2014 state legislature (general) elections

[Morning in Atlas]

New Hampshire's Senate has a decent chance of flipping to the Democrats. The NHGOP is probably the worst GOP in the entire country - they're in a total bind to the point where they've resorted to bringing in a candidate from Massachusetts and because of that, they've offended the base to the point where they're all getting behind a collection of nutjobs. My state's Democratic Party, in contrast, is united, from the progressives like Carol Shea-Porter to the centrists like John Lynch.

The Senate's still been relatively far-right, and mostly voted to keep the policies set by the 2010 legislature. Their vote against Medicaid expansion and the controversy about Senate President Bragdon getting a job at the Local Government Center will definitely hurt them, especially if Gatsas (who's the only potential credible candidate Republicans have - there's no way Odell or Forrester will risk a swing seat that they make safe) decides not to run for governor. There's also the fact that the linchpin for Republican control who only won by ~200 votes hasn't exactly stayed out of trouble this cycle.

And even if he loses, we're still recruiting good candidates. There's rumblings about former alderman Patrick Arnold (who came out of almost nowhere to give Gatsas a run for his money) taking on David Boutin (who won by 400), and state rep. Chris Muns has already announced a run against Nancy Stiles (who's a serial flip-flopper to the point where Romney would blush, and most likely would take a hit from abandoning the positions that made her win in 2012). I'm fairly optimistic about our chances here.

*Republicans will probably pick up Kentucky's House next year. Definitely WV's.
*Iowa could have full GOP control, very true.
*But coming from someone who lives in PA for most of the year, and as much as I hate that piece of human garbage Corbett, they won't be taking the Senate or the House unless there's a scandal that happens.
*And if the local wave holds up in CO, the Republicans could gain the Senate (or maybe the House).

[Morning in Atlas]

Yeah, I know Democrats gained a seat in NH's House (which could also flip if Republicans stop sh**tting the bed).

[Morning in Atlas]

Yeah, basically that.

IIRC Phil said something about a Senator in a swing district retiring, so Democrats are going to have to donate some resources to that seat instead of GOP seats (congrats, Phil). He can explain why I'm not confident in Democrats taking the legislature better than I can.

[Morning in Atlas]

Democrats picked up one more House seat. The only vacancy's in a safe Republican district so it's closer to 220-180. But knowing how much of a disaster NH's Republican Party is, that's not likely.

[Morning in Atlas]

I'm feeling bored, but here's a district-by-district breakdown of the NH Senate. I'd say there's a chance Democrats take the Senate.

• SD1: Safe D. Jeff Woodburn won with 59% last time and is fairly moderate so I'm very confident he wins again. A good fit for the district.
• SD2: Likely R. Jeannie Forrester has steadily risen through the ranks to become the Finance committee chairwoman, and despite her even seat, has held on with about 54% in 2012. Easily one of the strongest candidates the GOP has.
• SD3: Safe R. Even some of you guys know who Jeb Bradley is.
• SD4: Safe D. Ever since redistricting put Dover in here it's gotten 13 points more Democratic. Watters is a weak candidate who might lose if the wave grows to 2010's height, but overall, he should be safe.
• SD5: Safe D. Joe Osgood, a state representative who was probably the best candidate Republicans had here, only got around 36% of the vote. Republicans don't have a chance here in this Hanover and Claremont-based district.
• SD6: Leans R (RW). Senator Sam Cataldo barely won with 51% and his challenger, Richard Leonard, is looking for a rematch. I like his chances if Cataldo retires (he'll be 77), but he just got elected. I'm admittedly not up by Rochester that much at all, so I'm cautiously optimistic. Cataldo did around the same as Romney did, but he's very conservative.
• SD7: Lean D. Andrew Hosmer may have won decisively against Youssef, but the results are very deceiving: Youssef got caught impersonating an endorsement from attorney/conservative activist Ed Mosca (who represented his ex-wife in their divorce). It was also revealed that he dodged income taxes and child support payments. However, Youssef has decided to run again in 2014, and of course, if he wins, it's safe Democratic, but I'm not betting they'll be this lucky again.
• SD8: Safe R (RW). Odell has been fairly moderate and also has been floated for higher office. He's very prominent in the party, chairs the powerful Ways and Means Committee, and he greatly overperformed Romney. However, he will be 71, so Odell may call it quits.
• SD9: Toss-Up/Tilt D. Sanborn is one of the more reliably conservative members of the chamber and is also advancing, but like I said, he has a strong tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Couple that with a 200-vote win last time and he has a good chance of losing.
• SD-10: Safe D. It's Keene. Democrats will be fine.
• SD-11: Leans R (RW). Peter Bragdon may have gone unopposed in 2012, but ever since the LGC scandal where he was pressured to step down from his Senate presidency, Democrats have a very good chance if they can find the right candidate. However, Bragdon could just step down altogether and have a graceful exit from the Senate. No way he goes unopposed this time.
• SD-12: Toss-up (RW). Peggy Gilmour only won by 1000 votes in this swing district. She's also getting up there in age, and if she retires or Republicans recruit someone good, they have a much better chance at winning. After all, this is a 51.9% Romney district.
• SD-13: Safe D: This district is ancestrally Democratic and isn't moving to Republicans. Lambert's win here was a fluke.
• SD-14: Safe R: Although the Republican only got 53%, the Libertarian got 6% and the Democrat got 40%. Write this place off.
• SD-15: Safe D: The safest seat in the Union. Sylvia Larsen has been here since 1994, and this seat is reliably safe. She regularly comes close to 70% each time she runs.
• SD-16: Toss-Up. David Boutin may be leading our equivalent of the House Appropriations Committee, but he only squeaked by 350 votes. The good news is that a libertarian received 950 votes. The bad news is that Patrick Arnold, the Democratic nominee for Manchester mayor who was 940 votes away from beating Ted Gatsas in an off-off year, is considering a run in this district. With a stronger libertarian candidate or a candidate like Arnold, Boutin may very well fall.
• SD-17: Likely R. Reagan is fairly moderate, and his district tilts Republican too. I think he's got this.
• SD-18: Toss-Up/Tilts D. Donna Soucy won by much more than expected here. No real idea about Gail Barry, but Arthur Beaudry's an independent in every sense of the word. Should probably say a lot about her.
• SD-19: Safe R. Rausch, despite his district's leanings, overperformed Romney by a lot. He's fine.
• SD-20: Safe D (RW). Lou D'Allesandro is a fighter who even survived in 2010. He's been around forever, and despite being in an even district, has made this seat his until he retires (which could be very soon, he'll be 75).
• SD-21: Safe D. Fuller Clark is an institution around Portsmouth, and her seat has become 4 points more Democratic since losing in 2010.
• SD-22: Safe R. Morse is the Senate President for a reason. He's safe in this district.
• SD-23: Likely R. Russell Prescott outperformed Romney by 2000 votes, and the inland parts of the district balance off the reliably Democratic outside.
• SD-24: Leans R. Nancy Stiles is a good candidate, a moderate, and was the candidate who beat Martha Fuller Clark, but she's gotten a lot of flack for flip-flopping this cycle. Although her district is reliably Republican, she is a moderate and she is pro-gay marriage. Once again, the right candidate can win here, and Democrats have lots of room to hit her, but it will be an uphill battle.

Gun to my head, I say Sanborn, Gilmour, and Boutin fall. 12-12 Senate. But if Bragdon retires and Peter Hansen gets the nomination, Democrats can take that seat. After all, being famous for calling women "vagina's" tends to not bode well.

[Morning in Atlas]

I'm feeling bored, but here's a district-by-district breakdown of the NH Senate. I'd say there's a chance Democrats take the Senate.

Is it too naughty to ask for similar list for NH House?? (yes, i know, that  there are 400 representatives in it))). As a minimum - i would like to know more about "mavericks": like David Kidder among Republicans (very moderate AFAIK) or Michael Garcia or Tim O'Flaherty (both are very conservative Democrats, IMHO)

I don't have that much work, but I can tell you that Kidder is safe as can be. Garcia has a small chance of losing if it's like 2010, and O'Flaherty has a decent chance of getting primaried. O'Flaherty isn't even a Democrat - he's actually a self-professed anarchist who's part of the Free State Project. He just "agrees more with liberal views".

[Morning in Atlas]

More endorsements!

Former GOP congressman Bill Zeliff endorses Mike Cryans (D) in the EC-1 race. I'd rate it Leans D for now.