nationally causing some states to tilt

[CountryClassSF]

To be completely honest if Jeb didn't have the last name Bush I would predict a win for him.

Do you really think Jeb would lose his home state even if under extreme high Democrat turnout like in 2012 Romney and Obama were less than a point apart?

[CountryClassSF]

Bush would have the edge, but it would be a close election.

Tim Kaine's a solid running mate. He has a good resume, experience with the media and helps in a key swing state. It would be a two white guys ticket against a two white guys ticket. That might leave openings for third-party tickets to get enough of the vote to make a difference, although Jeb should appeal to his brother's socially conservative base, while Rand should get the libertarians.

Just as George W Bush was happy running against the son of a senator, Jeb would be happy running against the son of a governor/ DNC keynote speaker.

Meh. I can't understand the appeal of Tim Kaine.  The guy used to be a social conservative  -- became chairman of the DNC for supporting Hussein over Hillary, gave a terrible SOTU response to Bush in 05.  I'll never get that.

I'd actually be OK with a Bush/Paul ticket. A good balance of Tea Party & compassionate conservatism. The base and the moderates would turn out for it