AZ-Sen: Fabrizio+Lee (R-Chamber of Commerce): McCain dominating, far above water

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/RobEngstrom/status/620602132379639808

McCain 53
Kirkpatrick 38

Looks reasonable... until you get to the 56-37 approval rating. And you realize the 56% is the approval side.

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if they were cooking numbers at this point.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

This poll is junk, but this seat will only flip to the Democrats if McCain loses the primary.

Naturally - that was a given.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

McCain has already announced that he will campaign mostly on local issues. That usually works. And unlike other Republicans, he will do better among Hispanics. Ask Jeff Flake why he almost lost in 2012... because Carmona crushed him among Hispanics. I despise McCain, but there is no guarantee that an alternative candidate will be a better campaigner than him. In fact, it is really unlikely. McCane has the incumbency advantage on his side - just like Ayotte and Toomey.

Right, because Mary Landrieu's and Mark Begich's 'local issues' campaigns worked so well

Landrieu and Begich were also on ultra-hostile territory.