Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

13 Arab members in the outgoing Knesset.

Looks like there will be 16 in the upcoming Knesset.

1 Druze from Likud, 1 Muslim and 1 Druze from Labor, 1 Muslim from Meretz, plus 12 out of 13 from the Joint List.

Those numbers are unlikely to change. Unless the joint list wins more or Betenyu wins one more and gets their Druze re-elected.

[Famous Mortimer]

13 Arab members in the outgoing Knesset.

Looks like there will be 16 in the upcoming Knesset.

1 Druze from Likud, 1 Muslim and 1 Druze from Labor, 1 Muslim from Meretz, plus 12 out of 13 from the Joint List.

Those numbers are unlikely to change. Unless the joint list wins more or Betenyu wins one more and gets their Druze re-elected.

Any Christians?

2. Re-elected Balad MK Basel Ghattas is one. Also, Aida Touma-Sliman, the number two from Hadash, is a woman from the Christian community. Being a Communist, I am unsure if she is practicing.

There were only two in the last Knesset as well, Ghattas and another Hadash MK Hana Sweid, although he was not a member of Communist Party and was definitely a believer.

[Famous Mortimer]

After 234K votes (%):

Likud: 25.76
ZU: 19.28
YA: 8.05
JH: 7.47
Kulanu: 7.43
Lieberman: 6.27
JL: 6.21
Shas: 5.96
Meretz: 4.34
UTJ: 3.95
Yachad: 3.39

Did you mean to include a percentage there?

[Famous Mortimer]

Ah. Like what percentage of the vote is that though?

[Famous Mortimer]

Is the exit poll track record with predicting Arab turnout/numbers any different from their track record with the country as a whole?

What I'm asking is, and I know it's not likely, but is there any chance Joint List ends up getting like 16 seats because pollsters weren't paying attention to those areas?

[Famous Mortimer]

So would it be fair to say Netanyahu's rightward shift worked?

It worked in that it made Likud the largest party. I didn't much increase the right's overall vote though.

[Famous Mortimer]

Could somebody please explain to me what the hell Netanyahu's appeal is? His specifically, not the Israeli right's in general. I've heard references to 'rallying around the flag' in relation to this in the past, but rallying around the flag only happens if there's a feeling of imminent crisis. Currently all of Israel's traditional enemies are actually cobelligerents against a common foe (ISIS), yet part of Netanyahu's platform seems to be refusing to even try to take advantage of this. Is he just keeping Israel, or a large enough segment of the Israeli population to keep electing him, in a state of perpetual perceived peril? (Immediate peril, not long-term peril; the latter is actually a reasonable understanding of Israel's situation.) If so, how?

Why do you assume the general appeal of the Israeli right is not enough?

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm beyond shocked that not only is Yesh Atid still a thing, it's actually coming in third.

[Famous Mortimer]

Ok. Just got to accept Netanyahu is PM, and Israel will continued to be isolated.

So does this spell the end of Herzog? Netanyahu's personality completely dominated the election. I think the Left needs someone more charismatic/stronger than Herzog, as much as Herzog is a good man imo. Any Israelis have anyone is mind? Someone Netanyahu can't bully. I don't think a younger politician more focused on social issues would work.

Party constitution says there has to be a leadership election within 8 months after an election if they don't join the government. Even if they do join the government though, that will also make a leadership challenge likely, especially since Herzog is already on the right of his caucus.

The options at this point are either Yachimovich or some random general.

So they might as well stick with Herzog.

[Famous Mortimer]

Ok. Just got to accept Netanyahu is PM, and Israel will continued to be isolated.

So does this spell the end of Herzog? Netanyahu's personality completely dominated the election. I think the Left needs someone more charismatic/stronger than Herzog, as much as Herzog is a good man imo. Any Israelis have anyone is mind? Someone Netanyahu can't bully. I don't think a younger politician more focused on social issues would work.

Party constitution says there has to be a leadership election within 8 months after an election if they don't join the government. Even if they do join the government though, that will also make a leadership challenge likely, especially since Herzog is already on the right of his caucus.

The options at this point are either Yachimovich or some random general.

So they might as well stick with Herzog.

[Famous Mortimer]

UTJ with 6 probably.

[Famous Mortimer]

What did the surplus agreements end up being?

[Famous Mortimer]

JL at 12.5 quotas. A little extra push and the 14th seat may be in sight (to be taken from either YB or UTJ).

Will be interested to see what the results would have been had JL agreed to the vote share agreement with Meretz.

[Famous Mortimer]

Kahlon gets Economics Ministry. Likud keeps the big ones. Everyone else gets crap ministries like construction or religious affairs. Probably.

[Famous Mortimer]

A coalition with just Likud, Labor, and one other is not possible. The Labor caucus is too far to the left, they will eventually rebel.

He needs the ultra-Orthodox at least and he always wants them.

[Famous Mortimer]

They won't want THEIR OWN state, they will want the whole state.

I wouldn't be surprised if they got it in the next 10 years either.

[Famous Mortimer]

Israelis are not choosing perpetual war over peace. They choose war because they do not think peace is possible, they do not think the Palestinians will ever make peace. It's a reasonable belief.

[Famous Mortimer]

So Labor didn't elect their Druze after all but Yisrael Beytenu did.

[Famous Mortimer]

What is Kulanu's position regarding settlements and the peace process? And on economic policy? Any chance that they could be an effective moderating force?

Peace: Hypothetically for land for peace but didn't campaign on it. Economics: Orthodox right-wing but they make en effort to say they don't hate poor people. It would be the left-wing of a right-wing coalition but I don't know how much influence it would have. I imagine most of their efforts will go economics though. They did not campaign on the peace process.

[Famous Mortimer]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

You mean Shas and UTJ were open to supporting a Left-wing government over a Centre-Right one when both were a possibility? I wouldn't have thought.

They only would have done it if Labor came in first place. They'll go along with the plurality winner because they just want to be in power regardless. They aren't going to act as kingmaker for a runner up though, that would be seen as showing too much favor to that party and hurt future relations with the other.

[Famous Mortimer]

Formalities at this point but Rivlin asked Netanyahu to form a coalition.

The parties that recommended Netanyahu to Rivlin were Likud, The Jewish Home, Shas, Yisrael Beytenu, Kulanu, and United Torah Judaism. As you would expect, although it wasn't totally impossible that Kulanu and Beytenu could have recommended no one, so there's that.

Only Labor and Meretz recommended Herzog.

The Joint List and Yesh Atid made no commendation.

Formal negotiations are apparently taking longer than people would have like (even though it's only been a week). Rivlin has reported told Netanyahu to speed it up. Also, Jewish Home MK Motti Yogev proposed a bill shrinking the allotted time for negotiations from 28 to 21 days.

Former Likud MK Gideon Saar (who you may remembered toyed with the idea of a leadership challenge to Netanyahu) said he has sources who tell him Bibi is still trying to put together a national unity government with Labor. If that's true though, I suspect it's just a means of putting pressure on The Jewish Home to be more pliable.

[Famous Mortimer]

Incumbent MKs who lost re-election:

Likud: None.

Labor: Moshe Mizrahi (random low ranking on list), Raleb Majadele (low ranking after failing to get the most votes among Arabs)

Joint List: None

Yesh Atid: Ruth Calderon (this is sad, she had proposed making the national anthem less Jewy), Pnina Tamano-Shata (Ethiopian lady), Yifat Kariv, Dov Lipman (Orthodox rabbi who didn't except to get in even last time), Boaz Toporovsky (former head of the Student Union), Ronen Hoffman (former Laborite), Elazar Stern (defector from Hatnuah)

Kulanu: NA, no incumbents

The Jewish Home: Orit Strook (lady from Tekuma, who you may remember was the reason they didn't join Yachad), Shuli Mualem, Avi Wortzman

Yisrael Beytenu: Shimon Ohayon (Sephardic guy), Alex Miller, Leon Litinetski (former Labor MK), Robert Ilatov (sort of, YB didn't win enough seats for him to get re-elected, but the guy ahead of him on the list resigned before the Knesset was sworn in).

United Torah Judaism: Ya'akov Asher

Shas: Avraham Michaeli

Meretz: None

Yachad: Eli Yishai (defected from Shas), Yoni Chetboun (defected from Jewish Home)

I'm only including MKs who were on their party's list and lost re-election, not people who retired. Jewish Home, Shas, and Yisrael Beytenu may look like they weren't hit that hard but it's only because a lot of their MKs decided to forgo running at all.

[Famous Mortimer]

In addition to Ilan Shochat (who is now being investigated for corruption) I understand former minister Perry from YA might resign as well.

That's more like the Knesset I know and love.

I remember the last Knesset went without needing a replacement MK for like 2 years. It was actually a record in Israeli history.

If Peri resigns, this one won't have even gone a month (I'm not couting Schocat from YB though because he wasn't even sworn in).

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, if Peri resigns, Elazar Stern is next on the YA list.

[Famous Mortimer]

What would happen if there was an early election? Beytenu would be out of the Knesset. Probably Meretz too. Would Jewish Home be punished further for not cooperating? Could we see a return to the 80s where Labor and Likud are getting like 80% of the vote together?