Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Agreed.

I remember last election when the Arabs and the kibbutz movement threatened to break away because they didn't like Shelly's leadership. Didn't happen.

[Famous Mortimer]

Herzog's appeal is based entirely on being "not Netanyahu" so maybe this won't effect him. Bowing to Livni makes him look weak as hell though and it highlights how power hungry Livni is. Doesn't look good in my view.

[Famous Mortimer]

Seriously, I don't get Livni's deal.

It's not like Israeli politicians don't frequently come back from irrelevancy (Sharon, Bibi, Barack, Peretz). If she would just settle the F down, fly below the radar for a couple of cycles, she might be able to ride back in on a white horse.

Instead she just makes herself look desperate by constantly seeking power.

I'm probably jinxing myself though and she'll end up becoming PM.

[Famous Mortimer]

Meretz changed their name back because Yachad means "poison" in Russian.

[Famous Mortimer]

I know it's just a platitude but breaking down the barriers between secular and religious sounds like an odd appeal from a party that is presumably trying to persuade Tekuma to join on the grounds that the Jewish Home isn't pious enough.

[Famous Mortimer]

Labor MP Avishay Braverman will not run for re-election.

[Famous Mortimer]

Labor is trying to get Manuel Trajtenberg as their new resident economics expert.

Of course he's already being courted by Kahlon as well. I think that's where he'll end up going (if he runs at all) because he'll get a higher slot and is more likely to get a ministry that way.

I think if Herzog insists on having an economics wonk, it will probably end up being that Sephardic guy who was like number 13 or something on Livni's list last time whose name I can't remember. So no one good.

[Famous Mortimer]

Trajtenberg is getting the spot people thought was going to Mofaz?

[Famous Mortimer]

I would actually think he had a much better chance at being Finance Minister with Kahlon.

Labor might form a coalition but they will need so many partners they are unlikely to have any of the big posts. Foreign, Defense, and Finance will all have to go to coalition partners.

[Famous Mortimer]

More news on the lame duck Knesset:

Yisrael Hasson officially resigned and was replaced by the 6th person on the Kadima list, Yuval Zellner, a former Laborite best known for briefly replacing Tzipi Livni when she resigned after losing the Kadima leadership to Shaul Mofaz.

Former MKs Yohanan Plesner, Ronit Tirosh, and Shai Hermesh all opted not to bother taking the seat.

Also, and I'm surprised this didn't get more coverage, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer resigned for health reasons. It had been in the cards for a while but I'm surprised he didn't just finish his term.

The next person on the Labor list was appropriately Danny Atar, a protege of Ben-Eliezer. Like the Kadima members though, he opted not to take the seat and it was instead given to the next person on the list, Labor's top Arab Raleb Majadele. I wonder if he opted out for his own reasons or if Labor pressured him to get an Arab MK again.

[Famous Mortimer]

Former Ambassador to the US Michael Oren has joined Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu, the first notable person to do so, as far as I can tell.

[Famous Mortimer]

Another long shot Likud primary candidate:

Corrupt businessman and vote buying former MK Shmuel Flatto-Sharon, who was elected as an independent* to the Knesset way back in 1977.

*Yes, he ran as an independent under a party list system, actually won enough votes for 2 seats, and had to forgo the second one.

[Famous Mortimer]

A big corruption scandal involving Israel Beitenu (surprise surprise) with deputy minister Kirshenbaum, former minister Maszhinkov and many party politicos involved. Liberman is trying to break to the centre this might make him re-break to the right again

I doubt this will have much effect at all. Kirshenbaum and Maszhinkov are faceless seatfillers. Lieberman will simply not reappoint them to realistic spots when he makes up his list.

[Famous Mortimer]

Do the Likud typically reserve seats for minorities/non-Jews?

If so, Ayoob Kara probably has a good shot.

Likud didn't need him last time because Beytenu provided their own token Druze.

[Famous Mortimer]

Not important but interesting:

Former Knesset Speaker and briefly Labor Party leader Avraham Burg has kinda sorta endorsed Hadash.

http://www.i24news.tv/en/opinion/53920-141209-my-message-to-the-arabs-of-israel

Not really surprising. I remember a few years ago he was planning to launch his own Arab-Jewish unity party but it never got off the ground.

[Famous Mortimer]

Rabbi Ehud Bandel ran last time too and did horribly.

[Famous Mortimer]

So, will five of those ten people running for the 2-6 bracket just not end up on the list? That hardly seems like a fair system.

They'll end up on the list, just not in a realistic spot. They'll be in the 17th-120th spots.

[Famous Mortimer]

Are people talking about who will win the Likud primary (ie the number 2 spot) yet?

Presumably Erdan should get it pretty easily, since he's consistently been the top vote getter of the people still running.

He's always struck me as very generic though. I don't understand his appeal. Is there a chance Dannon could win? Netanyahu would have to be scared of that, right?

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the overall mood in Likud right now? Is it going to be like last time where there was a slaughter of the moderates?

[Famous Mortimer]

What moderates are there left to slaughter?

True enough.

It would still be unpleasant for Netanyahu though, if Danon and Feiglin went up on the list and his own favored candidates stayed static or went down.

Apparently Netanyahu favors Akunis, Hanegbi and Hotovely.

[Famous Mortimer]

How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't know if Moledet still exists but the guy who was their leader, American born Uri Bank, is running in the Jewish Home primaries. He seems to be running a serious campaign as well. Last time he didn't really try and ended up like 20th on the Jewish Home list.

Also, I don't think Ya'akov Katz was a member of Moledet, I know it was reported but I think it was wrong. I think he wasn't a member of any particular faction within the National Union.

[Famous Mortimer]

Deri resigned the Knesset!

[Famous Mortimer]

Did he announce he was resigning the Knesset at the same time as he tried to step down as party leader?

It was my understanding that he asked to resign as party leader, that request was rejected by the Torah Scholars or whatever, and now he's gone over their head by resigning the Knesset.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think the most surprising development in Israeli politics in the last decade is that no one defected from Yesh Atid.