Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Famous Mortimer]

The far-right religious parties like Shaked more than Bennet, which is funny.

[Famous Mortimer]

Labor will pass the threshold and they will bounce back to become the largest left-of-center party in the next election after this one. Calling it now.

[Famous Mortimer]

Ok, so this is it: Meretz and Barak are uniting, as well as Stav Shaffir. Shaffir will be placed 2nd, Yair Golan (Democratic Israel) 3rd and Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel) 7th. Barak, and this is interesting, gave up on a realistic place and will be 10th, probably in exchange for a first choice of a Ministry if the party joins the next government. Him being pushed back is likely because of the Epstein issue that made Meretz reluctant. Top 10:

1. Horovits (Meretz)
2. Shaffir (Labour)
3. Yair Golan (Democratic Israel)
4. Tamar Zandberg (Meretz)
5. Ilan Gilon (Meretz)
6. Isawi Farij (Meretz)
7. Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel), possibly someone else from the party
8. Yael Cohen Paran (Green Movement, comes with Shaffir)
9. Democratic Israel representative (I'd wager Yaya Fink)
10. Ehud Barak (Democratic Israel)
11. A Shaffir reserved spot

It'll be named, as Hnv1 called already, "the Democratic Camp". Shocking.

no. 9 will be Noa Rotman, the granddaughter.

a/ legally unsure how Shaffir is going to move here. She needs another Labour MK to officially split without a sanction

Can she argue that the Democratic Camp is a new party so it's not as if she's switching directly from Labor to Meretz?

[Famous Mortimer]

New Right, Jewish Home, the Jewish Home's ally the National Union/Tkuma, and Otzma Yehudit have agreed to a join list headed by New Right's new leader Ayelet Shaked.

The list so far will be:

1. Ayelet Shaked (New Right)
2. Rafi Peretz (Jewish Home)
3. Betzalel Smotrich (National Union/Tkuma)
4. Naftali Bennett (New Right)

Full list to be announced later.

This is one of the larger right-wing configurations imaginable. It was previously thought that perhaps only Jewish Home (along with National Union) would ally with Otzma or that only Otzma would ally with New Right.

Instead all three parties will run together.

Only significant party to be left out is Moshe Feiglin's Zehut, which has said it will run alone.

The right-wing alliances has offered Zehut a space on their list though.

[Famous Mortimer]

Just a tally of the alliances so far:

Likud-Kulanu
Israel Resilience Party-Yesh Atid-Telem
Labor-Gesher
Meretz-Democratic Israel-Green Movement
New Right-Jewish Home-National Union/Tkuma-Otzma Yehudit
Hadash-United Arab List-Balad-Ta'al

[Famous Mortimer]

Hmmm

Now conflicting reports about whether or not Otzma Yehudit is actually part of the alliance or not. Bennett said he wanted them in the alliance (said the same thing about Zehut) but they didn't respond apparently.

Otzma Yehudit also announced an alliance with the anti-gay Noam party, which seems to suggest they are planning to run on their own.

[Famous Mortimer]

I have a question about something that's so small and insignificant that the Israeli press hasn't bothered to talk about it in English (which is saying something because they usually translate everything), nevertheless, as a politics nerd I am interested and hopefully some Israeli here can answer for me:

Eli Ben-Dahan and his Ahi party, who are they allied with now, if anyone? Are they part of Likud still? Are they part of the Jewish Home? Are they part of Otzma?

[Famous Mortimer]

I have a question about something that's so small and insignificant that the Israeli press hasn't bothered to talk about it in English (which is saying something because they usually translate everything), nevertheless, as a politics nerd I am interested and hopefully some Israeli here can answer for me:

Eli Ben-Dahan and his Ahi party, who are they allied with no, if anyone? Are they part of Likud still? Are they part of the Jewish Home? Are they part of Otzma?

Ahi was just a vehicle for Ben Dahan to be put in the Likud list as part of the grand URWP deal- he's otherwise part of the JH list, so he'll be placed in the UR list (probably in the 13th place if I had to guess).

Can he though? Or will that violate the party switching rule?

Or are they just going to throw out the party switching rule since you can game it by resurrecting a dead minor party and forming "an alliance" with a major party.

[Famous Mortimer]

Where are bougie leftist Ashkenazis going to immigrate to when Israel becomes a fascist state?

[Famous Mortimer]

Who did he expel? Anyone notable?

[Famous Mortimer]

Also I guess it's safe to say there's going to be a Likud-United Right-Shas-UTJ-Labor government or maybe just Likud-United Right-Shas-UTJ-Gesher+Peretz government, but that should be enough for a majority.

[Famous Mortimer]

Stav Shaffir forced to resign her seat in order to run with Meretz. She will be replaced in the lame duck Knesset by Merav Michaeli.

[Famous Mortimer]

Alright, where da **** da goddamn lists??

[Famous Mortimer]

This day in "Israel is getting crazier every day":
1. The Kahanist party Otzma, which demonizes the Arab and LGBTQ Israelis every single day, has requested the election committee to ban Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid from running because of his "demonization and racism" towards the ultra-orthodox population. Yes, the people who praise mass-murderer Baruch Goldstein accuse Lapid of racism.
2. Yigal Amir, the murderer of Yitzhak Rabin, has been contacting far-right figures from his prison cell about founding a new party aimed at releasing him from prison and, of course, taking the media away from "the left". He contacted a known far-right rapper who strongly refused him, for example, but the fact that the PM's murderer is trying to influence the political map from prison is by itself horrifying. As a side note, the basis for the movement to release him is a group of a few hundred Russian Israelis. It seems to me like on every issue, Russian Israeli activists are always somehow at the most extreme, racist and homophobic side. It makes me feel shame and disgust.

Interestingly, Yigal's brother Hagi, who was an accomplice and is still proud of his role in the assassination, now backs a single, non-confessional state and thinks Jews will not be able to survive in the Land of Israel unless they grant this to the Arabs:

https://972mag.com/hagai-amir-i-dont-regret-rabins-murder-because-you-cant-regret-a-mitzvah/55027/

[Famous Mortimer]

Haim Katz (Likud) will resign from the government due to corruption charges.

Deri will face corruption charges soon. So will Litzman.

Basically most of Bibi’s bloc would want an “immunity” government.


Bibi reportedly marked Ron Dramer (ambassador to Washington) and Yossi Cohen (head of the mossad) as possible successors. The move is superficial is neither can be elected PM anytime soon. But he’s signaling the Likud big dogs what he thinks of them (quite rightly)

If anyone wanted evidence of why Israel is basically an Arab country with a Jewish demographic majority, the fact that tribal identity trumps even the most grotesque forms of corruption for so many voters would be it. Haredim and most right wing voters not only do not value Western democracy, but most actually outright mock it as sissified (and even goyish) liberalism that fails in a region where only brute force supposedly works.

Ashkenazis better than Arabs and Mizrahis

but Africans and Arabs are better than Italians

Trying to keep track of the walmart shopper ethnic hierarchy is hard

[Famous Mortimer]

Can someone post the first 10 or 15 people on the Labor list in English? Can't seem to find it anywhere on the internet.

[Famous Mortimer]

Last time Blue and White were just going to offer to make Sa'ar Prime Minister and see if any other Likudniks voted for him. They could go through with that plan.

Alternatively, how soon could Likud hold leadership elections if Bibi agreed to step down in the face of a hung parliament?

Could there be a caretaker government headed by Bibi, Sa'ar, and someone else while Likud elects a new Prime Minister?

Would Blue and White be willing to back a Likud Prime Minister who was a proxy for Bibi but not Bibi?

[Famous Mortimer]

The "keep but modify" position advocated by some in Blue and White and Labor usually involves adding an extra clause that it's also the nation state of Israeli Druze.

[Famous Mortimer]

Will Zehut still appear on the ballot?

[Famous Mortimer]

I suppose if Blue and White comes out ahead, Gantz can be PM for the first two years and that will give Likud time to elect a new leader to serve as PM for the following 2 years (not that the government won't collapse before then).

If Likud comes in first though (which seems likely), it's gonna be a sh!t show.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think if Likud comes in first and Blue and White second but there's no majority for the right, Likud will split. The only question is whether the pro-Netanyahu or anti-Netanyahu faction gets to be called Likud.

[Famous Mortimer]

If Bibi loses he can flee to the United States. Israel has an extradition agreement with Israel but he can just claim to be fleeing political oppression and Trump will refuse to extradite him, not as if Israel doesn't violate the agreement all the time to protect various Jewish American deadbeat dads and/or sex criminals. Biden would also probably refuse to extradite Bibi and if worse comes to worst he can just hide behind a human barricade of Boomers like Hamas hiding behind a bunch of school kids.

[Famous Mortimer]

A significant number of MKs live in settlements.

[Famous Mortimer]

How the hell are you all taking the test? You all speak Hebrew?

[Famous Mortimer]

Uri Lupolianski, a member of United Torah Judaism, was mayor of Jerusalem from 2003 to 2008. They have always been a major party there.

Tel Aviv is similarly ideologically lop sided. Their mayoral elections are usually Labor vs Meretz or Labor vs Hadash.