2013 Elections in Germany

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It is the lower of the two numbers. So, in Bavaria, it would be 2,000 signatures. In a smaller state, e.g. Bremen, which should have no more than 400,000 eligible voters, it is 400 signatures.

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For those interested, here a run-down on some of the smaller parties (not that they have much of a chance to pass the 5% threshold). When giving the ranks in the 2009 federal and EP elections, I count CDU and CSU as one party:

5. PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ (Tierschutzpartei)
Party HUMAN-ENVURONMENT-ANIMAL PROTECTON - Acronym MUT (=courage). The largest of the "also ran"-field. Came in 8th in the 2009 federal election (0.5% of votes), and  in the 2009 EP election (1.1% of votes). Roughly a quarter of their party programme is on animal protection. Otherwise, they are somewhere in-between SPD and Greens.

8. DIE REPUBLIKANER (REP)
Founded in 1982 as a right-wing CSU split-up. National-conservative, anti-EU and anti-immigration. While not openly Neo-Nazi, they occasionally serve as alternative for Neo-Nazis if NPD or DVU are not on the ballot. Had their best times in the early 1990s (10.9% in the Baden-Wurttemberg state election 1992, 7.5% in Berlin 1989, 4.9% in Bavaria 1990), but are in steady decline since then (among others, because their voters are gradually passing away). Came in 9th in the 2009 federal election (0.4%) and seventh in the 2009 EP election (1.3 %, NPD not on the ballot).

6. Familien-Partei Deutschlands (FAMILIE)
Family-Party: Focus on strengthening parental rights & finances (child allowances, pension awards for time spent in childcare, public early childhood care, simplifying adoptions, etc.) for all parents, irrespectively of sexual orientation and legal status (married / partnership / single). Otherwise centrist. Came in 11th in the 2009 federal election (0.3%) and 9th in the 2009 EP election (1.0 %).

15. Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (ÖDP)
Ecologic-Democratic Party: Split from the Greens in 1982, and tends to be more euro-sceptic and socially conservative than the latter. Relevant in Bavaria (more than 300 seats in local assemblies, around 2% in state elections). Came in 10th in the 2009 federal election (0.4%) and 12th in the 2009 EP election (0.5%)

7. RENTNER Partei Deutschland (RENTNER)
Pensioners Party. 13th in the 2009 Federal election (0.1%), 11th in the 2009 EP election (0.8%).

9. Bündnis 21/RRP (Bündnis 21/RRP)
Originally Rentner & Renterinnen-Partei (RRP) - Party of Pensioners (m) and Pensioners (f). For reasons beyond my scope of understanding and interest, a planned merger with the Rentner-Partei in 2012 did not work out, so both parties continue to run separately. RRP came in 12th in the 2009 federal election (0.2%) and 14th in the 2009 EP election (0.4 %)   

14. Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Die PARTEI)
Party for Labour, Rule of Law, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites and Grass-roots Initiative (Acronym PARTEI=party). Joke party created by TITANIC satirical magazine. Central programme points include re-erection of the Berlin Wall, a quota for lazy people,  and "Learning from Greece". It was not admitted to the 2009 federal election, but has participated in several state  elections afterwards (Berlin 0.9%, Hamburg 0.7%, Saarland 0.5%,  Mecklenburg-Pomerania 0.2%).  This spring, they gained their first seat in the Lübeck city council (1.3 %). Should pick up quite some of the young educated urban vote, at the expense of Pirates, Linke, possibly also Greens.

Other parties that have already participated in the 2009 federal and/or EP elections:

2. Bayernpartei (BP) [0.1% / --]
1. Die Violetten (DIE VIOLETTEN - spiritual) [0,1 % / 0.2%]
4. Ab jetzt…Demokratie durch Volksabstimmung (Volksabstimmung - Direct Democracy) [0.1/0.3]
17. Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität (BüSo) [0.1/0.0]
18. Partei Bibeltreuer Christen (PBC - Bible-true Christians) [0.1/0.3]
22. Deutsche Kommunistische Partei (DKP) [0.0/0.1]
23. Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands (MLPD) [0.1/--]
24. Partei für Soziale Gleichheit, Sektion der Vierten Internationale (PSG) [0.0/0.0]
28. Feministische Partei DIE FRAUEN (DIE FRAUEN - feminist) [--/0.3]

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While not apparent at first sight, the CDU appears to have taken some hits from the Snowden affair fallout. It is holiday season in northern Germany, which should depress SPD and Green polling figures, and boost CDU. In fact, that has also been the case 1-2 weeks ago, in the earlier polls.
However, in the latest poll average, CDU has just gained 0.5% compared to mid/late June, and the SPD, which in principle should be on a temporary decline until their electorate comes back from the beaches, is showing equal gains.
The pattern is becoming more obvious if you look at the raw data published by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (they are the only ones publishing also their actual polling and not just an 'edited' version) for June 7, June 28 and July 12:

CDU:      45 - 50 -44
SPD:      29 - 25 -26
Green:   12 - 11- 13
FDP:       2 -   3 -  4  (with all their faults, the FDP is still a civil rights party)
Left:       5 -   5 -  6
AfD:       3  -  2-   2

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An alternative explanation for the recent polls (maybe I'm too optimistic) could be that the German pollsters have learnt their lesson and factor in all the effects of the holiday season in Northern Germany.

Pollsters are definitely to some extent factoring in holiday season effects into their projections. In spite of a 4% SPD dip in raw polling results from June 7 to June 28, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projected them unchanged at 26%.
The problem is more general - with a reasonable portion of the electorate out of reach for (landline) pollsters, it becomes difficult to pick up trends.

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According to the new FORSA poll, CDU/CSU-FDP will be re-elected:

41% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
12% Greens
  9% Left
  5% FDP
  4% Pirates
  7% Others

46% CDU/CSU-FDP vs. 43% SPD-Greens-Left.

Pirates seem to be gaining at the expense of the Greens.

FORSA is one out of the five polls that have been published over the last week, and it has by far the worst results for SPD & Greens. Here is the latest "Poll of polls", including GMS (July 16), infratest dimap (July 19), Emnid (July 21), TNS (July 23) and today's FORSA:

CDU        40.2
SPD        24.8
Greens    13.2
Linke        7.6
FDP          5.0
AfD          2.5 (not shown separately by FORSA)
Pirates     2.8 (not shown separately by infratest dimap)

45.2 CDU/CSU/FDP vs. 45.6 SPD/Greens/Linke.

I would caution anybody to drawing already conclusions. We are still in the middle of the summer holiday season. While northerners are gradually returning home, school holidays in North-Rhine Westfalia and most Eastern states, and annual summer closure of the main car plants have just commenced. As such, the CDU is still likely to be overestimated (the turnaround shall come in around 2 weeks), and Linke figures may for the coming weeks be rather unreliable.

Having said that, I am also sceptical on the Greens and in fact myself considering to vote for the Pirates. So far, the Greens have positioned themselves as a kind of animal-protection-minded SPD, focusing on raising minimum wages, and tax increases  to fund infrastructure investment (pretty stupid, since most of the infrastructure investments over the last years have been useless money-burners á la Stuttgart 21 and Berlin-Brandenburg airport). Their election posters are crappy and missing out their core competencies. Nothing on overdue, sensible reform of energy markets (while the current government has aggravated the mess, quite some of it is due to flaws in the original legislation that was enacted when current Green party leader Trittin was Minister of Environment). Hardly forward-looking, fresh ideas so far. And the Pirates are still the only party that dares to call for legalising marijuana (which could earn the government quite some tax revenue, while at the same time reducing law enforcement costs).
As such, as long as either CDU/FDP or CDU/SPD remain to be the most likely election outcomes, I might well decide to send the Greens a clear message to stop moving backwards. However, let's first await the debates..

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... and tax increases  to fund infrastructure investment (pretty stupid, since most of the infrastructure investments over the last years have been useless money-burners á la Stuttgart 21 and Berlin-Brandenburg airport).

So you would rather let the country break down in ruins. The rain dropping through the roof into the classrooms. Children not learning to swim because public swimming pools are closed. Trucks transporting large amounts of chemicals which would be suitable for railway transport, but railways are "overcrowded". Rents rising into the sky in the cities because there are (almost) no public housing projects anymore.

Germany actually is running up a huge deficit every year when you account for amortization of public infrastructure. That is, we are living from the substance. Speaking only about money-burners (which S21 and BBI most probably are) gives only a small part of the picture.

Your points are legitimate, and you deserve an answer. The short answer is "No", but the longer one gets much more complicated.
Before I start with the long answer, may I suggest that you look at this series of articles, which I came across via links posted in one of the Detroit bankruptcy threads (thanks TrainInTheDistance).

But allow me to already make one point: We had a similar (and at that time legitimate) debate around 2005, which lead to the Grand Coalition increasing VAT by three points from 16% to 19%. If that massive increase, combined with current record-low unemployment and social security expenditure, was not enough, I would first like to see a detailed analysis of what went wrong before emerging on the next tax increase. I would also like to have some safeguards installed to ensure the now proposed tax increase round will not go equally wrong, but achieve the postulated objective of strengthening community finances for provision of essential services (note that the stress here is on "essential services", which, in my opinion, do not include airports or philharmonies).

Oh, and the 'lack of freight railroad capacity" is directly linked to Stuttgart 21, because the project that was not financed, as funds were already earmarked for Stuttgart 21, was a new double-rail freight-only line along the Upper Rhine, to take some of the Rotterdam-Bale (- Northern Italy) traffic off the roads. And quite some of that traffic is - yes - chemicals (Sandoz, BASF, etc.).

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Here is the latest "Poll of polls", including GMS (July 16), infratest dimap (July 19), Emnid (July 21), TNS (July 23) and today's FORSA:

CDU        40.2
SPD        24.8
Greens    13.2
Linke        7.6
FDP          5.0
AfD          2.5 (not shown separately by FORSA)
Pirates     2.8 (not shown separately by infratest dimap)

45.2 CDU/CSU/FDP vs. 45.6 SPD/Greens/Linke.

Time for the weekly poll update. 5 new polls (EMNID 28.7., FORSA 31.7., TNS 31.7., infratest 1.8., FG Wahlen 2.8.). Poll of Polls:

CDU        40.4
SPD        25.2
Greens    13.6
Linke        7.4
FDP          4.8
AfD*         2.4
Pirates*    2.4

* Apparently, pollsters stop showing results at or below 2%. In polls without separate results for Pirates or AfD (three in each case), I have put them at 2%.

Pretty stable, but also presumably pretty much edited results. FG Wahlen raw data is fluctuating heavily, e.g. CDU 43% in May, 50% in June, now at 41%, SPD 31/25/31.

Summer holidays have reached their peak. They are finishing now in the north, while Bayern and Baden-Würtemberg have just started. Over the next weeks, raw poll data should favour SPD and Greens, and underestimate CDU and Linke.

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Congratulations to him on pissing off all of one of the SPD's two core regions...in a single sentence. Has he managed to annoy anyone in the Ruhr yet?

You mean, after he killed the red-green state government of North Rhine-Westphalia in 2005, had the SPD losing 6% there, and saw himself replaced as state PM by the first CDU PM in forty years?

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Now unsourced speculation about Merkel retiring in 2016, which she's denying. If she intends to serve the full four year term, then presumably that means part of a fourth?

Most likely a full third term means she would continue until at least 2019.

The short list of her possible successors is clear: von der Leyen, Altmaier, Pofalla, McAllister. The first three were all born in 1958  / 1959. If Merkel does not step down in 2016 but continues to  2019, they will be too old for one-full and two half terms. McAllister, OTOH, was born in 1971, and might take over in 2016 or 2019, but as well  wait until 2023 or so. As such, the 2016 retirement leaves more options for succession than serving the full term.

Asides, Merkel's husband was born in 1949, and would turn 70 in 2019, which might be a bit old to embark on the envisaged extensive travelling.

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Tender, please! Either publish all incoming polls, or put individual polls into context. Infratest dimap has continuously been showing 2-3% more for the CDU than all other pollsters. And their latest results are exactly the same as last week, with the exception of -1% SPD and +1% Pirates.

Here is the latest-"poll of polls", covering 3 more new entries in addition to infratest dimap: Emnid (3.8.), TNS (5.8.), FORSA (7.8.) (Previous "poll of polls" in brackets):

CDU:        40.3 (40.4)
SPD:        24.8 (25.2)
Grüne:     13.5 (13.6)
Linke:        7.5  (7.4)
FDP:          5.0  (4.8 )
Pirates       2.8 (2.4)
AfD            2.3 (2.4)

It is called "Sommerloch"! Holiday season, nothing happening. Things will only start to get moving in 2-3 weeks from now - if at all. Otherwise, we will all be in for a long election night ...

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In a previous post, I had been mocking about the crappy Green election posters. Here a few examples. First the original concept, with the top candidates:

Jürgen Trittin: "We bring new energy" (and you?)


Katrin Goering Eckhardt: "For courage, against poverty" (and you?)

Some thematic posters, on which the concept is half-way working:

"I say Hello Kita" (and you?)  [KITA=pre-school children day-care center]


"I don't want your debt" (and you?)


"What the farmer does not know, I won't eat" (and you?) [Variation of the Low-Saxon proverb "Wat de Buur net kennt, fret he net" - "A farmer only eats what he knows" -  which is used to depict a  conservative, traditionalist attitude].

And here it is getting really wild:

"My motha becomes boss" (and you?)


"Human before bank"  (and you?)

I still have no clue whom this campaign shall target. Thematically, there is something in it for everybody, from fiscal conservatives to globalisation critics. The picture language of the thematic posters  addresses potential protest (Linke and Pirate) voters, but they forgot to take  up any of the Pirate issues. The personality posters are for classical mid-age to elder voters, without adapting the second posters' text message to that group.
Another example of this balancing act (I saved the best for last):

"For fair rent instead of yield" (and you?)

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Not that the Greens are the only ones running a crappy campaign. In fact, they are even ranked comparatively well in blogs of the German advertisement community.

Here is the FDP:

Dr. Philipp Rösler. Strong Centre. Only with us.


Rainer Brüderle. To keep Germany strong. Only with us.


Safe money. Only with us.

Innovation is something different.. Anyway, to add a grass-roots element, the FDP is offering an online tool for creating your own FDP poster. Some prototypes:

"Unburdening youngsters. by debt reduction. Well done, FDP." (Well done, Germany)
[The kid looks rather medium rare]


Rainer Brüderle: "Four good years for Germany. Well done, FDP." (Well done, Germany)

Unsurprisingly, not only FDP sympathisers have made use of the tool:

Rainer B., wine connoisseur from Landau: "Kicked-of sexism debate. Well done, FDP." (Well done, Germany.)
[Relates to Brüderle half-drunk making sexual advances on a female journalist during an unofficial press meeting]


FDP (65), party from Germany: "Got up from every crash.Well done, FDP." (Well done, Germany.)
Former FDP chairmen Guido Westerwelle and Jürgen Möllemann. Möllemann, a passionate parachute jumper, in 2003 died from a jump when his parachute did not open. On the day of his death, his parliamentary immunity had been revoked for alleged tax evasion and undocumented party financing in relation to arms deals.

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Yeah, the Pirates are definitely having the best posters.

A few more examples. All people on the posters are actual members, and the design has been done by volunteers:


"Father -  Father- Child"
 "We are striving for equal recognition of all models of life, where people take responsibility for each other"


"Why do I still not have Internet here?"

"For developing a future-oriented digital infrastructure all over the country (-side)."

 

"Markets need rules - People need Freedom"

"For an economic policy that aims at development opportunities and well-being of all humans."


"Basic income - this should be allowed to be said"

"Basic income secures existence and creates space for innovation".


"Addiction policy instead of War on Drugs"

"For a pragmatic addiction policy that educates consumers and protects non-consumers (of drugs)"


"Who is actually employing whom?"

"Corruption and patronage endanger parliamentary independence. We support a public register on lobbyists."


"Education: A good investment"

"Education is one of the most important German resources and the base of our social fabric. Education is our future. Reduce performance pressure, enhance individualised support."


"Why am I hanging out here? - You won't go voting anyway."

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Let's continue with the CDU:


"Together successful".

They have a series of thematic posters as well. As a blogger remarks: 100% white ethnic Germans, optimistically looking forward. It is all "Friede, Freude, Eierkuchen" (lit. "peace, joy and pancakes", internet fora offer "sunshine & lollipops" or "everything is hunky-dory" as English-language equivalents):
 
"Each family is different. And of special importance to us" (CDU - together successful).


"Good work and new ideas. This will keep Germany strong."  (CDU - together successful).


"Solid finances are important. Because we are thinking about tomorrow." (CDU - together successful). [Quiz: What might be the CDU's main target group?]


"Growth needs farsightedness. And a stable Euro" (CDU - together successful).

They obviously had the photo and the slogan still lying around somewhere. Never mind the two don't fit together....

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On with the SPD: Here you get two campaigns at the price of one, and none of the two includes Per Steinbrück! Their slogan is also a  bit particular: "Das WIR entscheidet! - "The 'we'/'us' decides" 'We'/'us' as in "There is more than the candidate that matters". At least they are realistic...

So, here comes the first attempt - let's go negative!

"Best government since (German) unitiy...?" "Vote for change now"


"Privacy - unknown terrain for Merkel?" "Vote  down black-yellow"

They have positive messages as well (and real people on the photos, not models as has the CDU):

"WE for more places in pre-school day-care"


"WE for payable rent"


"WE for legal minimum wages"


"WE for old age free of poverty"  (SPD: The WE decides.)

And, of course, it didn't take long for the first parodies to appear:

"Our candidate does not look any better" - "You want alternatives? Forget it" (SPD: The CONFUSED decides.)


"WE for Hartz IV and unpaid labour"  (SPD: The CONFUSED decides.)

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"Each family is different. And of special importance to us" (CDU - together successful).

Doesn't look like a very 'different' family to me.

Yep. This German blog has been contrasting the "Friede, Freude, Eierkuchen" CDU poster with the following screenshot from a major German online retailer's kitchen furniture catalogue:
.

Compared to how the Pirates, Greens and SPD understand " family", the CDU is rather, eh, conservative...

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AfD has been quite busy in plastering the Hamburg periphery with their posters.

A few more:

"Immigration needs strict rules" (AfD spokeswoman Dr. Frauke Petry)


"The Euro ruins Europe. Including us". (AfD chairman Prof. Dr. Bernd Lucke)

The demographics they are targeting are typically not too fond of Prof. Dr.s,. One of the reasons they are not really gaining traction.

And the parodies are, of course, already out as well:

"We know the alternative to the Euro! Other junk-bonds!"

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German election billboards seem easy enough to make: take a stock photo, add a party logo somewhere, and then attach a corny partisan message of some kind.

In fact, you sometimes don't even need a photo. These are for the Bibliophiles: Social science teachers of all countries, unite!



"Revolution? No, just going with the times: 10 Euro legal minimum wage immediately, 1050 Euro minimum pension, introduce millionaire tax, energy and rent payable for everyone, basic income instead of Hartz IV, ban arms exports!"



"Sharing is fun: Millionaire-tax!"

"The East votes red. Sure!"

"Don't wait any longer! Abolish two-class medicine!"

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You don't have to get nostalgic (even though the old CDU posters are great).

Retro is also on offer this year:


Their homepage is a bit anachronistic - posters only available zipped for download, so this beautiful motive is only available via street photograph:
 

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German election billboards seem easy enough to make: take a stock photo, add a party logo somewhere, and then attach a corny partisan message of some kind.

I suppose if they were anything else than that someone would almost certainly be offended by something which would in turn lead to huge amount of shallow public outrage.

You mean, like with this poster from 2009:


"The only reason to choose/elect black"

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The holiday season is gradually coming to an end, and the "hot phase" of campaigning begins:
 
- Angela Merkel has volunteered as high school teacher, enlightening a school class in Berlin on life in the former GDR, That's probably the closest she will ever get to taxi-driving....
 
- Her Chief of Staff, Pofalla, has, after a failed attempt to blame everything on former SPD Minister of Foreign Affairs, Steinmeier, now officially declared the whole affair on German cooperation with the NSA to be finished. I am not sure this will be the last thing we hear from the affair. Steinmeier -understandably- seems pretty pissed and will probably have a few more comments...

- CSU head and Bavarian PM Seehofer has for the x-th time called for introducing a toll on foreign passenger cars that are using German motorways (a little bit of Austrian-bashing is obviously still expected to thrill the Bavarian electorate). Leading SPD and Grüne politicians have for the y-th time reminded Seehofer that such a toll is not permitted under EU regulation (yawn..).

- The main headline, however, is that the Mainz central railway station has to be temporarily closed due to understaffing of the regional network control centre (8 out of 15 control staff are currently on holiday or ill). Another blow for Minister of Transport Ramsauer (CSU)  after the Stuttgart 21, Berlin-Brandenburg airport, and Kiel Canal closure disasters.
While such transport-related issues typically don't have much of a national impact, they can significantly influence local voting in the areas concerned. Berlin (5% swing from SPD to Greens after the airport mess has become obvious) and Schleswig-Holstein (substantial CDU losses in this Spring's local elections in areas affected by the Kiel Canal closure and the controversial Fehmarnbelt link) are points in case. Considering that the Rhein-Main region, of which Mainz forms part,  contains some 5% of the total German population, this affair might cost the CDU 2-3 decimals, which is not insignificant in a close election.
[Midas, what impact do you think the Mainz station closure will have on the Rhein-Main region's vote ?]

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The latest one from the Greens:



The picture shows Transport Minister Ramsauer:
"Staff shortage? I only understand train-station" - a German colloquial meaning "I don't (want to) get it".

[According to Wikipedia, the colloquial emerged at the end of WW I among German soldiers. Tired of the war, the only thing they wanted to speak about was returning home. So they only understood "train station" (->the trip home), nothing else.]

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In British English, a 'shyster' basically, I'm assuming.

The correct term is actually Amigo.

While the current case is much more banal, it ties in with an established pattern that, among others, also involved CSU "Übervater" Franz-Josef Strauss and his son, Max Strauss.

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There have also been Emnid and INSA polls last week, as well pretty stable and pointing towards a possible tie between CDU-FDP and SPD-Greens-Linke (I may post averages later, when I have more time).

The ARD poll (infratest dimap) also asked for coalition preferences. Among CDU voters, the split was:
CDU-FDP       31%
CDU-SPD       31%
CDU-Greens  27%

This means that about one-third of CDU voters, or about 12% of all voters, may consider a FDP "loan vote". How many of them will actually vote FDP is difficult to estimate.  In Lower Saxony this January, it was nearly 50%, while long-term observations rather point to 20-25%.
As such, the FDP loan vote may be anything between 2.5 and 6 per cent.
Judged by raw polling data published by ZDF (FG Wahlen), generic FDP support is around 3%. So the FDP total (generic loan) should range anywhere between 5.5 and 9 per cent.

The FDP loan vote is one of the most tricky questions. It obviously depends on how many potential loan voters assume the FDP to already be safely in, which in turn depends on the polling coming out over the next weeks (a  paradox situation- the higher FDP polling results, the lower their vote is probably to get). It also depends whether potential loan voters see a realistic chance for the CDU-FDP coalition gaining majority, or assume a grand coalition as most likely outcome. In the latter case, they would rather withhold the loan in order to strengthen the CDU's weight within a grand coalition.

Gemütlich means "cosy".

A blog that tried to find an appropriate transaction also offered "comfortable", "snug", "homely", "placid",  "unhurried" and "relaxed". The best translation is probably ""the feeling of sitting in front of a fire with a glass of port"
The literal translation would be "be-mood-like" (as "in the mood", "mood -> modest").

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Interesting new EMNID polls: They have done a Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll for a local newspaper. As the third-smallest state, it typically does not get much weight in national polling, so this poll may help to gain some insight into trends in the East.  Moreover, it is Angela Merkel's 'home state'. This is the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll since the 2009 federal election:

CDU              36 (+3)
FDP                2  (-8)
CDU-FDP       38 (-5)

SPD              24 (+7.5)
Greens           6 (+0.5)
SPD-Greens  30 (+8)

Linke            23 (-6)
NPD               3 (--)
Pirates           2 (--)
AfD                2 (+2)
others            2 (+1)

Quite a swing from Linke to SPD. CDU collects back FDP "loan votes" (that may be re-loaned again
in autumn), but loses to both SPD and AfD.

If these results are representative for the East as a whole (and a Brandenburg poll from May with similar trends suggests they may well be), the Linke, but also CDU may face unpleasant surprises in the East in the upcoming federal election.

On to the latest EMNID national poll. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern results are included, but the MV interviews were carried out on top of the regular sample. Changes to previous week in brackets:

CDU        40 (-1)
SPD        24 (-1)
Greens    12 (-1)
Linke        8 (--)
FDP          6 (+1)
Pirates     4 (+1)
AfD          1 (-2)
Others     5 (+2)

It is still holiday season in major states (NRW, BW, BY, SAT, SN, TH), so trends should not be over-interpreted. Nevertheless, two things are worth noting:

1.) This is the first poll for some time showing the Pirates at 4%. If other polls come with similar results, we might get a Pirate loan vote effect as well - the easiest way to prevent a black-yellow majority is getting the Pirates above the 5% threshold. This could be quite a game changer (and pollsters' nightmare).
2.) 5% "others", and AfD in decline, might indicate right-wing disappointment with "tame Prof. Dr.s", and a trend towards NPD and REPs instead. It is also worth noting that NPD support in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has obviously not suffered from the NSU affair (neo-Nazi terrorist attacks against Turkish small business owners), and we have to account for a possible "shy NPD" effect.