Where do the states fall?

[PolitiJunkie]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

[PolitiJunkie]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

Not a chance Florida moves left of center. It's pretty much the same center right state it's been for 50 years. It's light red when Republicans win and toss up when Democrats win. Arizona and Georgia are also the same as where they were 20 years ago. There are demographic changes which could shake things up but the other side of the argument is that Georgia has never been that far to the right and a one freaking point trend shouldn't be enough to make the left giddy. We've seen potential in Arizona for a long time and it's never happened. It's always "just a couple elections away." North Carolina should become a toss up before too long and Virginia will become purplish blue to light blue.

I love it...

Barfag's next post: "Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years."

As much as I love to highlight barfbag's stupidity, he was actually just attempting to quote cope1989's post, but failed...

[PolitiJunkie]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

Not a chance Florida moves left of center. It's pretty much the same center right state it's been for 50 years. It's light red when Republicans win and toss up when Democrats win. Arizona and Georgia are also the same as where they were 20 years ago. There are demographic changes which could shake things up but the other side of the argument is that Georgia has never been that far to the right and a one freaking point trend shouldn't be enough to make the left giddy. We've seen potential in Arizona for a long time and it's never happened. It's always "just a couple elections away." North Carolina should become a toss up before too long and Virginia will become purplish blue to light blue.

I love it...

Barfag's next post: "Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years."

As much as I love to highlight barfbag's stupidity, he was actually just attempting to quote cope1989's post, but failed...

My stupidity?

Come on bro, I was defending you. Gotta cut your losses man.

[PolitiJunkie]

but the state is changing

You're right, it is changing. The heavily Democratic urban areas and the Democratic-leaning suburbs that surround them are increasing in population, and the rural conservative areas are decreasing in population. Good insight barfbag, "but the state is changing" (I could almost hear you say this in the voice of a whining child telling his mom "but I wannnnnnt it") was a really thoughtful and intelligent response to DS0816's long and strong analysis.

[PolitiJunkie]

Re: Where do the states fall?

RED: Republican (139)
LIGHT RED: Lean Republican (52)
YELLOW: Bellwether/Battleground/Competitive (84)
LIGHT BLUE: Lean Democratic (21)
BLUE: Democratic (242)

Those with "Leans" may become flipped by the opposing party's prevailing candidate if a national margin of victory were to be strong enough to pull in ones with such opposing tilt. In an election won the party with that tilt…the state will carry.

This map is partly assuming that both parties will continue their stupid "competitive" campaigns of only focusing on perceived "battlegrounds." Since after the 1980s, the most states won a given presidential election were the 32 carried with first election, in 1992, by Bill Clinton.

Note: On the prevailing side, since the 1990s, Republicans have averaged 9 electoral votes (for George W. Bush) with all states carried; Democrats have averaged 11 (Clinton) and 13 and 12 (Barack Obama) electoral votes with all states carried. On the losing side, Republicans averaged 9 (George Bush), 8 (Bob Dole and Mitt Romney), and 7 (John McCain) electoral votes with all states carried; Democrats averaged 13 electoral votes (Al Gore and John Kerry) with all states carried.

lol @ your ridiculous emphasis on the binary outcomes of a few Presidential races. There's no other way to call PA "Democratic" but Indiana only "Leans Republican" when PA is consistently only point or two more Democratic than the national average but Indiana significantly more Republican, other than to cherrypick 1992 as a starting date and conclude the Democrats' strength since then represents somewhat more than noise.

Translation of Nichlemn's post:

Yeah well, even though Pennsylvania has been more consistently Democratic in the last several elections than Indiana has been consistently Republican, that shouldn't be reflected in the map because, well, you know...

[PolitiJunkie]

I usually just like using Safe, Likely, and Lean. I think using too many categories kind of blurs the message. But here's the map I'd make if I were using Safe, Solid, Likely, Lean, and Tilt (I tried to make an atlas map but with so many categories, it was hard to distinguish between the shading).

Safe D                     Solid D                    Likely D                  Lean D               Tilt D

Washington DC       New Jersey            Maine Statewide       ME-02                 Pennsylvania
Hawaii                    Connecticut           Oregon                     Nevada                Wisconsin
Vermont                 Illinois                   New Mexico              Michigan              New Hampshire
New York                Washington                                          Minnesota
Rhode Island           ME-01
Maryland
Massachusetts
California
Delaware

Pure Toss-Up

Virginia
Colorado
Ohio
Iowa

Tilt R                      Lean R                Likely R                Solid R                           Safe R

Florida                     Georgia              NE-02                  Texas                            Utah
North Carolina         Arizona               Indiana                Alaska                           Wyoming
                              Missouri               Montana              South Carolina              Oklahoma
                                                                                    NE-01                           Idaho
                                                                                    Mississippi                      Nebraska Statewide
                                                                                    Louisiana                       NE-03
                                                                                    North Dakota                 Alabama
                                                                                    South Dakota                 Kansas
                                                                                    West Virginia
                                                                                    Arkansas
                                                                                    Kentucky
                                                                                    Tennessee

The more interesting conversation is what will change over the next decade or two. My take is that Virginia and Colorado will shift left from pure toss-up to Tilt/Lean D. Florida and North Carolina will shift left to pure toss-up, while Pennsylvania will shift right to pure toss-up. Without Hillary or other regional favorites on the ballot, most of the Solid R states will shift right to Safe R: Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia, and the Dakotas. Mississippi, South Carolina, and Louisiana will shift slightly left to Likely R, whereas Alaska and Texas will shift a bit more left, eventually landing at Lean R and Tilt R respectively. I don't think Indiana, Montana, or Missouri will move much, remaining as Likely R, Likely R, and Lean R respectively, but Georgia and Arizona will, becoming Tilt R for a while and eventually pure toss-up. New Hampshire will gradually shift leftward from column to column, flirting with Lean D for a while, but eventually shoring up the Democratic coalition with social liberals in the Northeast as Likely or Solid D. Wisconsin will probably remain in Tilt D, but Minnesota and Michigan will shift rightward to join it in Tilt D, whereas Nevada and New Mexico will shift leftward to end up in Likely/Solid D. Oregon and Maine will also shift leftward a bit to cozy up with the likes of Connecticut and Washington in Solid D. Illinois will shift rightward a bit, out of Solid D into Likely/Lean D. Of course, all of this is barring a massive realignment, in which case everything I just said is irrelevant.

So based on that paragraph, here is the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

And also based on that paragraph (and this is a bit less accurate/important), here is the map of whether states are shifting just a little bit/one category (lightly shaded), or substantially/2+ categories (darkly shaded):

Don't read too much into the second map though.

[PolitiJunkie]

the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

[PolitiJunkie]

the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

I agree with MI but I have no idea about MN. I also think that MS won't see much of a D trend other than slight changes in the makeup of the electorate.

I messed up Louisiana by the way; I see it going slowly and slightly left with Mississippi.

[PolitiJunkie]

the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

I agree with MI but I have no idea about MN. I also think that MS won't see much of a D trend other than slight changes in the makeup of the electorate.

So PA is further to the left than MS is to the right?

Where in the WORLD did I imply that? MS is further right than PA is left. I'm predicting MS will move a bit to the left, and PA will move a bit to the right. MS will remain further right than PA is left.

[PolitiJunkie]

INA  AWORLLD WHERE THERE WASNT THE VOTER FRAUDS< AND WHERE ELECTIONS WERE DECIDED BY TAHE VOTERS RATHER THAN MOTORCYCLE GANGS INTRIMIDATING GOD-FEARING CONSERVATIVES AT TEH POLLS, AND BROWN ONES BEING BUSSED IN FROM SOUTH SIDE & QUEENS TO ALL THE STATES TO CHANGE THE VOTE!!!

Safe R: Georgia       Texas               Utah  North Carolina         Arizona               Indiana                Alaska                           Wyoming
                              Missouri               Montana              South Carolina              Oklahoma
                                                                                                            Idaho
                                                                                    Mississippi                      Nebraska
                                                                                    Louisiana                 
                                                                                    North Dakota                 Alabama
                                                                                    South Dakota                 Kansas
                                                                                    West Virginia
                                                                                    Arkansas
                                                                                    Kentucky
                                                                                    Tennessee

Likely R: Floriada, Iowa, Ohiom, Colorado, Virginia

Lean R: PAenslyvania, WI, NH,

Toss-Up : Nevad,a Micihgan, maine, minnesota, oregon, new mexico, new jersey, washington, connecticut

Lean Democrap: Illinois, Delawae,' hode island,

Likely D: DC, hawaii, enw york, maryland, califronia, machusets

safe D: Vermont

I tried to go through and bold the funniest parts, but it ended up being that only like 10 states were non-bolded.