Israeli General Election 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

Yesh Atid's only hope for winning the next election is to bring down the government in the next year.

If the government doesn't draft the ultra-Orthodox and Yesh Atid props them up anyway for something approaching a full term, they won't even be competing in the next election as they will have split into at least 3 different factions.

[Famous Mortimer]

and Nazareth while you're at it.

Please.

[Famous Mortimer]

That's about the 12th different hypothetical configuration that's been speculated on since the election.

As with the previous 10 possibilities, none of this talk is serious.

It's all just Likud trying to scare Yesh Atid into joining the government.

Likud-Yesh-JH-Shas is still by far the most likely scenario.

[Famous Mortimer]

The Times of Israel is reporting Livni will have a press conference tonight announcing her party is joining the government.

She will be Justice Minister and Peretz will be Environment Minister.

Of course, "big Tzipi Livni announcement planned tonight" usually means "underwhelming Tzipi Livni announcement a month from now."

[Famous Mortimer]

Deal went through.

This is insane.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'd seen it reported but I didn't believe it. It just makes no ideological sense.

Where does Netanyahu go from now? Likud-Shas-UTJ-Livni is still short of a majority.

Labor?

So he gives Livni control over diplomatic issues and Yacimovich control over economic ones. What's left for Likud?

The only thing he'll be strongly conservative on is continued coddling of the ultra-Orthodox and that's unpopular with the public at large and helps Shas much more than it helps Likud.

He'd better hope he magically creates peace, otherwise how is he going to survive as Likud leader? How will Likud survive the next election?

[Famous Mortimer]

Remember that Peretz left Labor because they wouldn't come out categorically against joining Netanyahu while Livni would.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't know if it's been brought up before, but the only Kibbutznik currently in the Knesset is a member of Jewish Home, a former Gaza settler named Zvulun Kalfa.



Oh, also, the formal deadline to negotiate a government passed. It's been extended 2 weeks though. It looked like there was going to be a Shas-less government announced at the 11th hour but Netanyahu opted out at the 11th hour and 59th minute.

[Famous Mortimer]

Weren't Likud and Yisrael Beytenu supposed to vote on a formal merger a month after the election? Did that ever happen? I didn't see any coverage.

[Famous Mortimer]

You work for Meretz?

Also, surely they would have to add an exception for minority parties...it would just be terrible PR.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think it's official now. We have a government. Likud-Yesh Atid-Jewish Home-Livni.

Lieberman stays at foreign affairs. Lapid gets finance and Yesh also takes education. Bennett gets trade and the National Union likely gets housing.

I predict this government drafts the ultra Orthodox, takes away some of their benefits, then falls in less than a year. After that Netanyahu will form a new government with Shas instead of Yesh.

[Famous Mortimer]

Cabinet announced today:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-third_government_of_Israel

Yaalon taking Defense for Likud.

Lapid taking finance. Yesh Atid also took Education, Welfare, and Health.

Bennett took Trade/Industry/Labor, Religious Affairs, and Jerusalem Affairs and his co-partyists took Housing and Pensions.

Netanyahu is holding Foreign Affairs for Liberman and YB took Immigrant Absorption, Public Security, Tourism, and Agriculture.

Also, there are rumors that Likud and YB will split into separate parliamentary groups and Netanyahu will abolish Likud primaries (although I'm unsure how he could manage that second part).

[Famous Mortimer]

I still think Yesh Atid will return to being the official opposition before this Knesset is over, unfortunately.

[Famous Mortimer]

Anybody know how the Ethiopian community voted?

[Famous Mortimer]

If you're a leftist, you really shouldn't like Yesh Atid. At all. They're economic libertarians. They claim to care about the middle class but to them, the "middle class" means doctors and lawyers. On peace, they aren't much better. Despite what the international media, who had absolutely no idea how to cover the election, said, Yesh Atid did not campaign on peace issues. They campaigned on vague technocratic platitudes. Yes, they support the two state solution but only because that's the default technocrat solution. They also are willing to accept the diplomatic status quo, because that's also the default technocratic solution.