Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

New Hampshire



SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    DEM   5
SD 2    REP   2
SD 3    REP   -1
SD 4    DEM   8
SD 5    DEM   16
SD 6    REP   -2
SD 7    DEM   0
SD 8    REP   0
SD 9    REP   -3
SD 10   DEM   14
SD 11   REP   -3
SD 12   DEM   -4
SD 13   DEM   7
SD 14   REP   -8
SD 15   DEM   12
SD 16   REP   -2
SD 17   REP   -3
SD 18   DEM   -1
SD 19   REP   -9
SD 20   DEM   2
SD 21   DEM   15
SD 22   REP   -10
SD 23   REP   -3
SD 24   REP   -2



SD   INC   PVI
SD 5           DEM   16
SD 21   DEM   15
SD 10   DEM   14
SD 15   DEM   12
SD 4    DEM   8
SD 13   DEM   7
SD 1    DEM   5
SD 2    REP   2
SD 20   DEM   2
SD 7    DEM   0
SD 8    REP   0
SD 3    REP   -1    *
SD 18   DEM   -1
SD 6    REP   -2
SD 16   REP   -2
SD 24   REP   -2
SD 9    REP   -3
SD 11   REP   -3
SD 17   REP   -3
SD 23   REP   -3
SD 12   DEM   -4
SD 14   REP   -8
SD 19   REP   -9
SD 22   REP   -10

I will just quote Sawx:

Updated Senate rankings:

• SD1: Safe D (D+4). A classic Democratic North Country district. Jeff Woodburn fits this place like a glove.
• SD2: Likely R (R+1). Jeannie Forrester has steadily risen through the ranks to become the Finance committee chairwoman, and despite her 53% Obama seat, has held on with about 54% in 2012. Easily one of the strongest candidates the GOP has.
• SD3: Safe R (R+2). Even some of you guys know who Jeb Bradley is. Name recognition alone will propel him to victory.
• SD4: Safe D (D+6). Ever since redistricting put Dover in here it's gotten 13 points more Democratic. Watters is a weak candidate who might lose if the wave grows to 2010's height and there's a moderate (read: not Woody), but overall, he should be safe.
• SD5: Safe D (D+15). It's based in Hanover and Claremont. Pierce is as safe as can be.
• SD6: Likely R (RW) (R+2). Senator Sam Cataldo barely won with 51% and his challenger, Richard Leonard, is looking for a rematch. I like his chances if Cataldo retires (he's be 77), but he just got elected, so he's probably sticking around. Cataldo did around the same as Romney did, but he's very economically conservative.
• SD7: Lean D. (R+1) Andrew Hosmer may have won decisively against Youssef, but the results are very deceiving: Youssef was a horrible candidate. He got caught impersonating an endorsement from attorney/conservative activist Ed Mosca (who represented his ex-wife in their divorce). It was also revealed that he dodged income taxes and child support payments throughout his life. However, Youssef has decided to run again in 2014, and of course, if he wins, it's safe Democratic, but I'm not betting they'll be this lucky again. It's a toss-up if someone else gets the nominee - anyone is better than Youssef.
• SD8:(RW) (PW) (R+1). Odell is probably the most moderate of the Republicans here, and also has been floated for higher office. He's very prominent in the party, chairs the powerful Ways and Means Committee, and he greatly overperformed Romney in Romney. However, he will be 71, and a top candidate in JP Marzullo is running against him, so Odell may call it quits. It's Safe R with Odell, and a toss-up with Marzullo. Odell is retiring. This will be competitive
• SD9: Toss-Up. (R+3) Andy Sanborn is one of the more reliably conservative members of the chamber and is also advancing in leadership, but like I said, he has a strong tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Over the past year, he was caught calling governor Maggie Hassan a hag, compared Obamacare to a plane crash, and threatening to revoke a constituent's scholarship over him supporting marijuana legalization. Couple that with a 200-vote win last time and he has a good chance of losing.
• SD-10: Safe D. It's Keene. Who's going to run here, DW Perry?
• SD-11: Likely R (RW) (R+3). After the scandal at the LGC.
• SD-12: Toss-up/Tilt R (RW) (R+4). Peggy Gilmour only won by 1000 votes in this Republican-leaning district. She's also getting up there in age, and if she retires or Republicans recruit someone good, they have a much better chance at winning. After all, this is a 51.9% Romney district.
• SD-13: Likely D: (D+4) Lambert's win was a fluke, but a moderate could win this ancestrally Democratic district.
• SD-14: Safe R: Although the Republican only got 53%, the Libertarian got 6% and the Democrat got 40%. Write this place off.
• SD-15: Safe D: (D+10) The safest seat in the Union. Sylvia Larsen has been here since 1994, and this seat is reliably safe. She regularly comes close to 70% each time she runs.
• SD-16: Leans R (R+2). David Boutin may be leading our equivalent of the House Appropriations Committee, but he only squeaked by 350 votes. The good news is that a libertarian received 950 votes. The bad news is that Patrick Arnold, the Democratic nominee for Manchester mayor who was 940 votes away from beating Ted Gatsas in an off-off year, is considering a run in this district. With a stronger libertarian candidate or a candidate like Arnold, Boutin may very well fall.
• SD-17: Safe R. (R+3) Reagan is fairly moderate, and his district tilts Republican too. I think he's got this.
• SD-18: Toss-Up/Tilts D. (R+2) Donna Soucy won by much more than expected here. No real idea about Gail Barry, but Arthur Beaudry's an independent in every sense of the word. Should probably say a lot about her strength.
• SD-19: Safe R. (R+9) Rausch, even in a swing district, would be fine.
• SD-20: Safe D (RW). (D+1)  Lou D'Allesandro is a fighter who even survived in 2010. He's been around forever, and despite being in an even district, has made this seat his until he retires (which could be very soon, he'll be 75).
• SD-21: Safe D. (D+14) Fuller Clark is an institution around Portsmouth, and her seat has become 4 points more Democratic since losing in 2010.
• SD-22: Safe R. (R+11) Morse is the Senate President for a reason. He's safe in this district.
• SD-23: Safe R. (R+4) Russell Prescott outperformed Romney by 2000 votes, and the inland parts of the district balance off the reliably Democratic outside.
• SD-24: Leans R. (R+3) Nancy Stiles is a good candidate, a conservative who will sometimes beat Democrats, and was the candidate who beat Martha Fuller Clark when SD-21 only leaned Democratic, but she's gotten a lot of flack for flip-flopping this cycle. This district is going to be a rough hit. She is pro-gay marriage. Once again, the right candidate can win here, Chris Muns has raised quite a bit of money for a State Senate campaign, and Democrats have lots of room to hit her, but it will be an uphill battle.

Gun to my head, I say Sanborn and Gilmour fall and both parties break even. For Democrats to take the Senate, they must hold all of their seats, obviously. The path to taking the Senate, however, must go through Andy Sanborn's seat. His last two controversies were overblown, but bullying a constituent into silence will not stand well. Then, they will have to win one of SD-2, SD-8 (which is possible thanks to a top-tier primary threat), SD-16, and SD-24. Preferably more would do for an insurance.

Strangely, we don't have the same PVI.

Yeah, I was using MiscellanyBlue's data.