Bulgaria 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

Takes place May 12th:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_parliamentary_election,_2013

Last poll from April 29:

Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (populist pro-mafia, pro-corruption party) 28.3%
Bulgarian Socialist Party (prototypical Eastern European post-Communist party) 18.7
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (Turkish minority party, the guy who almost got shot is no longer lead, btw) 5.2
Attack (nationalist) 5.2
Movement "Bulgaria of the Citizens" (new Western style conservative party, breakaway from the moribund King Simon II Movement) 4.1
Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (slightly older Western style conservative party, breakaway from UDF)  less than 2%
Union of Democratic Forces (prototypical Eastern European centre-right party that ended Communism but now everyone hates them because of shock therapy) pollster didn't bother to mention them

Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) won the last election but their leader Boyko Borisov was forced to resign earlier this year because of cartoonish corruption. Currently, a caretaker government of former GERBer technocrats is in power.

[Famous Mortimer]

Is the King Simon II Movement still around? I know they changed their name to something more generic but does that party even still exist? Or have they totally changed into the DBG?

[Famous Mortimer]

A relatively close race so far, according to the "temperature" reports:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Apparently, now it's getting warmer around the BSP headquarters (31.7), while around the GERB headquarters it's getting cooler and cloudier (28.6)...
In other news, a mobile listening station has been spotted with equal frequency near Bankya and Buzludzha at 30.4%. 11% claim to have seen the station near the Saray, while 6% have seen it at protests in front of Sofia's mosque. 3% report seeing it in front of SKAT TV and it has been seen with lesser frequency at other places.

Bulgaria has an exit-poll ban until the vote is over, but the news media uses "temperatures" instead ...

Book rankings are also popular on election day. For example, a newspaper is rating comics popularity among their staff.

Care to explain the joke behind that article for those of us who don't speak Bulgarian?

[Famous Mortimer]

Thanks.

So the Movement for Stability and Progress isn't even worth mocking? They did run the country more recently than the UDF.

[Famous Mortimer]

Dumb question: Who is the BSP candidate for Prime Minister? You said it was someone other than Stanishev.

[Famous Mortimer]

Dumb question: Who is the BSP candidate for Prime Minister? You said it was someone other than Stanishev.

Plamen Oresharski, independent and finance minister of the BSP led grand coalition between 2005 and 2009. Rather strange choice for a socialist led coalition, considering  that under his administration one of the lowest flat tax rates in the world was implemented here.

Reminds me of when the Hungarian Socialist Party nominated independent former Finance Minister Péter Medgyessy. Medgyessy did win, so maybe not so weird.

[Famous Mortimer]

Dumb question: Who is the BSP candidate for Prime Minister? You said it was someone other than Stanishev.

Plamen Oresharski, independent and finance minister of the BSP led grand coalition between 2005 and 2009. Rather strange choice for a socialist led coalition, considering  that under his administration one of the lowest flat tax rates in the world was implemented here.

Reminds me of when the Hungarian Socialist Party nominated independent former Finance Minister Péter Medgyessy. Medgyessy did win, so maybe not so weird.

There were valid reasons for this choice, but still it's not something that will attract left-wing voters. Ataka had far more left wing positions and it shows (especially considering that a few months ago had been totally written off).

I remember when Volen Siderov made the presidential run-off election in 2006, one of the few foreign leaders who called to congratulate him was National Bolshevik Party leader Eduard Limonov. If Attack is half as eccentric as the NBP, yeah, they got some left-wing positions here and there.

[Famous Mortimer]

Wikipedia says there was infighting between Stanishev and former president Georgi Purvanov. Is that why they appointed an independent third person as their candidate? Also, what was the nature of the rivalry between Stanishev and Purvanov? Purely personal or was one more left-wing than the other?

[Famous Mortimer]

I was going to ask why a party unambiguously to the left of the BSP (on both economics AND cultural issues) has been unable to emerge. Then I remembered the party from the 90s called the Bulgarian Euroleft. Wouldn't they have fit that bill? The name suggested socially liberal, Green-ish types. What ever happened to them?

[Famous Mortimer]

Wikipedia says there was infighting between Stanishev and former president Georgi Purvanov. Is that why they appointed an independent third person as their candidate? Also, what was the nature of the rivalry between Stanishev and Purvanov? Purely personal or was one more left-wing than the other?

I agree that the infighting played a role why the popular Parvanov was not appointed. Unlike the non-party Oresharski, Parvanov was a member of BSP and could certainly undermine Stanishev from within if he became Prime Minister.
As for the reasons for the rivalry, obviously both think that they're the best possible leaders of BSP. As for whether he was more left-wing, it's difficult to say. Parvanov is more opportunistic, while Stanishev is generally more straightforward when defending his positions (though he's also been capable of compromises with right-wing forces). All in all, I wouldn't say that ideology was the main reason for the conflict between them.

In the news article cited on Wikipedia, Stanishev said that Purvanov would "take the party backwards". That seemed like me to be an illusion to Communism. So I thought maybe Puranov was more left-wing based on that.

[Famous Mortimer]

"Stanishev, who at the end of 2011 had the political fillip of being elected acting leader of the Party of European Socialists, has said that a return to the BSP being led by Purvanov would drag the party backwards. Bulgarian media reports quoted polls indicating that a slim majority of socialist supporters agreed with Stanishev, giving the current leader a slight advantage over Purvanov. The congress at which the leadership question will be decided is quite a number of weeks away, in May."

http://www.sofiaecho.com/2012/03/13/1786372_the-long-long-road-to-bulgarias-2013-parliamentary-elections

Probably nothing to it. I'm just asking a lot of questions because I hardly ever get the chance to talk to a Bulgarian about politics. I actually have met a couple Bulgarians while hosteling in America but bringing up politics always kills the conservation dead. That's actually the case with Eastern Europeans in general.

[Famous Mortimer]

I was going to plug each name into Google translate but then I see Wikipedia has all the parties with their percentages in English:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_parliamentary_election,_2013

[Famous Mortimer]

A grand coalition seems the only way to go since there's no chance a new election would produce a more workable legislature.

Or perhaps they could try to have the current technocratic government government try to stay on indefinitely. I'm unsure about the legality of that under the Bulgarian constitution.

[Famous Mortimer]

What about a Socialist government supported by MRF and Attack?

[Famous Mortimer]

Why did the Bulgarian Agrarian National Union collapse?

[Famous Mortimer]

A minority government of the BSP and the MRF has been elected.

They received 119 votes, less than half the votes in the National Assembly and one less than both parties actually won.

Most of the MPs who boycotted, and made a minority government possible, were from Attack.

[Famous Mortimer]

A lot of the media is comparing this new government to Monti's government in Italy.

It is headed by an independent economist after all.

Unlike with Monti though, this independent economist was the Socialist candidate throughout the campaign.

This is definitely a partisan government, just in case anyone was wondering.

[Famous Mortimer]

The government's announced policies differ substantially from those of BSP.

In which respects? And - more importantly - are the announcements credible?

Why would the BSP do that? Who are they attempting to appeal to? Seems counterproductive if they have to depend on the support of Attack.