Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Allyson Schwartz has left Third Way, partly because of their letter about Elizabeth Warren.

Hopefully she decides to go the whole way and pull a Gillibrand.

Awesome! Her connection to Third Way was a big reservation I had about her.

I'm voting for John Hanger.  Bout time we legalize marijuana.

Corbett thanks you.

>implying hanger has more than a 1% chance in the general

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Allyson Schwartz has left Third Way, partly because of their letter about Elizabeth Warren.

Hopefully she decides to go the whole way and pull a Gillibrand.

Awesome! Her connection to Third Way was a big reservation I had about her.

I'm voting for John Hanger.  Bout time we legalize marijuana.

Corbett thanks you.

>implying hanger has more than a 1% chance in the general

So you're voting for a guy you think is unelectable?

He's not unelectable by any means - his positions on energy would turn people off from voting for him than pot. However, I'm just stating facts - progressives seem to be coalescing around McGinty, and despite Hanger's grassroots efforts, he's still in fourth place. He's not likely to get past the primary.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Allyson Schwartz has left Third Way, partly because of their letter about Elizabeth Warren.

Hopefully she decides to go the whole way and pull a Gillibrand.

Awesome! Her connection to Third Way was a big reservation I had about her.

I'm voting for John Hanger.  Bout time we legalize marijuana.

Corbett thanks you.

>implying hanger has more than a 1% chance in the general

So you're voting for a guy you think is unelectable?

He's not unelectable by any means - his positions on energy would turn people off from voting for him than pot. However, I'm just stating facts - progressives seem to be coalescing around McGinty, and despite Hanger's grassroots efforts, he's still in fourth place. He's not likely to get past the primary.

So the 1% was his chances of winning both the primary and the GE? I thought you meant he had 1% chance of beating Corbett if he was already the nominee.

To be honest, Hanger and Corbett would be a toss-up in the GE because of his stances on energy (along with a few more issues), but I'm voting for him in case that 1% happens. I like to think idealistically, but the man himself basically said that to have a chance at victory he'd poll at 15% of the vote by December, and the most he got was 7%. He'd have a chance in the general, but as far as the primary goes, he's hanging on by a thread.

Marijuana will not win alone here.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

To be honest, Hanger and Corbett would be a toss-up in the GE because of his stances on energy (along with a few more issues), but I'm voting for him in case that 1% happens. I like to think idealistically, but the man himself basically said that to have a chance at victory he'd poll at 15% of the vote by December, and the most he got was 7%. He'd have a chance in the general, but as far as the primary goes, he's hanging on by a thread.

Marijuana will not win alone here.

Yeah, I'm not too keen on supporting Hanger since he'd likely be the weakest possible nominee and I really want Corbett gone. What do you think about McCord and McGinty?

I would have loved for McGinty to drop down to PA-6 a la Meehan, but she'd be a fine candidate. McCord I've heard is more economically moderate but pro-union, so lean plus.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

So much for joking. Just saying.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Yeah - that's why I think this Leans D. Not out of the question, but trends alone won't carry him.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

State Sen. Rich Kasunic is retiring. He holds a SWPA seat based in Somerset and Fayette counties.

Congrats Phil

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Schwartz isn't a flaming liberal, but she sure isn't moderate either. Her main issue just isn't a good fit, and it gives Corbett room to eke out a victory.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

Mark Critz says hello. So does Altmire, and if you want to branch out from Western PA, Kanjorski, Holden, and Carney. Conservative Democrats are alive and well in Pennsylvania. Even Casey Jr. is somewhat moderate as far as abortion goes - he just wants to make it so abortion won't be an option, unlike your average anti-choice zealots.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

Mark Critz says hello. So does Altmire, and if you want to branch out from Western PA, Kanjorski, Holden, and Carney. Conservative Democrats are alive and well in Pennsylvania. Even Casey Jr. is somewhat moderate as far as abortion goes - he just wants to make it so abortion won't be an option, unlike your average anti-choice zealots.

The fact that every single one of those people you listed lost to a Republican (or in Holden's case, a pro-choice Democrat in a primary) kind of proves my point. Casey Jr. is the only remaining prominent pro-life Democrat, and he's a throwback to an earlier time.

Even after McCain deluged PA in ads highlighting Obama's vote against a partial birth abortion ban, Obama still won by 11 points. The idea that the electorate is going to re-elect a guy with a <30% approval rating because Schwartz used to run an abortion clinic borders on hilarious.

Because Republicans having a wave in a redistricting year means that there are no Blue Dogs anymore. ::

Critz, Holden, and Altmire were gerrymandered out of their districts, Kanjorski just broke down because of a few Akin-esque comments, a scandal, and a strong challenger, but only got carried by the wave in 2008, and Carney lost in 2010. There's still a decent chunk of rural Democrats who are socially conservative, and are pro-life there. 2008 is also irrelevant because of a wave. Of course Obama's going to win by 10 points.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

Mark Critz says hello. So does Altmire, and if you want to branch out from Western PA, Kanjorski, Holden, and Carney. Conservative Democrats are alive and well in Pennsylvania. Even Casey Jr. is somewhat moderate as far as abortion goes - he just wants to make it so abortion won't be an option, unlike your average anti-choice zealots.

The fact that every single one of those people you listed lost to a Republican (or in Holden's case, a pro-choice Democrat in a primary) kind of proves my point. Casey Jr. is the only remaining prominent pro-life Democrat, and he's a throwback to an earlier time.

Even after McCain deluged PA in ads highlighting Obama's vote against a partial birth abortion ban, Obama still won by 11 points. The idea that the electorate is going to re-elect a guy with a <30% approval rating because Schwartz used to run an abortion clinic borders on hilarious.

Dude, we've been over this: 2008 wasn't going to be about partial birth abortion votes. The fact that the economy tanked gave Obama the big win. McCain's campaign threw a Hail Mary by running those ads (which I don't even remember).

And, as we have also discussed before, the link of Schwartz to abortion is a lot stronger than Obama's. Please stop this disingenuous routine of acting like they're the same. People are going to be very wary of Schwartz because of her history.

Danke schoen. Good to see someone else sees PA as more than two cities.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Corbett will also use PR in discussing his accomplishments in office

>accomplishments

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Congrats, Snowstalker.

'Tis a shame Hanger isn't from New Hampshire. Or any state where retail politics can work, tbh.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Former Harrisburg mayor Linda Thompson running in PA-4.

lol

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

That means Corbett has a good chance of winning reelection.

Are you on drugs? Honest question.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

Oh, I'm not ruling it out by any means. I'm just saying, to say he's favored at this point in the game is ludicrous.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Not likely to flip. Won't rule it out but Corbett has a better chance of winning than the leg flipping to Ds.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.

If this actually did get bad enough to the point where Kane would need to resign, a Republican will be the next Attorney General.

No need to worry though, since I highly doubt it will.

There is also the possibility of impeachment, just so you know.

Impeachment on what grounds? At the moment, there are none.

Daryl Metcalfe already tried to impeach her because he didn't like her dropping the defense of the gay marriage ban. If what Williams is saying is true, then he would actually have legitimate grounds to file charges.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

And Tom Wolf comes out against Kane's handling of the case.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Wagner drops out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/wagner_bows_out_democratic_gov.html#incart_river_default

Ha. Wow. That was sad.

Conservadems get support only when the primary voters think they need one to win. With Corbett looking so weak and several more liberal and equally strong alternatives, Wagner never had a chance.

You mean like 2010?

Wagner lost the primary then to Onorato, Dan Onorato, who was, in turn, trounced by Corbett.

If you want to add A) 2014 will be as bad a year as 2010 and B) Corbett was just as weak as he was then as he was now to your list of denials and delusions then yeah that's what I mean.

I have not said anything about Corbett's weakness, only the weakness of your statements.

Wagner was probably the strongest candidate in the General.  It does mean that Corbett won't lose, but the likelihood that he will just went down.  A lot of Corbett's political problems are going away, ironically with no effort from Corbett.

Wagner is the John Raese of Pennsylvania. Wolf would be a much stronger alternative.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I don't know about Wolf, but Schwartz and McCord both favor fracking, Corbett's signature issue.  They want to keep it and tax it.  It does strengthen the idea that he made the right decision.

So does Wolf, as long as it's regulated.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

F & M Poll:  Wolf at 33%, trailed by Schwartz at 7%.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/wolf_holds_his_gubernatorial_p.html#incart_river_default

I believe that is down by 3 points, but it is still a huge lead.

That 3 points is easily MoE averaged between two polls. The point is his nearest competitor is 26 points behind and in single digits. Plus he should have plenty of money to match or outdo his opponents' ad campaigns when they finally hit the airwaves.

For one of the pack to over take Wolf at this point is probably going to take a scandal, megagaffe(s), or a negative campaign of unsurpassed effectiveness.

I think that qualifies as a "huge lead." 

At least in Phila, McCord has been on the air.  It has barely made a dent in his and Wolf's numbers.  That is a very good sign for Wolf.

Can confirm, saw a McCord commercial up in the Lanc recently.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Meh, we have Sestak.