Leaning Democrat States

[PolitiJunkie]

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

[PolitiJunkie]

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

Which is pretty much a majority of the state. What's your point?

That your point was moot/irrelevant/dumb.

Without any party that isn't the Rent Is Too Damn High Party, every state would be safe RITDH.

[PolitiJunkie]

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

Which is pretty much a majority of the state. What's your point?

That your point was moot/irrelevant/dumb.

Without any party that isn't the Rent Is Too Damn High Party, every state would be safe RITDH.

I discussing why Pennsylvania is the way it is. Philadelphia pretty much delivers PA's "Leaning D" rank. As well as your point that you described, without old rural religious redneck racists, Kentucky wouldn't be the way it is (even if I don't agree with racist part). I'm not trying to be blame things for being the way they are, I'm explaining why they are the way they are. Sorry if you took it in that way.

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky has about a thousand people. 

Exactly. I'm just saying how moot the points are. Saying Pennsylvania is Lean R without Philly and Pittsburgh is like saying Kentucky is Safe D without rednecks, old whites, and non-cities. I'm not saying you're blaming anything on anyone, but you are just making heinously obvious points that bear no relevance to any political conversation whatsoever.

[PolitiJunkie]

All these states have something in common (except PA), and that is that there are a lot of white liberals, or the white population is on average more liberal than the nation.

Exit Polls among white voters

Maine: 57% Obama
Oregon: 54% Obama
Michigan: 55% Romney
Minnesota: 49% Romney
Wisconsin: 51% Romney
Iowa: 51% Obama
New Hampshire: 51% Obama

This along with a large secular or catholic population (which is trending D for some reason) makes these states Lean D.

Pennsylvania also has a high Catholic population. There's a lot of Irish Catholics and blue collar workers where I'm from in the northwestern part of the state. However, it's trending to the right little by little. It could become the next Ohio or even Florida. One of my favorite quotes about our state is from James Carville. "Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, Alabama in the middle." Without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we'd be about 60-39. Internally, it's light red with a slightly Republican legislature traditionally. As for the governor's mansion, it goes back and forth between 8 years of each party. What Pennsylvania has in common with the other states too is the number of blue collar workers. You mentioned white liberals and you were right on the money. White liberals tend to be less liberal than other liberals which would make sense that these states are purplish blue and not blue.

Without Pittsburgh, the state is a pure toss-up. Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R. Without both, we'd probably have Georgia. Philadelphia is the real killer, but republican trends with rural whites in the Appalachian region of the state and the population loss (or lack of growth) in Philadelphia is making the state trend slightly R each election.

Philadelphia is the reason I support states giving electoral votes based on congressional districts. Another interesting factor about the keystone state is that there's very few counties and precincts where voters are swayable. You pretty much know what you're going to get other than voter turnout. Low voter turnout could help the state flip to Republican, but we'd have almost the exact same state map as 2012. Leaning Democratic states are probably my favorite to analyze. I find the voters match my ideology best.

Wait, so you think Romney should have received several more electoral votes from Pennsylvania than Obama, even though Obama received more votes in the state?