Redistricting victims next cycle. (user search)
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  Redistricting victims next cycle. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Redistricting victims next cycle.  (Read 10747 times)
palandio
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,028


« on: October 17, 2018, 02:34:39 PM »

Pennsylvania:
-I could see Lamb being sacrificed (there's no way to  make 2 Dem-leaning seats out of the Pitt area without ugliness in the lines/tearing across counties...besides, this will clear the way for him to take on Toomey in 2022)
[...]
The new PA-17 is R+3, i.e. clearly not Dem-leaning.

It is possible to draw a Likely D district which is fully in Allegheny County and includes Pittsburgh plus Northern and Western suburbs, and a toss-up district which includes the remaining Eastern and Southern suburbs plus Washington County and some adjacent areas along the Monongahela. Sadly DRA doesn't work for me anymore, so I cannot prove it, but the idea should be quite clear.
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palandio
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,028


« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2018, 10:23:35 AM »

-MN is an odd state, with all three rural areas being represented by Ds. That wont last, however. With a likely D governor and possible trifecta, the results will likely be beneficial to the Dems. The concentration of the suburban seats in the Twin cities, with MN-06 serving as an R vote sink for the area. If a district had to go, it would be MN-07, with the seat being split between the other two rural areas. This would likely make the two rather hard to win for the Dems, so its possible some parts of the D suburbs may be put into MN-08 to keep at least 1 swing district.
The area from Clay County northwards is actually the most Dem friendly part of MN-07. A successor of MN-08 that includes this area, but excludes Morrison County and Wadena County, would actually be slightly more Dem friendly than the old MN-08.
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