New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, & Wisconsin

[PolitiJunkie]

The 2014 gubernatorial elections look promising for the Democrats. Democrats have the opportunity to pick up the Governorship in many blue and purple states in which Republicans were elected due to the Tea Party Wave of 2010, some of which are unpopular now.

Backtracking to 2013, Virginia looks like a promising Democratic pickup. For our purposes, let's count Lincoln Chafee as a Democrat, because he aligns with the Democrats on most issues now, and there is little chance of a Republican gaining the RI Governorship in 2014 (the three major possibilities are Chafee winning reelection as an independent, Chafee winning reelection as a Democrat, or a Democratic candidate defeating independent Chafee). If McAuliffe wins VA in 2013, that would bring the gubernatorial breakdown to 21 Democrats and 29 Republicans.

Maine, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan all look very promising for the Democrats in 2014, with the last two looking to be near Democratic locks. If the Democrats were to win these four races, that would make the breakdown 25-25, an even split.

Now, that does not account for some intangibles. There is the off chance that Democrats could pick up in Arizona and Georgia; despite both states being red, in each state, either the GOP field (Arizona) or the incumbent (Georgia) looks weak. Those are both Lean R races now, but not GOP locks. There is also the potential for Republican pickups in Connecticut (unpopular Democratic governor barely elected in 2010), Massachusetts (outgoing Democratic governor; GOP field looks stronger than Dem field, and one possible candidate, Scott Brown, is very popular in the state), and Arkansas (term-limited Democrat with strong candidates on both sides). There is also Illinois, where Pat Quinn is highly unpopular. If Quinn were to be renominated, the race would either be toss-up or Lean R depending on the Republican candidate, but there is a high chance that Bill Daley (already declared) or Lisa Madigan (hasn't said anything) could defeat Quinn in the Democratic Primary, in which case the race would Lean D (with Daley) or be Safe D (with Madigan).


However, there are some Republican Governors elected to blue or purple states that are doing quite well and have found popularity in their state. These Governors are Susana Martinez in blue New Mexico, Terry Branstad in light blue Iowa, Brian Sandoval in light blue Nevada, John Kasich in purple Ohio, and Scott Walker in light blue Wisconsin. To me, Walker, Martinez, and Sandoval look completely safe. In Ohio and Iowa, the races once seemed like toss-ups to me- the possibility of the ousted Governors or another popular Democrat defeating these Republicans seemed high- but now, Branstad and Kasich are also starting to look safe.

So, my question, after all that analysis, is:

Will the 2014 gubernatorial races in Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and New Mexico be competitive?

[PolitiJunkie]

Cutler who would have been an Indy senator had Collins retired is gonna cost Dems Maine. If a top tier candidate runs against walker, it will be competitive. Feingold is gonna pass and take on vulnerable Johnson. Madigan, she should of declared before Daley did. Now daley has the edge with support from Rahm. Should opt for senate. Ark is toast and Deal and Haley are slam dunks. 23d-27gop.

So you are saying Democrats pick up only Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, and Republicans pick up Arkansas? That would equal out to 23 D/27 R.

The Maine situation is unfortunate. LePage is losing every single two-way race with a Democrat, but he is winning every single three-way race with Cutler and a Democrat. Perhaps the Democrats won't field a candidate (or they will field a very weak one) and they can support Cutler so he can win.

[PolitiJunkie]

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Are we talking about the same RI? Rhode Island is certainly loyal to the Democratic Party, but it is far from liberal. Chafee is trying to run the state as a liberal and is being crucified for it. When he runs in the Democratic primary he's going to get a challenge from the right via Gina Raimondo, our treasurer.

Yes. I understand all that. And I know RI has had many successful Republican Governors. And I know how unpopular Chafee is. All I'm saying is that under the specific Rhode Island circumstances of 2014, it is unlikely that a Republican will become Governor. Most likely, Chafee will lose the Democratic primary to Raimondo, who will win the election.