Some form of third party llibertarian mov't will eventually splinter off the GOP if they don't get the prez w Christie. They will become a major thorn in the side of the GOP as they are now and as a third party in 2020.
I could equally imagine a 'red vs. green" split of the current DEM coalition, in 21st century 'pirate' style, i.e. driven by internet freedom / privacy issues. To gain traction, such a split would have to economically moderate. Judged by European experience, the split is unlikely to emerge to political relevance in DEM strongholds. Instead, it should first become politically significant in smaller (=less populated) states that are GOP strongholds and undergoing demographic and economic transition. Such transition, combined with voter fatigue with local GOP establishment, and traditional reservations towards the Democrats, provides the ideal breeding ground.
As such, it would probably emerge in UT/ID/MT, maybe NE or NH (though the latter two are more likely to mark the first stage of regional expansion), spill over into the major "techy" urban centres (Boston, NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Bay area) and from there gain national relevance. Ethnically, such a movement should include a strong Asian base. If it also manages to organise and appeal to Latinos, I could well imagine Texas to be the first major state where it becomes significant.
An interesting question is to which extent the US' two-party system will promote, maybe even require the Libertarian GOP split and the "green/pirate" DEM split to integrate. The result could be something similar to Scandinavian centrist parties.
