southernnorthcarolina
sonocarolina
Newbie
Posts: 10
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« on: December 23, 2003, 09:30:42 AM » |
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I suppose to be consistent with my map in the Predictions section, I should say "No -- Dean won't be the next McGovern." I have Bush defeating a generic Democratic candidate by a 317-221 count, with the Democrat winning ME, VT, MA, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, MI, IL, WA, CA, and HI. Or to put it another way, Bush holds all states he won in 2000, and tacks on WI, MN, IA, NM, and OR.
I'm a conservative Republican, and I've been cautioning my Republican friends against overconfidence. There's far too much of that going around, particularly following Saddam's capture. Still, if Dean is the nominee (no sure thing, in my opinion), I'd be tempted to move PA, and perhaps MI and WA to the Bush side of the ledger. Of course it's early yet, and situations out of the control of the candidates will change.
One reason I don't see a McGovernesque blowout is continued GOP weakness in the suburbs of cities in the East, Midwest, and California. Republicans still win in the burbs, for the most part, but often not by the margins required to overcome the big city vote. A few decades ago, for instance, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego Counties would overwhelm LA and the Bay Area. GOP totals of 75% and more in those counties was commonplace, but no more. Now, it's more like 55%. Why the falloff in the burbs? Soccer Moms; pro-choice voters; concerns about growth and sprawl -- and the fact that the burbs are no longer lily-white. Orange County in particular has seen a huge surge in its Latino population. In other areas, the black suburban vote is becoming significant. Although middle-class suburban blacks aren't as certain to vote Democratic as those they've "left behind," they still lean strongly that way.
The story's the same in the "collar counties" surrounding Chicago. They still vote GOP, but recently not by margins sufficient to offset Cook County.
Suburban weakness, in my opinion, takes NY, NJ, IL, and CA (despite Arnold) out of play for the GOP under most conditions.
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