Luxembourg 2013

[Sir John Johns]

Found some polls from last month, before the spying affair and the resignation of Juncker (source:http://www.lessentiel.lu/fr/news/luxembourg/story/13417540). No data at national level. The polls were commissioned by newspaper Tagesblatt. I can't find which is the survey company.

North
CSV 33.8% (-5.8 )
DP 23.3% (+5.1)
LSAP 15.5% (-1.9)
Déi Gréng 12.5% (+1.7)
ADR 10.5% (+0.2)
Déi Lénk 3.2% (+1.2)

Center
CSV 33.8% (-4.8 )
DP 22.9% (+3.5)
LSAP 15.5% (-2.3)
Déi Gréng 15.4% (+2.2)
ADR 5.6% (-0.7)
Déi Lénk 5.6% (+2.1)

East
CSV 36.9% (-4.6)
Déi Gréng 18.2% (+4)
DP 17.9% (+2.5)
LSAP 12.9% (-3.3)
ADR 10% (+0.5)
Déi Lénk 4% (+1.7)

South
CSV 32.2% (-3.4)
LSAP 23.2% (-4.9)
Déi Gréng 13.8% (+3.6)
DP 12.6% (+2.5)
Déi Lénk 8.2% (+4.1)
ADR 6.4% (-1.5)

Both CSV and LSAP lost ground, probably because of voters' fatigue. It should be noted however that LSAP nominated as its top candidate Étienne Schneider, the young economy minister who enjoyed a recent rise of popularity in polls. For its part, the CSV doesn't have a substitute to Juncker as Juncker's designated successor, Luc Frieden, is now accused of obtructing justice in the trial of 1980s terror bombings possibly related to Operation Gladio (notably, Luxembourg intelligence services apparently hired a private detective to investigate the supposed paedophilia of the state prosecutor dealing with the case).

While DP, The Left, and the Greens benefited from the decline of the traditional parties, ADR stagnating. I have made some little research, and the party doesn't seem to totally fit into the conservative label generally attributed to it. ADR has had a tough year. In December, one deputy (Jacques-Yves Henckes, a veteran member of the party) left the party and another, Jean Colombera (a holistic physician), threatened to do so if the president Fernand Kartheiser didn't resign.

Both opposed the shift to the right of the ADR under the leadership of Kartheiser. Henckes accused Kartheiser of providing an ultraconservative and  religious orientation to the party (Kartheiser opposed the relaxation of the abortion laws). For his part, Colombera defines himself as a left-minded politician, is a supporter of same-sex marriage and, even better, was indicted for having illegaly prescribed medical marijuana. Kartheiser was also criticized for being a government employee (he worked in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I'm going to come to that) which contradicted the party's historical opposition to civil service.

Then Kartheiser resigned as president of the party, but Colombera left anyway because other members of ADR insulted him. After an unsuccessful attempt to join the Greens, Colombera founded a new party whose platform is full of platitudes despite being, according to Colombera, inspired by the principles of holistic medicine.

In April, the vice president of the ADR, Roy Reding, was under investigation in relation to the fraudulent sale of Hooters franchise in Germany.

And finally, last month, it was revealed that Kartheiser was a double agent during the Cold War. Even if Kartheiser claimed he misled the Russians, being a former spy will probably not help him to be reelected.

Who said Luxembourg is a boring country ?

[Sir John Johns]

PolitMonitor about upcoming elections

Preferred coalition

CSV-LSAP 29%
LSAP-DP-Déi Gréng 22%
CSV-DP 16%
CSV-Déi Gréng 7%
other 10%
no opinion 16%

Opinion about a LSAP-DP-Déi Gréng coalition:
Good 40%
Bad 51%
no opinion 9%

Preferred prime minister:
Jean-Claude Junker (CSV) 47%
Xavier Bettel (DP) 19%
Étienne Schneider (LSAP) 14%
François Bausch (Déi Gréng) 3%
Charles Goerens (DP) 1%
Luc Frieden (CSV) 1%
no answer 10%

Results in 2009 are given in the joint document, but 18% are missing.

Jean-Claude Juncker (CSV): 68%
Jean Asselborn (LSAP) 8%
Claude Meisch (DP) 6%
Luc Frieden (CSV) 4%
François Bausch (Déi Gréng) 2%

Preferred and least preferred parties

Surveyed were given six votes, three to rank the parties they would like to see stronger after the elections and three to rank the parties they would like to see weaker.

Parties you want stronger (1st vote, then addition of the three votes)
CSV 30% (43%)
DP 19% (50%)
LSAP 19% (44%)
Déi Gréng 16% (50%)
Déi Lénk 4% (19%)
ADR 3% (10%)
Piratepartei 3% (10%)
KPL 1% (4%)
PID 1% (3%)

Parties you want weaker:

CSV 32% (41%)
ADR 15% (41%)
LSAP 12% (26%)
KPL 9% (29%)
Déi Gréng 7% (20%)
Piratepartei 6% (23%)
DP 6% (16%)
PID 3% (16%)
Déi Lénk 2% (18%)

PolitMonitor had also previously polled about voters' confidences in the parties and institutions. (variations compared to April 2013)

Government 51% (-4)
Opposition 44% (+6)
Trade Unions 46% (+3)
Employers 37% (-5)
Political parties 45% (+5)

Most-trusted party (the article doesn't give all variations compared to April 2013)
CSV: 33% (+1)
LSAP: 15% (+3)
DP: 15% (+1)
Déi Gréng 10%
Déi Lénk 4%
ADR 1%
KPL 1%
Piratepartei 1%
none 20% (-6)

Some statistics on each parties' candidates

Average age
KPL: 50
ADR: 48
CSV: 47
Déi Gréng: 47
LSAP: 45
DP: 44
PID: 41
Déi Lénk: 40
Piratepartei: 30

gender parity (M/W)
Déi Gréng: 31/29
Déi Lénk: 32/28
PID: 35/25
ADR: 38/22
KPL: 40/20
CSV: 41/19
DP: 45/15
LSAP: 45/15
Piraten Partei: 51/9

Some note on the two new parties running this year:

Piratepartei

The Pirate Party runs under the slogan "Reboot Luxembourg!". Beside of the traditional advocacy of the protection of personal data (including keeping banking secrecy), it proposes to introduce a basic income of 800€ per month and to abolish transport pass (transport would be rather financed by taxes). Otherwise, it defends same-sex marriage, legalization of marijuana, abolition of mandatory voting, lowering the voting age to 16, granting foreigner residents the right to vote, and the promotion of Luxembourgish language and its enshrinement in the constitution.

They suffered a setback when it was revealed that one of their candidate led a far-right party in the 1980s. The Pirates said that they are not used to investigate the past of their candidates but nonetheless withdraw the candidate and expelled him from the party. Déi Gréng criticized heavily the Pirates for the far-right candidate affair and also for changing the composition of the candidate lists without consulting the party members. Piratepartei finances itself by crowdfunding and is also strongly helped by its German counterpart.

Partei fir Integral Demokratie
The Party for Integral Democracy (PID) is the party formed by Jean Colombera, the marijuana-prescriber homeopath (he says himself he is an "integral physician" as he practices both conventional and homeopathic medicines) who left the ADR last year. Quite surprisingly, it managed to field candidates in every district, only few weeks after its establishment. Colombera is de facto the top leader and, afaik, the only PID candidate with political experience.

I would have hard time to assign an ideology to the PID, as its platform is pretty empty and as Colombera's discourse is a mix of vague platitudes and naive statements that you would rather hear from a 13-year old teenager rather than from someone who is a deputy since 1999. PID described itself as the "party of the common sense" and Colombera pretends to apply the principles of medicine to the policy-making in order to, according his own words, "find the cause of the illness rather than only treating the symptoms". He advocates "integral democracy" which, always according to his own words, means that deputies have to listen to the people and explore the best law to propose.

PID proposes only few concrete measures, which are partly inspired by the Swiss political system. For example, it wants to facilitate the organization of referendums and distribute the ministerial portfolios between parties proportionally to their electoral results. It's however pretty unclear how the latter would work as Colombera also wishes the political parties to disappear and complained about having to create a party to enter "the system" (described as "rotten" by Colombera). Colombera is also proud to not having include jurists on the PID's lists as "they are many in the House, but there is not a single maid nor a single worker". A son of Italian immigrants, Colombera proposes to extend vote to all residents in Luxembourg. Economically, the PID seems to be quite right-wing as Colombera denounces the bureaucracy and wanted five-year programmes for training students according to the needs of the economy rather than letting them pursue studies without employment prospects.

[Sir John Johns]

Number of seats with provisional results
CSV: 23 (-3)
LSAP: 13 (nc)
DP: 13 (+4)
Déi Gréng: 6 (-1)
ADR: 2 (-2)
Déi Lénk: 3 (+2)

Theorical majority for a LSAP-DP-Déi Gréng coalition. CSV-DP is also possible as CSV-LSAP, but this latter is probably politically excluded. On a related note, Déi Lénk had previously stated that it is opposed to a LSAP-DP-Déi Gréng government which would be "worst" than the outgoing CSV-LSAP government.

ADR losing ground despite campaigning against extending vote rights for foreigner residents.

[Sir John Johns]

Results with only a municipality (Contern) and a one poll station in Esch-sur-Alzette missing:

CSV: 33.63% (-4,41%) 23 seats (-3)
LSAP: 20.31% (-1,25%) 13 seats (nc)
DP: 18.22% (+3,24%) 13 seats (+4)
Déi Gréng: 10.13% (-1,58%) 6 seats (-1)
ADR: 6.67% (-1,46%) 3 seats (-1)
Déi Lénk: 4.94% (+1,65%) 2 seats (+1)
Piratepartei: 2.94% (+2.94%)
KPL: 1.64% (+0.17%)
PID: 1.51% (+1.51)

[Sir John Johns]

Note: Several municipalities have merged since 2009.

One of the big surprises to me is that Pirates are stronger in the northern and rural municipalities. Also, in Luxembourg City, they polled under their national score (2.69% against 2.94%).

PID is even more concentrated in rural North and appears to mostly relied on Jean Colombera's personal appeal (Colombera was a deputy from there and used to be a municipal councillor in Vichten, the town where PID won 11.18%).


In the news: one of the DP deputies has still resigned. Charles Goerens said he will not be part of a tripartite coalition governement and that he disagree with the way the three parties have announced that they will formed a coalition (without waiting the appointment of a formateur by the Grand Duke and without opening bargaining with the CSV). Apparently, Goerens was also pissed that outgoing foreign minister Jean Asselborn (LSAP) will keep his post, a post that Goerens wanted himself to be put in charge.

Also, a big loser seems to be Étienne Schmidt, the leader of the LSAP. All along the campaign he has said he would be the future prime minister. Now he had to give place to Xavier Bettel (DP) (who for his part had said few months ago he will remain as mayor of Luxembourg City) and will not not even be the deputy prime minister. This post will stay to Jean Asselborn.

[Sir John Johns]

I fail to see why DP gets to be the major party in the coalition and gets the prime minister, even though they got less votes than LSAP. Well, I guess they must have said to LSAP that they could also go and coalise with CSV.

This. And also, because the DP is the only real winner of the elections. It increased its share of votes by 3.24% while the two governing parties lost ground. LSAP's result could be see as a rebuff as it was the responsible of the fall of the government and changed its leadership just before the election but still failed to gain extra seats.

Bettel also won more personal votes (32,064 against 19,669 in 2009) than Étienne Schneider (19,682; in 2009 the LSAP top candidate Jeannot Krecké won 25,589) or François Bausch (11,598; 17,510 in 2009), the Green leader. The three ran in the same constituency.

Also, a question for you nerds : what is the socialists' stronghold in the north-west, the only town they won out of the French border and its neighbouring three towns where they performed quite well, and what are its reasons ?

The town is Wiltz. There are floorcovering and cooper industries. Until the 1960s, it was also the seat of tanneries. Perhaps of some relevancy, in 1942 the workers of the tanneries goes into general strike (spreading later to all the country), protesting against the German occupying authorities' decision to draft young Luxembourgers into the Wehrmacht.

[Sir John Johns]

Swing map (swing as 2013 percentage of vote - 2009 percentage of vote).

Both CSV and ADR suffered heavy losses in the North. ADR's loses can be easily explained by the strong concurrence from PID (despite the fact that PID's platform is basically the opposite of ADR's one, notably on voting rights for foreigners or societal issues). ADR's worst loss is in Vichten (Colombera's town) with -9.9%. No idea why CSV does so badly in the North.

LSAP lose many votes in the industrial parts of the country: Differdange (-3.36%), Dudelange (-5.63%), Elsch-sur-Alzette (-2.69%), Colmar-Berg (Goodyear factory, -7.01%, LSAP's 5th worst loss), Steinfort (where Jean Asselborn was previously mayor, -6.45%, 8th worst loss), Bettembourg (-4.36%), Pétange (-3.21%). A possible explanation is the profile of Étienne Schneider who belong to the right wing of the LSAP and was basically portrayed as a social traitor by Déi Lénk.

Déi Gréng's best progression is in the town of Mamer (+1.65%). An European School had recently open here.