1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections

[dudeabides]

Pretend it's the summer prior to elections 1960-2012. Try to pretend you don't know the outcome and you are predicting the election results. What would you predict?

Discuss with maps.

I'll go first:

1960:
Richard Nixon (R) 52% 288 EV
John F. Kennedy (D) 47% 249 EV

1964:
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 57% 395 EV
Barry Goldwater (R) 42% 143 EV

1968:
Richard Nixon (R) 55% 337 EV
Hubert Humphrey (D) 42% 191 EV
George Wallace (I) 3% 10 EV

1972:
Richard Nixon (R) 59% 440 EV
George McGovern (D) 40% 98 EV

1976:
Gerald R. Ford (R) 51% 295 EV
Jimmy Carter (D) 48% 243 EV

1980:
Ronald Reagan (R) 58% 475 EV
Jimmy Carter (D) 41% 63 EV

1984:
Ronald Reagan (R) 65% 525 EV
Walter Mondale (D) 34% 13 EV

1988:
George Bush (R) 53% 314 EV
Michael Dukakis (D) 46% 224 EV

1992:
Bill Clinton (R) 35% 298 EV
George Bush (R) 34% 189 EV
Ross Perot (I) 30% 51 EV

1996:
Bill Clinton (D) 51% 332 EV
Bob Dole (R) 43% 206 EV
Ross Perot (I) 6% 0 EV

2000:
Al Gore (D) 51% 278 EV
George W. Bush (R) 48% 260 EV

2004:
George W. Bush (R) 55% 311 EV
John Kerry (D) 44% 227 EV

2008:
Barack Obama (D) 52% 307 EV
John McCain (R) 47% 231 EV

2012:
Barack Obama (D) 50% 281 EV
Mitt Romney (R) 49% 257 EV

[dudeabides]

1960-1984 on here

1960

Nixon 296 51%
JFK    241  48%


1964

LBJ 516     66%
Goldwater 22 33%


1968

Nixon 364  51%
Humphrey 163 40%
Wallace  17     8%

1972

Nixon 507    60%
McGovern 31 39%

1976(Ford as nominee)

Carter 357  54%
Ford 181     45%

1976(Reagan as nominee)

Reagan 271 49.8%
Carter   267  49.7%


1980

Reagan 418  54%
Carter 120    40%
Anderson 0    5%

1984:

Reagan 535  66%
Mondale 3    33%

Awesome!

[dudeabides]

I love this, thanks everyone!

1960
Nixon (R) over Kennedy (D)
Reasoning: Ike's popularity, Nixon's performance in the Kitchen Debate, and Kennedy's inexperience all give the GOP an edge.

1964
Johnson (D) over Goldwater (R)
Reasoning: Goldwater was too far to the right and Johnson had the momentum of the Civil Rights Movement behind him.

1968
Nixon (R) over Humphrey (D)
Reasoning: The Democrats are divided over Vietnam, the DNC was a disaster, and the Solid South is breaking up.

1972
Nixon (R) over McGovern (D)
Reasoning: I would have been supporting McGovern, but he never had a chance.

1976
Carter (D) over Ford (R)
Reasoning: High inflation and the stigma of Watergate make for a Democratic pickup.

1980
Carter (D) over Reagan (R)
Reasoning: The polls indicate a tight race midsummer in spite of Carter's weaknesses, Anderson has the potential to steal moderate Republican votes from Reagan, and Reagan's policies are similar to Goldwater's. Needless to say I would have been unpleasantly surprised.

1984
Reagan (R) over Mondale (D)
Reasoning: Mondale ran a weak campaign and Reagan ran a strong one.

1988
Bush (R) over Dukakis (D)
Reasoning: Reagan is popular and Dukakis isn't ready for the national spotlight.

1992
Clinton (D) over Bush (R)
Reasoning: Like Carter, Bush had early foreign policy successes that were obscured by a poor economy and faces a charismatic challenger in the general election.

1996
Clinton (D) over Dole (R)
Reasoning: The GOP took the heat for the government shutdown, and Clinton has long since cemented his reputation as the "comeback kid".

2000
Gore (D) over Bush (R)
Reasoning: The economy is good and Gore had a much easier path to the nomination than Bush, and so is seemingly "stronger".

2004
Kerry (D) over Bush (R)
Reasoning: A combination of Kerry's polling lead and my personal dislike for Bush would have led me to project a Democratic victory.

2008
Obama (D) over McCain (R)
Reasoning: The economy is terrible, McCain's pro-war stance is ripe for attack, and Obama has the momentum.

2012
Obama (D) over Romney (R)
Reasoning: The economy is getting better, foreign policy is going well, the polls show Obama leading heavily, and the primaries showed that even Republicans have their doubts about Romney.

You have given me some things to think about. I keep forgetting that Anderson was a Republican and Carter was in okay shape before the fall of 1980.

Where I disagree, however, is 2004. I stand by my Bush +11 win because the economy was in recovery for 18 months or more and the President had the "rally around the flag effect." I would even give Bush a larger percentage had he performed better in the debates and had Iraq been as popular in 2004 as it was in 2003.

I think there generally seems to be some consensus here that we all would have thought 1992 would have been closer than it was. Had Perot not dropped out and brought up a conspiracy theory to justify ending his campaign in the summer of 1992, he probably would have made it even closer. What's interesting is, at the time, there was a school of thought that Bush would win re-election.

I think there also seems to be consensus that everyone would know LBJ, Nixon, Clinton, and Reagan were going to win re-election - that is pretty consistent with what people actually felt in those years.