NH-Gov 2024: If You Knew Sununu Like I Knew Sununu

[Morning in Atlas]

Let me cope, dammit.

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1643686033802895384?t=TZATHW_tvFNdpI6M...

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/CindeWarmington/status/1664243626258444289

Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington is officially in.

It's gonna be interesting because there isn't really a progressive vs. establishment divide in the primary (see: Hassan/Cilley, Feltes/Volinsky, Marchand/Van Ostern and Kelly). This is more on geographic lines - Craig has long-standing ties to Manchester, labor, and party officials, while Warmington is getting support from Concord, elected officials, and her district. Warmington also has ties to the Shaheens.

I think the primary will be a toss-up, bar anything else. Both candidates have strong connections to the state establishment and I don't foresee a coronation like 2022 or 2018-SoS. Warmington is the more "progressive" candidate, I guess, but doesn't have the ties to the movement that Volinsky or Marchand had. I support Warmington but I'm probably voting for Craig in the general unless she comes out against legalization. I'm much less strict statewide than I am nationally.   

Warmington is the best pick to take on Craig. The advantage of representing the hell-snake that is EC-2 is that she's connected everywhere besides Manchester/Nashua. She has a ton of local Democratic, mayoral, and even Congressional endorsements from Somersworth to Keene. The Seacoast is probably the main battleground - if Warmington can get out to a lead in Portsmouth, Exeter, and Hampton, she wins.

FWIW I still expect Sununu to retire. Then again, I've been coping for his entire gubernatorial term, so take it with a grain of salt. He's also flip-flopped on abortion and Don't Say Gay. If he does, the primary is surely Frank Edelblut's to lose.

[Morning in Atlas]

SawxDem, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the fact that Edelblut is considering a run should, alone, be interpreted as a sign that Sununu will retire. My understanding is that Edelblut is not super establishment / a loyal Sununu-ite. He ran against Sununu in the 2016 primary, as a significantly more conservative candidate, and Sununu appointed him to the Ed Commissioner role presumably in part to appease / gain support from the large swath of NH GOP voters who are to Sununu's right.

FWIW, I also think Sununu will probably retire, but I just don't think the potential Edelblut candidacy is necessarily a sign of that.

Brother Jonathan has explained things well - Edelblut has been "considering a run" since last cycle when Sununu was being lobbied for Senate. It's very well-known that he has higher ambitions but doesn't want to rock the boat to pursue them

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Of course, I will believe Sununu isn't running when I hear it.

[Morning in Atlas]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly Ayotte runs.

Supposedly, she wanted to run for governor in 2022 if Sununu ran for senate, but had no interest in returning to the senate.

Not sure if she would win a primary in todays GOP.

Agreed, it seems like Ayotte is gearing up to run if Sununu doesn’t. Ayotte would probably be the GOP’s best candidate for the general election if Sununu declines to run, but I’m also not confident she’d win the primary.

Agreed as well. If she wins the primary though, I'd start out with a Lean Republican rating.

Why? As senator she didn't have any kind of crossover appeal and she ended up losing by 0.1 point, not overperforming Trump in the slightest

She's already a fairly skilled campaigner (60% in a wave year is no fluke) and can appear moderate. I think the concerns about Craig are a bit overblown but Warmington has massive skeletons in her closet (literally worked for Purdue Pharma defending Oxycontin).

There's a huge difference between, say, Warren working as a corporate lawyer 30 years ago and peddling opioids to the state legislature. This is gonna be a huge difference maker in the primary - the ads write themselves! I'm genuinely surprised this didn't come out in 2020.

[Morning in Atlas]

Lean D

It's Lean D Ayotte is old News

But with Craig, essentially this

[Morning in Atlas]

What are the odds Sununu declines reelection?

70%? Sununu is pretty clearly leaning one way but the guy has always talked out of both sides of his mouth. I would not be surprised if he waited another year.

[Morning in Atlas]

Holy sh** I can finally stop coping

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/ChuckMorseForNH/status/1681702460480471041

LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Morning in Atlas]

Anyways, the Morse news puts the primary at Safe Edelblut if he wants it. Even if Ayotte ran, the NHGOP has gotten much more conservative and their alliance with Ayotte/Sununu is one of electability. Edelblut nearly beat Sununu in 2016 and is very conservative, but not insane like Bolduc. He'll get some statewide support from the right wing of the party.

With Morse in, all Edelblut needs to do is announce and he wins.

With Ayotte: Edelblut 46-Ayotte 37-Morse 17
Without Ayotte: Edelblut 68-Morse 32

[Morning in Atlas]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

Why would Ayotte make it Lean R? She’s been out of office for 6 years and lost her last election.

The Democrats don't really have a strong candidate as of yet.

What’s wrong with Warmington or Craig?

Warmington lobbied for Purdue Pharma back in the day and actively defended Oxycodone. As I've said, there's a massive difference between Warren working for corporations or whatever and literally shilling Oxy to the state. This entire thing alone is why I'm voting for Craig

[Morning in Atlas]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/24/kelly-ayotte-new-hampshire-governor-00107822#:~:text=Former%20Sen.%20Kelly%20Ayotte%20launched,Ayotte%20said%20in%20a%20statement.

Ayotte has just announced her bid for governor today.

Dunno if running against Massachusetts is a good strategy given its being #1 in many quality of life metrics. If she’s playing on tax fears, all Craig needs to really do is say she won’t implement any state income tax and that completely destroys that angle of attack.

Not being from the legislature helps this compared to, say, Feltes or Sherman.

To be fair, the NHDP has started to effectively countermessage by saying the GOP is the party of higher property taxes. Volinsky nearly won the primary (and had he announced earlier would have!) in 2020 off this message.

[Morning in Atlas]

I really don't get the hype about Ayotte. She last won an election 13 years ago and her social conservatism will cost her.

There is none. She's the Conor Lamb of the GOP - a grossly overrated campaigner who is largely coasting off one good election performance.

[Morning in Atlas]

Aside from the Feltes-esque robotics, let's see how the campaign's been going...

https://twitter.com/UnionLeader/status/1684137763132637184

LMFAOOOOOOOOOOO

[Morning in Atlas]

More importantly, "We’re becoming Massachusetts!" would have worked a lot better when the state hadn’t become Massachusetts yet.

It's actually smart; she's trying to win a primary right now but she doesn't want to take positions unpopular with the general electorate. This is the type of thing that might go well with Republican primary voters without damaging her in the general.

True, this is the type of stuff that plays well in theory. Conservatives don't like MA.

It's also not a centerpiece of a winning campaign (see: NHDP, 2018-2020). Fearmongering about an income tax would work better.

[Morning in Atlas]

Let's check in and see how our favorite candidate is pandering to the right:

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1685670211851046912

(Also not mentioned: The head of the state chapter for Moms for Liberty)

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1698341969343258657?t=KYsrU7y38__yRkpQ9nNt...

Edelblut out. Just a very weird decision all along.

Anyway, primary is Titanium Ayotte.

[Morning in Atlas]

To her credit she's done a great job consolidating her right flank (or at least its more institutional wing). Burns or whoever the right-wing gadfly is will probably take about 25-30% but it's clear Ayotte has this in the bag.