Jim Gerlach retiring

[Morning in Atlas]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

I'm hoping McGinty drops out and opts for a run here. Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

[Morning in Atlas]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

Cook says it's R+2, not R+7. I can tell you from personal experience that it's swingy, and that if it wasn't for Gerlach being a fighter and a weak Republican bench, this seat would be Democratic. At most this seat Leans R.

Someone like Sam Rohrer could very well blow this seat for Republicans. All I know is that he's staunchly conservative to the point where he attracted the ire of ThinkProgress.

[Morning in Atlas]

I wonder if he's planning on challenging Corbett in the primary...mwa ha ha ha ha ha ha...

Well given the fact that I'm not panicking, he's ruled himself out.

To his credit, if Gerlach did decide to challenge Corbett, he would probably win in a landslide, and he'd definitely make a race with Schwartz. She isn't exactly the right Democrat to win here.

[Morning in Atlas]

He's averaging the MOV, not the specific vote percentages.

[Morning in Atlas]

"I reject your version of reality and substitute my own."



This is how you calculate PVI. This isn't even close to R+7.

[Morning in Atlas]

Sabato has it as Toss-Up. I think it's a bit more Tilt/Lean R. Certainly not impossible for Dems to win here, but I won't hold my breath.




That being said, there's something to be said about the flight of GOP moderates in the house. Gerlach, Latham, Runyan, Wolf. If LoBiondo or Reichert retire next, that'll just be the icing on the cake.

It most definitely Tilts R. I obviously disagree with a few Republicans on the forum, and I think McGinty would be a fool not to drop down, but the seat definitely favors Republicans.

If Reichert retires, he'll probably go for Murray's seat.

[Morning in Atlas]

I've also heard State Senators Andy Dinniman and Judy Schwankvfloated. Commissioner Kathi Cozzone would be good too.

[Morning in Atlas]

Downingtown Mayor Josh Maxwell still running for State House. McGinty most likely has no plans to switch either.

[Morning in Atlas]

Judy Schwank is also out. However, State Rep. Mike Rozzi is in.

[Morning in Atlas]

Costello's in.

Political views? Hope - not another tea-party extremist.

I don't know much, but he doesn't seem kooky.

[Morning in Atlas]

Phil LaRue, the communications director for the New Democrat Coalition, is out. So is Rohrer, reducing the odds of a Tea Partier getting the nom.

[Morning in Atlas]

If Rohrer gets it, the race is competitive.

Rohrer said no.

[Morning in Atlas]

Cozzone is out, and Rossi has changed his mind. Democrats seem to be coalescing around Parrish.

Congrats Phil.

[Morning in Atlas]

Cozzone is out, and Rossi has changed his mind. Democrats seem to be coalescing around Parrish.

Congrats Phil.

The Cozzone news is from a few days ago but I didn't hear about Rozzi. Interesting. The seat was not going to flip anyway. This just makes it even better for the GOP.

Yeah, unless Parrish is better than I think it's Likely R.

[Morning in Atlas]

Cozzone is out, and Rossi has changed his mind. Democrats seem to be coalescing around Parrish.

Congrats Phil.

Why coalesce around a business guy unless you have to?

Because everybody doesn't want to run. Parrish is a businessman with quite a bit of military background, but I'd rather Cozzone or Dinniman run.

[Morning in Atlas]

And Parrish is out. Sounds like it'll be Costello vs. Trivedi.