Franknburger
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,401
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« on: June 25, 2013, 02:26:07 AM » |
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Aside from the Latino vote, there is another pattern that is often overlooked. According to the exit polls, white seniors, while still overwhelmingly voting Republican, have hardly trended Romney (R +18 in 2008, R + 22 in 2012). In some parts of the US, especially New England and NYC, they even swung D (NY: D+4).
This may to some extent be issue-related (Medicare). However, I also assume a (temporary) demographic pattern, as the "JFK generation", i.e. those born in the late 1930's / early 1940s, is gaining increasing weight among seniors.
At first sight, the D trend/swing among white seniors has not become apparent in the 2012 Florida exit polls. Overall, seniors in Florida swung 5% towards Romney (+11 in Arizona, for comparison). Unfortunately, I have not yet found any split-up by age and race, but I would assume that it is rather Hispanic (Cuban) than white seniors accounting for that Florida swing.
In any case, if the pro-Dem trend among North-Eastern white seniors should make it down to Florida, Republicans have one more demographic problem to deal with in that state...
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