2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

"Sorry for asking, but are you by any chance from southern Thuringia?")

No, but my mother's line is from southern Lower Saxony (my parents first met in Göttingen), so the Eichsfeld is always somewhere on the  radar. And my godfather's son, whom I used to see pretty regularly during holidays as a child and student, lives in Meiningen. 

I spent a few days in Thuringia in the summer of 1990. Pretty weird: Stopped in Eisenach for a coffee - typically Eastern, annoyed waitress, unfriendly, no smile, keeps you waiting for half an hour, classical GDR accent etc.
Then I moved on to Weimar, arriving there after 18:00 and fearing for the worst since I did not have any accommodation. Surprise, surprise: Seff-organised tourism office, still open, with friendly and effective staff, speaking without notable accent. They had turned the former local Stasi HQ into a hostel, and I spent the night in a refurbished former prisoner cell (one of the strangest accommodations I have ever had !). Squatted house right around the corner, announcing punk concerts for the weekend - it felt incredibly 'western'.
This made my understand that Thuringia is quite a microcosmos of its own.

B.t.w. - I assume it is o.k. to temporarily use this thread for a bit of chatter, since over the next days everybody will be focusing on the Italian elections ..

[Franknburger]

The good message is that this decision is being put on the state's political agenda by the SPD.

While the reform itself might be reasonable, I think it's not a clever decision to campaign for it. The dissolution or merger of local administrative units is never popular. If the state SPD supports this reform, their local officials will be in deep trouble.

I read somewhere in the regional newspapers that 80% of Thuringians support some kind of territorial reforms. Even though approval will inevitably go down when the reform becomes specific and people see their particular region being affected, support for reform is still pretty high. Remember - the alternative the CDU is currently proposing is cutting funding for city theatres and universities, which should not be too popular as well.

In any case - I personally am always happy if parties dare to discuss potentially unpopular, but important issues, thereby demonstrating trust in voter's intelligence. The whole gaffe/ plagiarism/ sexism stuff gets more and more annoying ...

[Franknburger]

Lots of new polls over the last days:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (for ZDF), 22.02.13:

Party lean - the pure, unedited raw polling stuff (Changes againt Jan 29, 2013)

CDU       41 (-4)
SPD       33 (+2)
Grüne     15 (+2)
FDP        3 (+1)
Linke      5 ()

others (including Pirates!)    3 (-1)

Non-voters           14% (+7)
Unsure if voting    13% (+1)

Quite a swing towards red-green, which move close to absolute majority. Increase in vote abstention appears to primarily hurt CDU, Linke and Pirates. Note, however, that it is "sunbird" season, which typically reduces CDU scores. 

And their projection (the edited version)

CDU       40 (-1)
SPD       30 (+1)
Grüne     14 (+1)
FDP        4 ()
Linke      6 ()
Piraten   2 (-1)
others    4 ()

So their projection is essentially shifting 1% CDU 'loan votes' to FDP, 1% from SPD to Linke, 1% from CDU to "others" (NPD, Freie Wähler),  1% each from SPD & Grüne to Piraten/ others.

Prefered Coalition:
SPD/Grüne                        25 (-4)
CDU / SPD                        26  (+4)
CDU/FPD                           11  (-6)
None of the above              38 (+6)

Party competencies:

Economy:
CDU                40 (-8)
SPD                 19  (+4)
others              21 (+6)
none                20 (-2)

Social justice
CDU               21
SPD               37
FDP                 2
Linke               6
Grüne             7
none              12

Energy
CDU             19
SPD              12
FDP                2
Linke              1
Grüne          37
None            11

[Franknburger]

After Steinbrück's latest gaffe on the "two italian clowns", I just wait for Die PARTEI to nominate Stefan Raab as their candidate for chancellorship, and we have the SPD going down below 20%.

[Franknburger]

Here is today's press fallout on Peer Steinbrück:

Bild (tabloid, right-leaning): "Two clowns are two clowns. This needed to be said".

Hamburger Morgenpost (tabloid, left leaning): "Steinbrück put his foot in again - this time with warm-up".

Süddeutsche (moderate): "Steinbrück has just been dismissed on short notice. Not yet as candidate for chancellorship, but as discussion partner of the Italian president, who is definitely no clown".

Handelsblatt (business daily): "Steinbrück achieves the impossible - he unifies Italy".

Neue Presse (center-left): "Should he become chancellor, he of course will need to diplomatically restrain himself. As a candidate, he may well talk in plain language".

TAZ (Green-left): "Our Beppe - the teutonic, more serious and less humorous version.  Grillo's party got 25.6 percent. For the SPD, with this candidate, this would be an excellent result."

Die Welt (conservative): "You don't become chancellor this way. But maybe Steinbrück doesn't want to be chancellor at all. His series of gaffes more and more looks like passive resistance".

FAZ (moderate conservative): "This time it is different. This time Steinbrück said in public what most Germans think in private. One could get the impression that this gaffe wasn't a gaffe, but a calculated break of taboo. The public's surprisingly postive reaction could encourage Steinbrück to continue this path."

Last update on the Spiegel online poll (9014 votes by now):
   Steinbrück made a mistake:      49.0
   No mistake                              49.5                

-----
the upcoming polls shall be quite interesting ..        

P.S: How could I forget Steinbrück's new nickname, created by a FDP back-bencher, that is all over the headlines now: "Peerlusconi"

[Franknburger]

Polling update - there has been quite some action over the last days:

EMNID, Feb. 24
CDU        41 ()
SPD         27 ()
Grüne      14 (-1)
Linke        7 (+1)

FDP          4 ()
Piraten     4 (+1)
Others     3 (-1)

INSA / YouGov, Feb. 26
CDU        40 ()
SPD         28 (-1)
Grüne      15 ()
Linke        7 (+1)

FDP          5 ()
Piraten     2 ()
Others     3 ()

Forsa, Feb. 27
CDU        40 (-3)                (Return to the mean?)
SPD         25 (+1)
Grüne      16 (+1)
Linke        8 (+1)

FDP          4 (+1)
Piraten     2 (-1)
Others     5 ()

Infratest dimap, Feb. 28
CDU        41 (+1)
SPD         27 (-1)
Grüne      15 ()
Linke        6 ()

FDP          4 (-1)
Piraten     3 ()
Others      4 (+1)

Mainly statistical noise, not much to comment about. But anyway a good baseline to monitor the impact of Steinbrück's clown statement.

[Franknburger]

Last update on the Spiegel online poll (9014 votes by now):
   Steinbrück made a mistake:      49.0
   No mistake                              49.5                

Here's todays Spiegel poll update (15168 votes, still increasing every minute):
   Steinbrück made a mistake:      46.0
   No mistake                              52.5   

Domestically, Steinbrück is winning this one.             

[Franknburger]

Well Steinbrück is right, after all.

In fact, he is not. Neither did Berlusconi win the Italian election, nor is it fair to equate Grillo with Berlusconi. As Volker Beck, head of the Green parliamentary faction, commented "Steinbrück has insulted every professional clown with his remarks" ...

[Franknburger]

I am more and more thinking that Steinbrück's statement wasn't a gaffe, but calculated. Since the CDU has been moving quite to the left over the recent years, there are not many voters up for grabs in the center, especially if the SPD wants to avoid erosion of their left flank towards the Linke.

There are, however, some 30+ percent of eurosceptics in Germany, which so far grumblingly herd behind Merkel for lack of alternatives. FDP head Rösler tried for some time to make inroads with them, but has been called to order by genscher and other party seniors. Of course, neither Steinbrück nor the SPD do seriously want to lead Germany out of the Eurozone, but why not try to get some traction with eurosceptics? This requires of course careful balancing, in order to not alienate the 70% pro-Europeans in the electorate.

When you read Steinbrück's statement on Italy in full, including his wishy-washy 'maybe Italians want less austerity, maybe they just fell prey to the populists', and his closing expression of concern about future development of the Eurozone, you start to wonder how quickly he has been able to switch from "plain language mode" to Statesman 2.0. Since Napolitano did not give any reason for cancelling the meeting with Steinbrück, you also wonder why Steinbrück's speaker pointed at the 'clown' statement.  He could just have said the meeting was cancelled in order to allow Napolitano getting back to Italy earlier, and nobody would have asked any further.

[Franknburger]

03.03.2013, Emnid, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%

Black-yellow with no majority (45-49).
Red-green with no majority (42-52).

The trend is interesting. CDU down by 1, SPD unchanged, Grüne up by 1. This is what I expected to see after Steinbrücks's remarks. Could as well however be just statistical noise - let's see what the next polls look like.

[Franknburger]

INSA / YouGov, March 4
CDU        41 (+1)
SPD         26 (-2)
Grüne      15 ()
Linke        7 ()

FDP          5 ()
Piraten     3 (+1)
Others     3 ()

Internet polling, representing the better-informed part of the electorate. In this group, Steinbrück's comments have obviously hurt the SPD. While the 1% swing towards the CDU could be expected, it is a bit surprising that the Pirates, and not the Greens, have benefitted on the opposition side.

New Forsa numbers should come in tomorrow, infratest dimap on Thursday, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen  (with raw numbers) on Friday, then we should have a good overview on the overall trend


Here's the final update on the Spiegel poll (17838 votes):
   Steinbrück made a mistake:      47.1
   No mistake                              51.4

Over the last days, the mood appears to have swung a bit against Steinbrück.

[Franknburger]

GMS, 06.03.2013, Bavaria State Election:

CSU: 48%
SPD: 21%
Grüne: 12%
FW: 8%

FDP: 3%
Linke: 3%
Piraten: 2%

Easy CSU absolute majority (48-41).

GMS also published figures for the federal election (Bavaria only)

CSU: 49%
SPD: 21%
Grüne: 14%
FW: 2%

FDP: 4%
Linke: 3%
Piraten: 3%
Others: 4%

Interesting "redistribution" of state-level FW voters (-6): CSU 1, SPD 0, Grüne 2, FDP 1, Pirates 1, Others (DVU?, NPD?) 1.

Results are a bit outdated (polling from Feb 4-12, before the Italian elections), but better to have outdated figures than none at all.

[Franknburger]

GMS, 06.03.2013, Bavaria State Election:

CSU: 48%
SPD: 21%
Grüne: 12%
FW: 8%

FDP: 3%
Linke: 3%
Piraten: 2%

Easy CSU absolute majority (48-41).

These numbers sound about right. Actually, Bavaria is one of the few states where I see the FDP below 5%. The party is traditionally weak there, and with the CSU covering virtually every issue and taking every position from left to right, FDP voters can as well vote CSU.

It's possible, however, that we see lower FW numbers on election day. As the survey quoted by Franknburger shows, their core support (in non-communal elections) is not very big, and as the CSU has regained its strenght, the FW appeal as "a better CSU" might vanish.

I tend to interprete the data the other way round: 48-49% appears to be the 'high water mark' for the CSU (bye, bye 50+X). Even if the FW's appeal as 'a better CSU' might vanish (which is anything but apparent, looking at the state elections poll), most of FW voters are not coming 'home' to the CSU, but disperse in various directions.

Let's not call the Bavarian election too early. Firstly, together with the state elections there will be the referendum on university tuition fees, which might drive turnout, and should go against CSU & FDP. Secondly, the Constutional Court will before the summer rule on the tax discrimination of gay couples. It is widely expected that this discrimination - which is the last remaining substantial difference between 'gay partnerships' and  married couples - will be ruled unconstitutional,  following similar decisions of the Federal Tax Court (BFH) and a number of tax courts in various states. This will make gay marriage  - or rather tax reform for couples and parents - a prime election issue, where the CSU can only lose (they either drive moderates and unmarried couples towards SPD / Greens, or alienate their conservative base, which may swing to the FW or abstain).

Thirdly, as I have been demonstrating in my Germany Employment Maps thread, the Bavarian economy is quite dependent on solar and car manufacturing. The collapse of solar manufacturers has already left traces on the labour market (e.g. Erlangen region). Demand decrease for cars has so far mostly hit Ford (short-time in their Cologne and Saarlouis plants), Opel (announced closure of the Bochum plant) and Daimler-Benz (profit warning), but may sooner or later also reach Bavaria. If BMW and Audi go on short-time, and their suppliers announce lay-offs, the CSU's current strength could quickly melt away.

[Franknburger]

And here is the poll I have been waiting for, because it includes a lot of background information:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (for ZDF), 08.03.13:

Party lean - the pure, unedited raw polling stuff (Changes againt Jan 29, 2013)

CDU       46 (+5)
SPD       26 (-7)  !!
Grüne     14 (-!)
FDP        3 ()
Linke      6 (+1)

others (including Pirates!)   5 (+2)

Non-voters           11% (-3)
Unsure if voting    13% ()

Steinbrück's remark has obviously hurt the SPD and helped the CDU, which also may have piccked some of the previous poll's 'non-voters'. There indeed seems to be a bit of Linke uptick, although I don't have any idea why.

And their projection (the edited version)

CDU       41 (+1)
SPD       28 (-2)
Grüne     14 ()
FDP        4 ()
Linke      7 (+1)
others    6 ()

So their projection is essentially shifting 1% CDU 'loan votes' to FDP, 1% to "others", 3% to SPD (compensation of short-term swing), and 1% from SPD to Linke.
They have stopped to show separate figures for the Pirates, which is telling by itself.

Prefered Coalition:
SPD/Grüne                        22 (-3)
CDU / SPD                        24  (-2)
CDU/FPD                           13  (+2)
None of the above              41 (+3)

Black-green, here we come ?

Prefered Chancelor:
Merkel                             62 ()
Steinbrück                       27 (-2)

Personal Ratings:
Merkel                             2.1 (+0.1)
Steinbrück                       0.0 (- 0.5)

Steinbrück and the Clowns - the remarks were rather
good                             26%
bad                               71%
don't know                      3%

Is Peer Steinbrück the right candidate?
All respondents:            31 yes, 55 no
SPD leners                    54 yes, 39 no
Green leaners               32 yes, 59 no

[Franknburger]

Let's not call the Bavarian election too early. Firstly, together with the state elections there will be the referendum on university tuition fees, which might drive turnout, and should go against CSU & FDP.

The referendum is cancelled, as the FDP backed down and agreed to abolish the fees trough a parliamentary decision.

Did not know that. CSU & FDP are no idiots, they obviously saw what was coming up ..

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I don't think this will be a major issue. If it turns out to be one, Seehofer will clear it away in time, as he's done with every controversial issue.

Instead of a direct reply, here some more results from today's ZDF Politbarometer:

Equal treatment of homosexual couples is important:
All respondents                            52%
CDU/CSU                                    44%
SPD                                            59%
Grüne                                         64%
Linke                                          69%

Note how the question has been formulated!

Should the CDU focus more on traditional conservative issues ?

Yes                                          21%  (CDU/CSU leaners: 21%)
No, don't change                      31%  (CDU/ CSU leaners 44%)
Become less conservative          38% (CDU/ CSU leaners 30%)

[Franknburger]

Steinbrück and the Clowns - the remarks were rather
good                             26%
bad                               71%
don't know                      3%

Is that testamant to how unrepresentative self-selecting online polls are, or has the media line swung heavily against him in recent days?

The ZDF poll is not an online poll, but a phone poll.

ZDF polls also tend to be accurate, because they are one of the two exit pollsters.

Well, their exit polls typically show a slight CDU lean, which became especially apparent in the nail-biting 2002 election, when until shortly before midnight, their projection had black-yellow in front, while ARD had for already some hours correctly projected the razor-thin red-green victory.
Edit: Note in this respect, e.g., that Thursday's ARD poll had a 37 pro / 62 contra rating for Steinbrück's remarks (though the question was formulated a bit softer), while in yesterday's ZDF poll, it was 26 /71.
But I appreciate their polling for being quite detailed and going beyond the usual horse-race top numbers.

Nah, I meant the Spiegel poll Franknburger had been earlier chronicling, which shown a 50/50 split, narrowly in favour of his comments.

I haven't noticed much of a media swing against Steinbrück, as there were other issues making the headlines over the last days (I will do a separate post on this later). So it has probably a lot to do with self-selection, though, given the high number of Italian immigrants in Germany, I would not outrule the possibility that an initially positive response to  Steinbrück has been reversed in individual discussions at the work-place, the sports club, or with the Pizzeria owner next door.

In any case, the latest polls show that, while there are quite a number of dissatisfied conservative and euro-sceptic CDU voters, any attempts of the SPD to tap into that potential will be futile, and may ultimately result in losing more moderates than gaining right-wingers.  

[Franknburger]

Polling update:

EMNID, March 10
CDU         40 ()
SPD         27 ()
Grüne      15 ()
Linke         8 (+1)

FDP          4 (-1)
Piraten      3 ()
Others      3 ()

INSA / YouGov, Mar 12
CDU        40 (-1)
SPD        27 (+1)
Grüne     16 (+1)
Linke        6 (-1)

FDP          5 ()
Piraten     2 (-1)
Others     4 (+1)


Mainly statistical noise.

[Franknburger]

Another polling update
Forsa, 13.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU:        40% ()
SPD:                24% (-1)
Grüne:             16% (+1)
Linke:                8% ()

FDP:                  4% ()             
Piraten:             3% ()
Others:             5% ()

Same trends as ARD (infratest dimap): SPD in decline, Greens stabilising at their highest levels since Autumn 2011.

[Franknburger]

In order for non-German readers to better understand reasons for recent polling trends (Green upswing, SPD decline, CDU stagnation or slight decline), here an update on the latest news in relation to major transport sector projects:

Stuttgart 21: This controversial project to completely rebuild the railway network inside and around Stuttgart is commonly regarded as prime reason for the Green's electoral successes in the Baden-Würtemberg state and Stuttgart mayoral elections. In late February, an internal report for Deutsche Bahn was leaked, which predicted an additional cost increase of up to 2 bn €, and concluded that the project would never had been started if its actual costs had been known from the outset. On March 5, Deutsche Bahn's supervisory board, upon Chancellor Merkel's public endorsement, approved continuation of the project in spite of the projected cost increase.  Baden-Würtemberg's PM Kretschmann (Greens) criticised that alternative, less costly scenarios had not been considered, and denied any contribution of his state to funding the cost increase. His state-level junior partner SPD, remaining committed to the project, has been accusing Kretschmann of violating the coalition agreement. In the meantime, polls are showing 54% of Baden-Würtemberg's citizens now wanting the project to be abandoned, despite a 59% approval in the 2011 referendum on Stuttgart 21.
http://www.dw.de/german-rail-company-board-backs-stuttgart-21-project-despite-cost-blowout/a-16647777
http://www.thelocal.de/society/20130226-48205.html#.UUXBPlAwfiw

Berlin-Brandenburg Airport The airport was originally envisaged to be inaugurated in late 2011 at a cost of 1.7 bn Euros. Due to numerous technical and managerial problems, the opening has been postponed to at least late 2014 (definite date to be announced this Summer), and latest estimates put total cost at somewhere around 4.7 bn €. 
On March 8, Federal Minister of Transport Peter Ramsauer introduced Hartwig Mehdorn, former CEO of Deutsche Bahn and Berlin Air, as new boss of the airport management company. The decision received mixed public response. My local newspaper, e.g., put in a cartoon saying "Finally they have put somebody in charge who is experienced with delays", referring to significant deterioration of Deutsche Bahn's service quality under Mehdorn's leadership. Berlin's Grüne leader Künast stated "What is needed now is sound  project management experience. But instead, we get one who spent ten years digging a money pit with Stuttgart 21."  As if to prove the point, Mehdorn, in his first press conference, emerged on a rant against German bureaucracy, stating that nowhere else in the world such a major airport would be closed to operation during night-time hours.

Kiel Canal: As if things hadn't been already bad enough, on March 6, the Kiel Canal, the world's most frequented man-made waterway, had to be closed when two locks broke down. In spite of several warnings of local officials (from CDU/ FDP and SPD / Greens alike) during the last years that urgent repairs of the more than 100 years-old locks were needed, the Federal government had in 2012 cut down canal maintenance funding from 50 m € to 11 m €. Construction of new locks, planned since a long time, has, in spite of Ramsauer symbolically attending the ground-breaking ceremony a few weeks before the 2012 Schleswig-Holstein state election, not come forward due to "technical problems in tender preparation". Critics, however, suspect that Ramsauer has been busy with channelling as much federal funds as possible into his home state of Bavaria, where state elections are due this autumn.

Ramsauer initially downplayed the issue, much to the discontent of the state governments of Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein, whose economy is heavily depending on the Canal (I would furthermore assume several Scandinavian governments being anything but happy about the development). In the meantime, he has paid a visit to the broken-down locks. While it is yet unclear when repairs shall be finished and the Canal can be re-opened, Ramsauer announced that construction of replacement locks would commence in 2015 and be finished by 2021, and some additional funding to cover expected cost increases has already been set aside.

Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link Largely beyond the radar of the national press, the next disaster is already looming on the horizon. In an inter-governmental accord, the German and Danish governments have agreed on the construction on a fixed road & rail link between Hamburg and Copenhagen across the Fehmarn belt. While Denmark shall bear all costs towards the German border, including tunnel construction under the Fehmarn belt, Germany is responsible for upgrading road and rail connections on its side of the border.  This includes especially extending an already existing motorway by some 30 km to the projected tunnel entrance, electrifying the existing single-rail connection until 2021, and upgrading it to dual-rail until 2028. Initial cost estimates for these connections ranged around 850 m Euros.
In the meantime, however, engineering studies have shown that the existing bridge over the Fehmarnsund is statically not suited for the projected increase in heavy traffic, and needs to be replaced or complemented by a second bridge (600 m Euros initial cost estimate). Moreover, the current budget does not allow for a complete railway reconstruction along the  motorway, but only for upgrading the existing line, which passes through main Baltic Sea holiday resorts. Local opposition is already strong, and likely to result in lengthy court proceedings and, possibly, substantial extra costs for noise protection as well as replacing current level railway crossings by bridges.
The current approach of the Federal Ministry of Transport appears to be shifting respective planning and budgeting onto the new federal medium-term transport sector investment plan for 2015-2030. However, this could mean serious planning and construction delays, which ultimately might lead to Germany breaking its obligation of finishing its part of the Fehmarnbelt fixed link by 2021, the envisaged tunnel opening date.  I am anything but sure that the Danish and Swedish Governments, and the EU Commission (which is contributing to project costs) will allow Ramsauer to continue with this strategy for long.

Essentially, this all means that current transport sector budgets are not worth the paper they are written on. Annual federal transport sector capital investment is budgeted at around 5 bn Euros. By my math, 2 bn extra for Stuttgart 21, 2-3 bn extra for the Berlin-Brandenburg Airport (only 30% federal share, but since Berlin is virtually bankrupt, the federal government will most likely have to pick up more), 700 m for Kiel Canal locks, probably at minimum an extra 1 bn for the Fehmarnbelt fixed link - that's more than a full annual CapEx budget!
Great performance for a "fiscally conservative" government. The Greens are eager to rub that message in. Not so the SPD, which is part of the mess (especially Berlin-Brandenburg Airport, but also Stuttgart 21).

[Franknburger]

I'm late to this, but I just looked back over this thread and I'm surprised at the high level of support for gay equality among Linke voters. I thought a lot of their support was from rather socially conservative folks, but I guess not.

The existence of gay civil unions - called marriages in the vernacular and registered in just the same way as marriages (except that churchbound people have a second, church, wedding afterwards*) -  has become part of the furniture quite fast, and most unpolitical people are actually vaguely surprised to hear they're not equal in the benefits they bestow. In short, equality is the conservative option, resisting the inevitable is the reactionary option.
There's a lot of people, and possibly more among Left voters than anywhere else, who would admit to personal anti-gay prejudice while supporting equality.

*and remember, they're few and far between in the East

In addition, you first have to remember that in the case of the infratest dimap poll we are talking about a rather small sample size (7% Linke voters among 1345 respondents ~ 90-95 persons), which implies a quite large margin of error.
Secondly, it has become obvious that the issue will primarily hurt the CDU / CSU: While SPD, Grüne, FDP and Linke all have full marriage equality in their party programmes, the CDU/CSU is so far opposing it. As such, a Linke voter supporting marriage equality is not only doing so in line with his/her party's  official opinion, but may also be quite happy to see the CDU/CSU getting into problems, and one of the rifts within the black-yellow coalition becoming exposed.

[Franknburger]

As usual, here some more background data from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (for ZDF), 22.03.13:

Party lean - the pure, unedited raw polling stuff (Changes againt Mar 8, 2013)

CDU       42 (-4)
SPD       31 (+5)
Grüne    13 (-!)
Linke       6  ()
FDP         2 (-1)

others (including Pirates)   6 (+1)

Non-voters           12% (+1)
Unsure if voting    14% (+1)

The SPD's "clown dip" has ebbed away, results return to normal levels. Decrease for Grüne is slightly surprising, however, we may have the "Easter holidays" effect here (students, teachers, families with children - all potential green demographics - travelling to sunnier places).


Prefered Coalition:
SPD/Grüne                        24 (+2)
CDU / SPD                         23  (-1)
CDU/FPD                           13  ()
None of the above            40 (-1)

This time they have done a more specific analysis, asking for the opinion on various coalitions (good / bad):
CDU / SPD                        52 / 29
SPD/ Grüne                       42 / 35
CDU / Grüne                     34 / 38
CDU/ FPD                         26 / 48
SPD / Grüne / Linke          19 / 63
SPD / Grüne / FDP            13 / 60

At least 40% of CDU supporters don't like black-yellow anymore! Little support for SPD / Grüne / Linke. It will most likely be another Grand Coalition, unless the CDU breaks in completely.

Prefered Chancelor:
Merkel                             60 (-2)
Steinbrück                       29 (+2)

Personal Ratings:
Merkel                             1.9 (-0.2)
Steinbrück                       0.1 (+0.1)

[Franknburger]

And another poll, but same trend (CDU down, SPD up, Greens slightly down):

[Franknburger]

I think it's possible that outside of their stronghold Brandenburg, the SPD will win no single seat in former GDR territory.

Edit: I just realized this was already the case in 2009. Well, it won't change this year.

The SPD might still have a shot at Leipzig II, where Wolfgang Tiefensee is running again. But that's probably it.

[Franknburger]

The SPD's problem goes beyond leadership. They are still ideologically tied in the 20th century "right-left" debate, without  acknowledging the challenges of the 21st century to Germany. These challenges are:

1) Globalisation (including helping to define Europe's role in a globalised world)
2) Climate change
3) Demographic change (which is a specific challenge to Germany given its particular age pyramid that is dominated by the 1957-67 'baby boom' generation).

As concerns globalisation, no party has a clear answer / strategy, but the CDU gets most credit from the current government's handling of the Euro crisis, and as the German economy is obviously doing quite well at the moment.

Climate change is the Green domain. Merkel is being credited with being able to correct herself (switching from pro-nuclear to anti-nuclear), and the CDU is trying to increase their competency rating in this respect. SPD positions are o.k., but still suffering from their historic "pro coal-mining" stance, and they can't keep up against the Greens in this area.

As concerns demographic change, the CDU has taken action (e.g. increasing the pension age), while the SPD is completely denying the issue. Trying to maintain the pension age at 65 may be popular with current pensioners, but anybody below 50 wonders how in hell his pensions are going to be paid, or how old-age care may be organised and financed. Demographic change is not a particular CDU domain, though, especially as concerns changing family patterns (patchwork families, single parents, gay partnerships). But, again, it is rather the Greens than the SPD who are pressing forward here.

At the moment, the SPD is completely losing out with respect to all a/m major issues. They might have hoped to win on the "Globalisation / Europe" front with Steinbrück, but his "Italian clowns" comments killed that hope. As "pro-coal" politician, Steinbrück is unable to raise the SPD's profile in combatting climate change (as PM of North-Rhine Westphalia, Steinbrück killed the local red-green coalition due to controversies about lignite mining and lignite-fired power plants). Demographic change is not his topic, and, while he personally probably acknowledges the need for further pension and old age care reform, he does not dare to get in conflict with the official SPD party line.

Hannelore Kraft would probably be able to raise and refocus the SPD's profile on demographic change. She also comes across as less "pro coal".  As Merkel, she is more a "process moderator" than a "straight talk" politician, which voters probably find more suited for dealing with globalisation. As such, she should score better than Steinbrück.

Unfortunately, the SPD is on the best way to become another protest party. As long as they do not officially acknowledge the 21st century, and come up with feasible and comprehensive concepts for how to deal with actual challenges, they will see their electorate further eroding to Linke, Pirates and non-voters, and remain unable to seriously challenge the CDU.  

[Franknburger]

The SPD and CDU did that pension age rise together, actually.

And anybody in a blue collar profession over 40 - yes, including fairly unpolitical BILD-reading people - just wonders how the hell you can work to 67 or how a party pretending to be rooted in the working class could vote for that. If you want to pin down the SPD's problems to a single vote, it's that, not Hartz IV.

Without recalculating all the pension formulas etc, that thing was little more than a massive grab into the lower (but not lowest) pensions to finance yours.

In the 1970s, the average job entry age was at 16-17, and life expectancy around 74 years. Today, average job entry age is 23 years, and life expectancy is 82 years. In other words - people now start working seven years later, and die eight years later than in the 1970s. Even without the specific "baby boomers" challenge, pension schemes must adapt to this shift.

The stereotypical blue collar worker that started working at the age of 15 is today representing at maximum 10% of the total population (and I personally don't have any problems with allowing anybody to go into pension after 47 work years, in order to maintain the 1970s standard).

In 2012, total employment in mining, production, construction and maintenance / repair stood at some 8 million people. Add some unemployed, and correct by the white collar share in the a/m sectors, you arrive at around 9 million, around 15% of Germany's total voting age population. If the SPD wants to continue defining itself as blue collar working class party, that is the vote share they are looking for. Otherwise - welcome to the 21st century!