Ultra Vulnerable Mark Kirk 2016: Is he Toast?

[Morning in Atlas]

He's already announced that he's seeking reelection, and his opponents are likely to be Sheila Simon or Lisa Madigan (more likely the former).

The odds are at 45% that he'll get re-elected (or in simpler terms Tilts D). Although this may be Illinois, he has incumbency, and if he faces Pat Quinn's right-hand woman, he could very well win reelection by tying her to the man in Springfield. Madigan would have an easier time, but I've heard from a few people that she's not overly interested in DC politics. If it's Rahm then it's a completely different story since he's in the toilet even in Chicago. I'll even go as far to say that it Leans Republican with him.

He isn't as vulnerable as you think.

[Morning in Atlas]

Madigan is not going to run. Keep dreaming.

omg no way

[Morning in Atlas]

Ahh, beaten to the punch by Sawx.

But yeah pretty much that. At the moment there are no major candidates that could jump in and wreak havoc, like Russ Feingold very well may do with Johnson in WI. Since it's such a Democratic state, I'll put this as a Lean D state, but Kirk is a moderate and hasn't done much to anger the electorate.

Yeah, he really has done things for his state and been moderate, after all he was on of the few R's to vote for background checks.

He's also pro-gay marriage and pro-immigration reform. It's a shame he's in Illinois because he's one of the few Republicans I'm sad to see become vulnerable.

[Morning in Atlas]

I can see why Krazen is so desperately insistent that Lisa Madigan will not run for Senate.  Because if she does and Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, I think Kirk is a Dead Man Walking.

Don't bother. I'm guessing by the response to my post he isn't literate. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Madigan isn't a huge fan of national politics.

[Morning in Atlas]

He'll have a tough time against someone like Madigan. Foster I think would be a good challenger but he'll be 61 in 2016 and probably wants to settle in to his new district and gain some seniority. Lipinski I think would have a very good shot at beating him because he could hold down Kirk's margins among various catholic and dixiecrat constituencies. Quigley might be good too since he has a more reformer image among the Chicago congressman.

Duckworth at least has a good story behind her. Foster won't run. Bustos and Schneider could but are Generic D so I could see Kirk beating them. Enyart will tighten his seat up after Bost teabags his way out of it, so he will stay, and Lipinski AFAIC is an afterthought. He's too socially conservative to win the primary.

I completely forgot about Quigley though. He could definitely win and seems like a much better candidate than Simon.

[Morning in Atlas]

Can't Obama come back and run? Does he want to?

He could. Andrew Johnson did it, and John Quincy Adams served in the House. However, it's not going to happen. I also think Michelle running is a liberal dream too. It'd be nice, and someone of her statue could probably win, but also extremely wishful thinking.

[Morning in Atlas]

The Senate needs Jan Schakowsky.