2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

Here is my guess where some of the "others" vote may go: Die PARTEI - Partei für Arbeit, Tierschutz, Eliteförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Party for Labour, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites, and grass-roots Initiative - acronym PARTY). Created in 2004 by the satirical magazine TITANIC, it originally got attention by calling for re-erecting the Berlin Wall, and turning former East Germany into a large-scale smoking area. Their election slogan is "Inhalte überwinden" "Overcome content".

A few election posters:

"F**king. Work. Christian Social. Al under one hat. Your candidate (the one with the hat)."[Berlin]


"Serious (solid / reliable) politics. Olaf Schlösser, Minister for Corruption." [Dortmund]


"Competence need Consonants" [Marburg, Hesse]

Apparently, grass-roots local initiative not always manages to stay 100% free of content:
 
"Upgrade TXL (Berlin-Tegel airport) to TXXL. Your candidate Feline Guck, Commissioner for long-distance transport"


"Less Skyline with the Muslim Brothers! (We integrate everything)" [Frankfurt].

They gained quite some media attention with a fake NPD poster displaying former FPÖ leader Jörg Haider, who died in a car crash a few years ago, and the slogan "Gas geben" (Step on the gas):


Last week, they created another media uproar by airing a spot on "family policy" at prime time on public TV. The spot consisted of a pixeled soft porn, with the closing slogan "The PARTY makes you feel well". Watching the spot on YouTube requires registration to prove you are over eighteen, but you can get an idea as well here:
http://www.welt.de/vermischtes/kurioses/article119933167/Die-Partei-wirbt-mit-raetselhaftem-Porno-Wahlspot.html

Some other spots:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noNLwB-G8h4
"Studies from Iceland have proven PARTY voters to be twice as happy as other voters. Vote now, and get an extra bunch of bananas for free!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFJo77X_aAY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kirUQFPEAuo

The PARTEI gained 0.7% in the 2011 Hamburg State election, and 1.3% in this year's local election in Lübeck.  I could well imagine them coming in at similar levels in most larger cities plus university towns, which will probably amount to 0.5-0.7% overall.

[Franknburger]

Polls will close at 18:00 CE summer time. The first projections will be aired just minutes after. As tight as it looks now, however, it will most likely become midnight or later until the final outcome is clear (at least that was how long it took in 2002).
The first location to report was traditionally Hallig Gröde, a small island off the west coast of Schleswig-Holstein, with some 10 registered voters. However, I just read on Wikipedia that they will this year fully vote by mail, with counting done on the mainland, and no separate results reported for the island. As such, the next smallest polling districts, namely Ammeldingen/ Our, and Gemünd/Our, both located on the Loxembourg border, will probably this time be the first to report.

[Franknburger]

(at least compared to what Red-Green might have done)

That's exactly the point. It's the biggest joke of this election that SPD and Greens are unpopular because of something they might have done hypothetically. In the end, voters will think of this and vote for Merkel as the "lesser evil".

I disagree. SPD and Greens are unpopular because they haven't been able to shatter the myth of "Merkel is steering us safely through this crisis". They haven't really attacked Merkel's swaying ("no taxpayer money is at risk - aside from our share in the European Central Bank, which continues buying Greek bonds, and the money we will have to put in in 2015"). They haven't made the point that a common currency implies financial transfers from the centre to the periphery - as it is being done in Germany for decades ("Länderfinanzausgleich"). They haven't criticised the overly focus on fiscal instead of structural indicators for Greece, etc.

As to the AfD: FG Wahlen is regularly polling the sentiment towards the EU. The last time they did it, in June, 25% felt the EU bringing more disadvantages than advantages for Germany. In May 2010, at the height of the Euro crisis, it was 38%. These figures give an indication of a eurosceptic party's vote potential, and make me believe that, once AfD has reached the point where they may get into the Bundestag, they will easily find the additional voters required to lift them over 5%.

[Franknburger]

Went to a birthday party in Hamburg last night, where, of course, the election was discussed as well. A few, completely subjective takeaways:
1. The "energy grid" referendum is a hot issue in Hamburg, and should boost turnout. It is expected to go around 50-50, probably with the "No" vote slightly having the upper hand. It should lead quite a number of otherwise loyal SPD voters to defect to the Greens and the Linke.
2. Disappointment with the Green federal campaign and leadership is quite universal. However, after having contemplated other voting options for quite some time, traditional Green voters will finally come home (with the decision in many cases just made yesterday). Expect the Greens to overperform the polls by at least 1-2%.

So, here is my guess on the outcome:

CDU            35.5 (last-minute defection to AfD, FDP loan voting)
FDP              7.5 (get some 3% CDU loan votes)
CDU & FDP  43.0

SPD            24.9
Greens        11.3  (disaffected voters coming home at the expense of SPD and Pirates)
Linke            9.5
Subtotal      45.7

AfD              5.2
Pirates         1.8
NPD, REP     1.6
Others         3.7

P.S: Midas, there is one big mistake in the election guide you have posted: For the CSU, it needs to read " I drive a Benz BMW and hate Austrians on my motorway".

[Franknburger]

Seriously? Where did you see that?

Voting was brisk in my low-turnoutish precinct at noon (before the usual rush hour, but not so very long before) - I actually had to wait a few seconds.

From the Landeswahlleiter pages and news reports.

It varies though: Turnout is up in the Eastern states, plus more significantly in Hamburg.

Turnout is lagging in Bavaria though so far and similar to 2009 in Lower Saxony.

No information from other big population states like NRW or BW so far.

NRW said to be up two points at 1pm.

• Hamburg up 3.6% (!) at 11:00
• Berlin up 0.3% at 12:00
• Schleswig-Holstein down 1.7% at 11:00
• No cumulated figures for Baden-Würtemberg yet, but city-level data suggests a slight decline so far. However, a record 23.3%, 4% more than in 2009, have already voted by mail in the state.
• The city of Mainz reports 2.6% increase at 14:00. Remember - the city's central railway station had to be closed during summer for some weeks for shortage of network supervisory staff
• Munich and Nuremberg are each down by some 2% (12:00)
• Sachsen-Anhalt up 2.5% at 12:00
• Saxony up 3.3% at 12:00, participation especially strong in Dresden and Leipzig

Overall, not a good sign for CDU/CSU, and quite encouraging for the Greens (Hamburg, Berlin, Dresden, Leipzig are all Green strongholds). Might also indicate some AfD appeal to people that have traditionally abstained from voting.

[Franknburger]

According to a statement by the Federal Election Commissioner (Bundeswahlleiter), at 14:00, 41.4% of eligible voters had voted in person (+5.3 % compared to 2009). Vote-by-mail is not considered in the above figures, but seems to have gone up as well.

[Franknburger]

Just voted together with our daughter (my wife is having an excursion today and already voted in the morning). Participation here is pretty high, more than 300 out of 480 registered voters have already voted.

[Franknburger]

Just for fun: I checked out a few blogs to get an idea on vote participation and general mood, and came upon this nice story on schwatzgelb.de (no, it is not what you would think about first):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"[Our election precinct was so crowded that] we even had to designate election booths to voters in order to keep things going effectively. I messed it up a bit, and was almost removed from my supervisory duties:
For a short moment, everything was vacant, and an elder lady didn't know where to go. I said: 'Everything is free, but you should go for the Left.'  The assembled CDU leaders started to get mad on me, until I reminded them that I am presiding the local SPD chapter..."

[Franknburger]

Some update on vote participation:
Saxony +1.9% (16:00)
Lower Saxony +1.7% (16:30)
Baden-Würtemberg +0.5 (14:00)
Schleswig-Holstein + 0.6 (14:00)

[Franknburger]

Some analysis on FDP & AfD (from ZDF)

- 40% of FDP voters had the party as first choice. 53% prefer the CDU. This yields something like 2% core FDP vote, plus 2.5% CDU loan vote (which probably is not sufficient). Biggest FDP losses were with voters below 40.

- AfD vote sources: 26% non-/first-time voters, 22% CDU, 17% "others" (presumably quite some NPD/REP voters among them), 12% FDP, remainder SPD/Green/Linke (don't recall the percentages, but it appeared to be a quite equal distribution in relation to 2009 party strength).

The 26% non-voters, and increased vote participation, tell you why AfD was underpolled ....

[Franknburger]

Results from  my village:

CDU     44.0 (+7.6)
SPD     25.8 (+1.2)
Grüne  10.5 (+2.2)
FDP       6.8 (-12.4)
Linke     4.9 (- 1.4)
Pirates   1.8 (+0.4)
AfD        3.1 (+3.1)
NPD       0.6 (-1.1)
others    2.4 (+0.4)    1.5% Animal Protection

[Franknburger]

Latest update on projections (ARD/ZDF/RTL)

CDU       42,5 / 42.5 /42.2
SPD       25.5 /25.9 / 25.8
Grüne     8.0 /  8.0  /  8.1
Linke       8.1 /  8.4 /  8.4
FDP         4.6 /  4.6  / 4.6
AfD          4.9 /  4.9 / 4.7

[Franknburger]

New ARD projection (50 constituencies in)

CDU    41.7
SPD    25.6
Linke    8.6
Grüne   8.4
FDP      4.7
AfD      4.8

CDU/CSU now 5 seats short of majority.

As in all recent elections, initial projections again tended to underestimate smaller parties (note the gradual increase of the Greens, and the CDU/CSU decline). I don't think we will see a CDU/CSU seat majority, but the FDP coming in again is not yet completely off.

AfD apparently performing much better in the East (>6%) than in the West, but also got 6% in blue-collar Hamburg-Harburg-Bergedorf.

[Franknburger]

AfD worst results appear to be along the western border (East Frisia & Emsland, but also Aachen II). They also performed quite poorly in Berchtesgaden, Schwandorf (on the Czech border), and Trier. 

[Franknburger]

That's a surprise - CDU also gains Hildesheim (southern Hannover suburbs).

[Franknburger]

Interesting local result here - Ostholstein. The planned Fehmarnbelt link has been a major issue, especially the fact that it may lead to substantial increase in rail freight traffic directly through the main tourism resorts on the Baltic Sea coast, There has been quite some to and fro from Deutsche Bahn and the Federal Ministry of Transport: In late spring, the Minister announced that a new railway line off the coast and along the motorway may be built, a few weeks ago Deutsche Bahn denied this as unfeasible and put forward plans for extending the original line running through the resorts. All this lead me to expect CDU losses, and SPD/ Green gains here, as already in this Spring's local election. Well, here is tonight's result (PV)

CDU      41.1 (+8.3)
SPD      31.6 (+3.4)
Grüne     8.0 (-2.6)
FDP        6.1 (-11.5)
Linke      4.4 (-2.9)
AvD        5.0 (+5.0)
Pirates    1.6 (+- 0)
others     2.2 (+0.2)

CDU defended the constituency 45.8 to 37.2 SPD

[Franknburger]

The CDU has gained Prignitz - Ostprignitz-Ruppin - Havelland I !!!

.. which was rated "likely SPD"!  They also took Cottbus, and Gera-jena, from Linke. With the CDU already having taken 3 Brandenburg constituencies, an SPD overhang mandate there is becoming extremely unlikely.

[Franknburger]

ARD exit poll on the FDP:

FDP is the most competent party on (2009 / 2013 / change)
Taxes         19 / 6 / -13
Economy    14 / 3 / -11
Health        10/ 4 /  -6

Opinion of 2009 FDP voters on the FDP performance:
"Promised a lot and delivered hardly anything"  90 %
"Cared too much for specific interest groups"     82 %
"Didn't move anything during the last years"     74 %

Any more questions ?

[Franknburger]

Forget the pedo scandal, that was old stuff from the 1970s. Veggie-day (Green leader Künast calling for one mandatory meat-free day in canteens) was much more relevant.

ARD polling on the Greens:
"Scare voters off with their tax plans"                                                       68 %
"Have moved away from  their voters' interests in the campaign"                59 %
"Want to prescribe people how they should live"                                        50 %

"Should be part of the government"                                                          53 %
"Are honest on what they want to do after the election"                              43 %
[highest rate of all major parties, CDU gets 37%, FDP 25%]

In other words: A crappy campaign and poor/ over-aged leadership managed to turn strong sympathy that extends far beyond the core electorate into an election loss.

[Franknburger]

It's not "Merkel is fantastic", it's "Merkel will manage for me so I don't have to worry about how difficult to understand the world has become".

It's not even that,  it is "Merkel does not have a clue, but she listens to public opinion and changes her policy when it is becoming unpopular". In other words - System Merkel is direct democracy at work (opinion-poll transmitted).

[Franknburger]

Are there any seats in particular the FDP might want to focus on to win seats in the future, if they are stuck in 'below the threshold land'? Or is their vote too thinly distributed for that to ever be a possibility?

So far, their best constituencies have been Düsseldorf I (9.2 %), followed by Bonn (8.5%) and the surrounding Rhein-Sieg Kreis II (8.3 %). In Bonn, they had a vote-splitting agreement with the local CDU (FPTP vote CDU, PV FDP). So they might want to elect NRW head Lindner as new head of the federal party, and hope for better times to come after four years of opposition against a Grand Coalition.

[Franknburger]

Hamburg (1,639 of 1,686 precincts), PV

CDU        32.2  +4.4
SPD        32.4  +5.0
Grüne     12.6  -3.0
Linke        8.7  -2.4
FDP          4.8  -8.4
AfD          4.1
Pirates     2.7

The math is that Hamburg will neither lift FDP nor AfD over 5%.
Seems SPD will take 6 out of the seven constituencies (2 gains), Hamburg-Nord will remain with the CDU.

[Franknburger]

What the hell - CDU gains Essen!
Plus Magdeburg, and two more Brandenburg constituencies.

Edit: CDU gains Essen III, Essen II remains SPD.

[Franknburger]

What the hell - CDU gains Essen!

I was actually slightly surprised they didn't four years ago. They won a similar (slightly more favorable IIRC) seat in 1994. The South Side of Essen is the most bourgeois bit in the Ruhr.
II and III are misnomers - either includes four of the city's nine boroughs, the ninth makes a constituency with Mülheim.

Anyways the real shocker is the margin this year.

Three votes. 59043 to 59040.

RECOUNT !

[Franknburger]

Wahlrecht.de reports an interesting fact - The CSU will probably get indirect overhang mandates. As almost 17% of Bavarian votes remain unconsidered since they fall on parties that missed the 5% threshold, the CSU will in first (state-by-state) distribution be entitled to at least 56 seats. However, participation in Bavaria was below federal average, meaning that the CSU may in federal distribution be entitled to less than these 56 seats,