Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

So Kadima is effectively a Druze vote bank now? Remarkable.

Funnily enough, Kadima is apparently the first-ever majority-Jewish party with Knesset representation to be led by an Arab, even if that is right before its untimely doom.

...it's not really a Druze party of any kind, but putting Hasson in charge is very probably a gimmick to try to increase Druze support for the party. It might've worked with the old threshold, but I doubt they can get to 3.25% (though it seems Hasson may be negotiating with Kachlon; he might still be worth 1.5%-2% or so, which is not worthless).

The top four of the list (it goes on for a while, but everyone after #4 is hopelessly obscure and has no chance anyway):
1. Fmr MK Akram Hasson (2012-2013; Druze)
2. Fmr MK Doron Avital (2011-2013)
3. Fmr Givatayim Mayor Reuven Ben-Shahar
4. MK Yuval Zellner (2012-2013; 2014-present)

So officially Eyal Ben Reuven is a member of Hatnuah? From Meretz to Hatnuah...

I think Ben-Reuven is more concerned with his political career than his ideological beliefs.

Mofaz didn't resign the Knesset though, did he? Is Hasson going to be an MK for like a month?

Kadima won a lot of Druze votes in the last election. Also Mofaz beat Livni because a lot of Arab and Druze votes. I believe that's why Sibboleth made that comment. There is a history with Kadima and the Druze.

[Famous Mortimer]

Like the Indian Ahmadis? Weird. Apparently there's only 2000 of them in Israel. Is he ethnically Indian?

[Famous Mortimer]

Two new polls

Channel 2

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Panels/Knesset Channe

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Totally missed these post-Arab merger polls. 12 isn't a very big jump. It's only one more than they usually get. If they do that poorly, I can't imagine the alliance lasting long.

[Famous Mortimer]

The number of Arabs who still vote for Meretz and Labor would maybe equal one seat in the Knesset between them.

It's mostly that Arabs just don't vote.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think if the Arabs got 20, Labor probably would ally with them but it would cost them votes in the next election. It would take them several cycles to recover. In the meantime, the Arabs would stand a good chance of coming in second, which would be pretty chaotic.

[Famous Mortimer]

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.

[Famous Mortimer]

I assume the religious objection is something like, Jews shouldn't pray there until the Third Temple is built?

[Famous Mortimer]

That makes sense. I know Yishai is an establishment guy but I had a hard time believing he would oppose people going to the Temple Mount for the sake of the Arabs.

[Famous Mortimer]

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.

So in the spirit of this 'freedom' I'm allowed to walk into any church in America and declare my right to pray there?

Tomer Perisco (Jewish religion scholar) already wrote a great essay about this, they want to pray there as a nationalistic sign of sovereignty, religious freedom has nothing to do with it.

Well if it's a church that was built on top of a synagogue...

It should be like the Hagia Sophia.

[Famous Mortimer]

So the top 4 spots on the Yishai/Yachad/HaAm Itanu/Otzma Yehudit list are:

1 Eli Yishai (MK, former Shas)
2 Yoni Chetboun (MK, former Jewish Home)
3 Michael Ayash (appears to be a confidant of Yishai)
4 Baruch Marzel (Otzma Yehudit, former Kach)

Looks like Otzma didn't get much out of this deal since it's unlikely this list will win 4 seats. Also, members of Likud would be stupid to tactically vote for this list since if it somehow did win 4 seats, Netanyahu wouldn't be able to form a coalition with them because of Marzel's presence.

So is Ben-Ari even supporting this list?

[Famous Mortimer]

Are you sure about the 4 seats thing? I thought I read somewhere it was 3.

[Famous Mortimer]

What ended up happening with the soccer guy's spot on the Jewish Home list? Did they just bump everyone up a space?

[Famous Mortimer]

Other fun irrelevancies:

The number 2 on Taleb el-Sana's Arab List is former MK Muhamad Kanan. Kanan was a member of United Arab List who left to establish the Arab National Party, which only made the ballot in one election where it dropped out and endorsed Balad before voting day. He was also involved in the attempt to create an "Arab Center Party" which hoped to draft Labor MK Raleb Majadele as its leader. When Majadele declined, the Arab Center Party also folded into Balad.

I don't think there's anyone else remotely well known on his list.

[Famous Mortimer]

Or couldn't they just split in reality but not officially?

[Famous Mortimer]

How many do you need to establish an official parliamentary group in the Knesset ?

One third if you're breaking away. I don't think there's any limit in terms of parties that get elected but as danny said, you can no longer elect less than 4 people at a time. There have been one man groups in the past.

[Famous Mortimer]

Actually yeah, I think the one third thing is to get funding. Marzel could be his own group but he wouldn't get any government funds next next election.

[Famous Mortimer]

The Arab party is actually just called the Joint List. Wamab is their two letter abbreviation that will appear on the ballot.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, at the last minute, Kadima decided not to file their list.

[Famous Mortimer]

Did he get a spot on the list? He didn't get a realistic one.

[Famous Mortimer]

Oh wow, 12 isn't so bad. Kulanu is definitely the kind of party I could see indecisive Moderate Heroes breaking for at the last minute.

[Famous Mortimer]

According to this:

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Bayit-Yehudi-primary-could-be-postponed-over-transparency-complaints-387643

Akram Hasoon endorsed a Druze candidate in the Jewish Home primary. Just a thing.

[Famous Mortimer]

Panels/Knesset

Likud - 25
Labor/Livini - 24
Jewish Home - 13
United Arab Parties - 12
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 8
UTJ - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beitenu - 5
Racists - 4

Calling Eli Yishai's party "racists" doesn't make sense at all. I suggest you just put "Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma" there.

Well, including a Nazi in the list would have an effect on one's reputation, wouldn't it?

Andrés Manuel López Obrador joined Yishai's party?

[Famous Mortimer]

Polls were pretty stable last time. It was the final results (Yesh Atid in second) that came out of nowhere.

Basically, between the party switching, which ends with the lists being finalized, and the coalition formation, this is going to be a pretty dull thread.

[Famous Mortimer]

How likely is it that a "unity government" with Likud and Labor will be formed, Hnv1? Bibi would of course prefer a right-wing government. It depends on Lieberman and Kachlon. But wouldn't that be a nightmare scenario for Labor?

He would prefer a unity government. Bibi has shown that he doesn't want to be the most the extreme part of his coalition,  he'll definitely try to avoid an all right wing coalition.

Hmm. Interesting thought. It must've been really annoying for him that Uri Ariel used to plan new houses in J&S while he was negotiating with Abu Mazen. But overall, he's had more trouble in the last government - with Yesh Atid and with Livni - than in the government before, I thought.

For Bibi it wouldn't even be that bad, but a unity government might destroy Likud's popularity, although it will probably destroy Labor's popularity even more. That would almost certainly mean new elections within two years.

Why do you think a unity government would destroy Likud's popularity? It was in a unity government with Yesh Atid and it had no effect. It was in a unity government with Mofaz's Kadima and it had no effect. It was in a unity government with Barak's Labor and it had no effect. It was in a unity government under Sharon with Ben-Eliezer's Labor and it had no effect. It's been in a government with a party to its left more often than it's not been.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who would post-Zionists normally vote for if not Meretz?