The Gender Gap: Women In The Democratic Coalition (user search)
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  The Gender Gap: Women In The Democratic Coalition (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Gender Gap: Women In The Democratic Coalition  (Read 5537 times)
Franknburger
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« on: March 03, 2013, 08:08:59 PM »
« edited: March 03, 2013, 08:28:51 PM by Franknburger »

My thread arguing that the gender gap in and of itself does not favour either party.

Sure it's bad for Republicans if they lose women badly, but it's equally bad for Democrats if they lose men badly. Given you already know the margin, the gender gap doesn't make a difference.

It does male a difference in polling, though. In both the 2008 and 2012 elections, most of the "undecided" during the last campaign weeks used to be low-to-middle income, some-or-no- college women. If they don't - as is commonly assumed - break 50:50, or for the challenger, but vote majority democrat instead, all these nice "horserace" and "possible last-minute swing" narratives become futile.

P.S: The female vote also appears to be less 'swingy' than the male vote. Compared to 2008, Obama lost 1% support among women, compared to 4% among men. I haven't checked on older elctions whether such female "swing resistance" is a particular 'Obama-phenomenon', or a longer-term pattern. However, it is common marketing knowledge that women tend to display stronger brand loyality than men.  As such, I think it may be much more difficult for Republicans to regain lost female votes, than for Democrats to win over more men.
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Franknburger
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Posts: 1,401
Germany


« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2013, 11:56:31 AM »

These two paragraphs seem to contradict each other.  Women are overrepresented among undecided voters, and yet the female vote is less swingy than the male vote?  How are both of those things true?

Because these women only appear to be undecided, but are ultimately very predictable in their voting behaviour. To put it differently - they say they might swing, but ultimately, they don't.

Who wrote this, Rachel Maddow? I understand that the Democrats have done a better job reaching out women and minority voters, but I think this article is just biased. So there may be people who spew garbage in the Republican Party, but most of us aren't these sexist jerks, who hate women.

Yeah, that's one of the weaknesses of the article. The gender gap is not an US phenomenon, but exissts in most industrialised countries, as is demonstrated in this study. Major underlying factors include better female education and higher labour market participation, as well as cultural factors (e.g. emergence of feminism, changing family patterns). There is nothing here the Republicans can be blamed about, aside from not noticing and/or ignoring these trends.

In order to give credit where it is due, here is the post which lead me to the study:
If anybody has further analysis on the female vote, please share it here (I have done Latin in school, so I am able to read some Italian).

 I unfortunately don't have any recent research on this topic available right now, and also nothing specific to Italy. But I was interested if you have read some classic analyses of the gender differences in electoral behaviour? A good summary is the article "The developmental theory of the gender gap: Women's and men's voting behavior in global perspective" by Inglehart and Norris from 2000. Should be available online. They analyze three different periods: the traditional situation especially in 1950s, in which women were the more right-wing and conservative voters in almost every country, the shifting situation especially in 1970s, in which women slowly moved to the left (or men to the right) in many countries such as the US and Scandinavia, while in many others like Italy and Germany women were still considerably more right-wing, and the establishment of a new paradigm during the 1990s, in which women become the more left-wing gender in almost all developed countries especially because of young women being much more leftist than young men. Italy was one of the last European countries to move from the old gender gap to the new one, more or less simultaneously with the changes in party system in 1994.
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