PA-2016: Sestak files candidacy for rematch

[Morning in Atlas]

I'm not an expert on thread creation - Is it OK to give it a bump and just turn it into an all things PA-SEN thread? I don't see another one.

Anyway, it looks like Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski (D) is going to jump into the race. That's a pretty significant name who may have an electoral advantage in the general against Toomey because he can neutralize the Lehigh County (and perhaps Northampton County as it's in the same metro area) advantage that Toomey starts out with despite its traditionally Democratic leanings. In a Presidential year, you probably don't have to worry as much about a drop off in Philly area turnout due to the loss of Sestak unless it's a brutal primary, and even then it is slim. Maybe 2% lower vote total in Delaware County - just a guess of what Sestak's hometown advantage would bring judging by 2010, adjusting for inferior gubernatorial candidate. .5-1% in Montgomery and Bucks Counties at most and Philly is decimal points lower than it could be with Sestak. The Democrats could really do well by branching out to the other major strongholds and take Philly as a foregone conclusion.

Pawlowski's fundraising efforts in 2014 for governor were pretty terrible, but it looks like he's making a better effort to secure donors this time around so that he is taken as a serious opponent. Still, even if he managed to surprise us with his fundraising, the Toomey money machine will be tough to stop - a Democratic primary will only drain the opposition's war chest regardless of which candidate comes out of it.
Pawlowski should be a more serious primary opponent than Carney, who is really just old news (or Hughes/Shapiro who both do next to nothing to improve the Dem's chances).

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-pa-senate-ed-pawlowski-pat-toomey-20150404-story.html#page=1

nah

[Morning in Atlas]

I saw one recent newspaper poll (not a scientific poll) that showed 32% preferred Chris Carney to be the Democratic Party nominee and 22% preferred Sestak. I believe Carney represented a suburban Pittsburgh riding and that paper may have been from Pittsburgh.

Nah, Carney used to represent northeastern PA.